What is a good EA? - page 2

 
Alain Verleyen #:

MetaQuotes-Demo is not a good server to backtest your EA. You should use a broker account.

What testing mode is used, real ticks ?

Hi Alain,


Thanks for your reply, I don't know my way round the site just yet and this is my first post.

I know what I have written is not the finished product, but I was interested to know what the standard of EA's is.

I ran the test for 12 months, the profitability has come down, but it still makes a profit.

I don't know if this is good or not, obviously good it's making a profit, but I don't know if it is worth pursuing if others are making larger profits.

Below is 12 months worth, modelling every tick

Thanks

Mike

Strategy Tester Report
CMCMarkets-MT5-DEMO (Build 5430)
Settings
Expert: mm_try5
Symbol: GBPUSD
Period: M5 (2024.01.01 - 2024.12.21)
Inputs: bb_period=20
bb_deviation=1.5
lot_size=0.1
magic_number=54321
trailing_stop=10
stop_loss=20
take_profit=200
trend_ma_period=50
sl_time=300000
diff_compare=7
BandWidth=0.0025
Company: MetaQuotes Ltd.
Currency: profit in pips
Initial Deposit: 5 000.00
Leverage: 1:100
Results
History Quality: 100%
Bars: 47679 Ticks: 12362024 Symbols: 1
Total Net Profit: 66.20 Balance Drawdown Absolute: 3.70 Equity Drawdown Absolute: 6.10
Gross Profit: 122.70 Balance Drawdown Maximal: 24.00 (0.48%) Equity Drawdown Maximal: 32.10 (0.64%)
Gross Loss: -56.50 Balance Drawdown Relative: 0.48% (24.00) Equity Drawdown Relative: 0.64% (32.10)
Profit Factor: 2.17 Expected Payoff: 3.48 Margin Level: 4993.90%
Recovery Factor: 2.06 Sharpe Ratio: 36.22 Z-Score: 1.08 (71.99%)
AHPR: 1.0007 (0.07%) LR Correlation: 0.65 OnTester result: 0
GHPR: 1.0007 (0.07%) LR Standard Error: 15.55
Total Trades: 19 Short Trades (won %): 0 (0.00%) Long Trades (won %): 19 (57.89%)
Total Deals: 38 Profit Trades (% of total): 11 (57.89%) Loss Trades (% of total): 8 (42.11%)
Largest profit trade: 52.20 Largest loss trade: -14.50
Average profit trade: 11.15 Average loss trade: -7.06
Maximum consecutive wins ($): 3 (11.00) Maximum consecutive losses ($): 2 (-24.00)
Maximal consecutive profit (count): 56.20 (2) Maximal consecutive loss (count): -24.00 (2)
Average consecutive wins: 2 Average consecutive losses: 1
Graph
Graph
Correlation (Profits,MFE): 0.96 Correlation (Profits,MAE): 0.60 Correlation (MFE,MAE): 0.4226
Graph
Minimal position holding time: 0:00:21 Maximal position holding time: 1:39:26 Average position holding time: 0:12:03
Graph
Orders
Open Time Order Symbol Type Volume Price S / L T / P Time State Comment
2024.01.16 18:10:00 2 GBPUSD buy 0.1 / 0.1 1.26508 1.26308 1.28508 2024.01.16 18:10:00 filled SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.01.16 18:29:32 3 GBPUSD sell 0.1 / 0.1 1.26693 2024.01.16 18:29:32 filled
2024.01.24 16:55:00 4 GBPUSD buy 0.1 / 0.1 1.27500 1.27300 1.29500 2024.01.24 16:55:00 filled SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.01.24 16:56:40 5 GBPUSD sell 0.1 / 0.1 1.27481 2024.01.24 16:56:40 filled
2024.01.25 15:40:00 6 GBPUSD buy 0.1 / 0.1 1.27305 1.27105 1.29305 2024.01.25 15:40:00 filled SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.01.25 15:40:44 7 GBPUSD sell 0.1 / 0.1 1.27342 2024.01.25 15:40:44 filled
2024.02.01 00:10:00 8 GBPUSD buy 0.1 / 0.1 1.26812 1.26612 1.28812 2024.02.01 00:10:00 filled SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.02.01 00:11:30 9 GBPUSD sell 0.1 / 0.1 1.26690 2024.02.01 00:11:30 filled sl 1.26690
2024.02.01 17:10:00 10 GBPUSD buy 0.1 / 0.1 1.26678 1.26478 1.28678 2024.02.01 17:10:00 filled SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.02.01 17:13:42 11 GBPUSD sell 0.1 / 0.1 1.26583 2024.02.01 17:13:42 filled sl 1.26583
2024.03.01 17:10:00 12 GBPUSD buy 0.1 / 0.1 1.26156 1.25956 1.28156 2024.03.01 17:10:00 filled SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.03.01 17:30:42 13 GBPUSD sell 0.1 / 0.1 1.26392 2024.03.01 17:30:42 filled
2024.03.12 14:40:00 14 GBPUSD buy 0.1 / 0.1 1.27973 1.27773 1.29973 2024.03.12 14:40:00 filled SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.03.12 14:42:38 15 GBPUSD sell 0.1 / 0.1 1.27981 2024.03.12 14:42:38 filled
2024.04.10 15:55:00 16 GBPUSD buy 0.1 / 0.1 1.26174 1.25974 1.28174 2024.04.10 15:55:00 filled SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.04.10 16:00:37 17 GBPUSD sell 0.1 / 0.1 1.26072 2024.04.10 16:00:37 filled sl 1.26072
2024.05.01 21:10:00 18 GBPUSD buy 0.1 / 0.1 1.24924 1.24724 1.26924 2024.05.01 21:10:00 filled SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.05.01 21:10:21 19 GBPUSD sell 0.1 / 0.1 1.24957 2024.05.01 21:10:21 filled
2024.05.09 14:45:00 20 GBPUSD buy 0.1 / 0.1 1.24585 1.24385 1.26585 2024.05.09 14:45:00 filled SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.05.09 14:49:39 21 GBPUSD sell 0.1 / 0.1 1.24588 2024.05.09 14:49:39 filled sl 1.24588
2024.05.14 15:40:00 22 GBPUSD buy 0.1 / 0.1 1.25532 1.25332 1.27532 2024.05.14 15:40:00 filled SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.05.14 15:43:02 23 GBPUSD sell 0.1 / 0.1 1.25606 2024.05.14 15:43:02 filled
2024.06.13 15:40:00 24 GBPUSD buy 0.1 / 0.1 1.27883 1.27683 1.29883 2024.06.13 15:40:00 filled SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.06.13 15:40:30 25 GBPUSD sell 0.1 / 0.1 1.27879 2024.06.13 15:40:30 filled
2024.06.28 15:40:00 26 GBPUSD buy 0.1 / 0.1 1.26520 1.26320 1.28520 2024.06.28 15:40:00 filled SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.06.28 15:43:16 27 GBPUSD sell 0.1 / 0.1 1.26418 2024.06.28 15:43:16 filled sl 1.26418
2024.07.05 15:40:00 28 GBPUSD buy 0.1 / 0.1 1.27869 1.27669 1.29869 2024.07.05 15:40:00 filled SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.07.05 15:41:08 29 GBPUSD sell 0.1 / 0.1 1.27926 2024.07.05 15:41:08 filled
2024.08.01 14:10:00 30 GBPUSD buy 0.1 / 0.1 1.27633 1.27433 1.29633 2024.08.01 14:10:00 filled SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.08.01 14:28:24 31 GBPUSD sell 0.1 / 0.1 1.27667 2024.08.01 14:28:24 filled sl 1.27667
2024.08.01 15:40:00 32 GBPUSD buy 0.1 / 0.1 1.28117 1.27917 1.30117 2024.08.01 15:40:00 filled SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.08.01 16:02:37 33 GBPUSD sell 0.1 / 0.1 1.28025 2024.08.01 16:02:37 filled sl 1.28025
2024.08.02 15:40:00 34 GBPUSD buy 0.1 / 0.1 1.27458 1.27258 1.29458 2024.08.02 15:40:00 filled SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.08.02 15:58:04 35 GBPUSD sell 0.1 / 0.1 1.27980 2024.08.02 15:58:04 filled sl 1.27980
2024.08.07 00:10:00 36 GBPUSD buy 0.1 / 0.1 1.26911 1.26711 1.28911 2024.08.07 00:10:00 filled SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.08.07 01:49:26 37 GBPUSD sell 0.1 / 0.1 1.26951 2024.08.07 01:49:26 filled
2024.08.14 15:40:00 38 GBPUSD buy 0.1 / 0.1 1.28389 1.28189 1.30389 2024.08.14 15:40:00 filled SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.08.14 15:41:26 39 GBPUSD sell 0.1 / 0.1 1.28385 2024.08.14 15:41:26 filled
Deals
Time Deal Symbol Type Direction Volume Price Order Commission Swap Profit Balance Comment
2024.01.01 00:00:00 1 balance 0.00 0.00 5 000.00 5 000.00
2024.01.16 18:10:00 2 GBPUSD buy in 0.1 1.26508 2 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 000.00 SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.01.16 18:29:32 3 GBPUSD sell out 0.1 1.26693 3 0.00 0.00 18.50 5 018.50
2024.01.24 16:55:00 4 GBPUSD buy in 0.1 1.27500 4 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 018.50 SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.01.24 16:56:40 5 GBPUSD sell out 0.1 1.27481 5 0.00 0.00 -1.90 5 016.60
2024.01.25 15:40:00 6 GBPUSD buy in 0.1 1.27305 6 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 016.60 SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.01.25 15:40:44 7 GBPUSD sell out 0.1 1.27342 7 0.00 0.00 3.70 5 020.30
2024.02.01 00:10:00 8 GBPUSD buy in 0.1 1.26812 8 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 020.30 SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.02.01 00:11:30 9 GBPUSD sell out 0.1 1.26667 9 0.00 0.00 -14.50 5 005.80 sl 1.26690
2024.02.01 17:10:00 10 GBPUSD buy in 0.1 1.26678 10 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 005.80 SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.02.01 17:13:42 11 GBPUSD sell out 0.1 1.26583 11 0.00 0.00 -9.50 4 996.30 sl 1.26583
2024.03.01 17:10:00 12 GBPUSD buy in 0.1 1.26156 12 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 996.30 SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.03.01 17:30:42 13 GBPUSD sell out 0.1 1.26392 13 0.00 0.00 23.60 5 019.90
2024.03.12 14:40:00 14 GBPUSD buy in 0.1 1.27973 14 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 019.90 SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.03.12 14:42:38 15 GBPUSD sell out 0.1 1.27981 15 0.00 0.00 0.80 5 020.70
2024.04.10 15:55:00 16 GBPUSD buy in 0.1 1.26174 16 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 020.70 SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.04.10 16:00:37 17 GBPUSD sell out 0.1 1.26071 17 0.00 0.00 -10.30 5 010.40 sl 1.26072
2024.05.01 21:10:00 18 GBPUSD buy in 0.1 1.24924 18 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 010.40 SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.05.01 21:10:21 19 GBPUSD sell out 0.1 1.24957 19 0.00 0.00 3.30 5 013.70
2024.05.09 14:45:00 20 GBPUSD buy in 0.1 1.24585 20 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 013.70 SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.05.09 14:49:39 21 GBPUSD sell out 0.1 1.24588 21 0.00 0.00 0.30 5 014.00 sl 1.24588
2024.05.14 15:40:00 22 GBPUSD buy in 0.1 1.25532 22 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 014.00 SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.05.14 15:43:02 23 GBPUSD sell out 0.1 1.25606 23 0.00 0.00 7.40 5 021.40
2024.06.13 15:40:00 24 GBPUSD buy in 0.1 1.27883 24 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 021.40 SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.06.13 15:40:30 25 GBPUSD sell out 0.1 1.27879 25 0.00 0.00 -0.40 5 021.00
2024.06.28 15:40:00 26 GBPUSD buy in 0.1 1.26520 26 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 021.00 SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.06.28 15:43:16 27 GBPUSD sell out 0.1 1.26418 27 0.00 0.00 -10.20 5 010.80 sl 1.26418
2024.07.05 15:40:00 28 GBPUSD buy in 0.1 1.27869 28 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 010.80 SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.07.05 15:41:08 29 GBPUSD sell out 0.1 1.27926 29 0.00 0.00 5.70 5 016.50
2024.08.01 14:10:00 30 GBPUSD buy in 0.1 1.27633 30 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 016.50 SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.08.01 14:28:24 31 GBPUSD sell out 0.1 1.27665 31 0.00 0.00 3.20 5 019.70 sl 1.27667
2024.08.01 15:40:00 32 GBPUSD buy in 0.1 1.28117 32 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 019.70 SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.08.01 16:02:37 33 GBPUSD sell out 0.1 1.28024 33 0.00 0.00 -9.30 5 010.40 sl 1.28025
2024.08.02 15:40:00 34 GBPUSD buy in 0.1 1.27458 34 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 010.40 SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.08.02 15:58:04 35 GBPUSD sell out 0.1 1.27980 35 0.00 0.00 52.20 5 062.60 sl 1.27980
2024.08.07 00:10:00 36 GBPUSD buy in 0.1 1.26911 36 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 062.60 SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.08.07 01:49:26 37 GBPUSD sell out 0.1 1.26951 37 0.00 0.00 4.00 5 066.60
2024.08.14 15:40:00 38 GBPUSD buy in 0.1 1.28389 38 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 066.60 SMA crosses above BB middle
2024.08.14 15:41:26 39 GBPUSD sell out 0.1 1.28385 39 0.00 0.00 -0.40 5 066.20
0.00 0.00 66.20 5 066.20
 
Ryan L Johnson #:

Overfitting generally applies to advanced machine learning algorithms or, at least, extensive optimization. In contrast, the OP has merely implemented BB's and an MA with stops, etc. Therefore, I don't see any evidence of the OP having engaged in overfitting.

Interestingly, you rather selectively replied to only one line of my post and conveniently omitted the following line:

Obviously, I already alluded to the fact that the sample size was too small to be statistically significant.

By the way, "Anecdotally" means unscientifically when used in this context.

Overfitting is not related to machine learning specifically, ChatGPT misled you a bit. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting

"Conveniently omitted" ? I answer as I like, don't you think ? A 1 month backtest can not be promising in my view.

 
mimann #:

I know what I have written is not the finished product, but I was interested to know what the standard of EA's is.

I ran the test for 12 months, the profitability has come down, but it still makes a profit.

I don't know if this is good or not, obviously good it's making a profit, but I don't know if it is worth pursuing if others are making larger profits.

Below is 12 months worth, modelling every tick

There is no "standard" of EA's. Simple as that.

Find your way.
 
Alain Verleyen #:
Overfitting is not related to machine learning specifically, ChatGPT misled you a bit. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting

Wrong again. I don't use; nor even reference Chat-GPT although you do. And how would you know what I do? Perhaps you used Chat-GPT as an ESP remote viewing tool, and it failed you.

Please see A Concise Guide to Overfitting:

"Overfitting is one of the biggest problems you’ll face when building machine learning models. It happens when your model gets too complex and memorizes training data instead of learning patterns that work on new data."

Alain Verleyen #:
"Conveniently omitted" ? I answer as I like, don't you think ? A 1 month backtest can not be promising in my view.

It's not a matter of what you nor I think. You once again omit the word, "Anecdotally." For the definition of the word, please see anecdotal adjective - Definition, pictures, pronunciation and usage notes | Oxford Advanced Learner's Dictionary at OxfordLearnersDictionaries.com:

"[P]ossibly not true or accurate because it is based on personal accounts rather than facts or research[.]"

I once again urge you to read from my previous post:

"Just do lengthier testing to confirm that it's statistically "good." I know that's it's burdensome to test on every tick, so just do it in stages."

If reality doesn't suit your narrative, so be it.

 

This is the type of curve you'd expect from a controlled, low-risk system.

EA trading live prop challenge

Files:
1.png  45 kb
 
Jason Smith #:

This is the type of curve you'd expect from a controlled, low-risk system.

EA trading

Hi Jason,


Thanks for that, 25 consecutive trades looks pretty good, and a profit factor of 11.16, gives me an idea of what I should be aiming for.

I find the hard part is getting rid of the stopped trades, which means I'm not entering correctly.

Thanks

Mike

 
Ryan L Johnson #:

I don't know what your problem is, I am not interested to play with words. Over-fitting in this case is just when the results are too correlated to the data, which is very likely with so few trades, this EA (any EA) should be tested on several years AND live to see how it behaves.

Your last 2 posts brings nothing useful, please stay on topic.

 
Alain Verleyen #:

I don't know what your problem is, I am not interested to play with words. Over-fitting in this case is just when the results are too correlated to the data, which is very likely with so few trades, this EA (any EA) should be tested on several years AND live to see how it behaves.

Your last 2 posts brings nothing useful, please stay on topic.

Hi Alain,


It's already tested on a years data, it was mildly profitable

I'm not trying to sell it, I just wanted some advice

I now know what it takes to be a good EA, that was all I was after

Thanks

Mike

 
Back tests are a general guide and I say that loosely in no way do they replicate live trading .As you would notice with 95 % of EA time bomb martingales out there 200 % profit blah blah blah . I would say maybe drawdown holding up and you might have a chance , There is not one EA that can last running 24/5 , not a chance .If you want to stand a chance  of long term profit make several EA' s to fit different market conditions  and only trade certain times London etc and put a daily loss and daily profit on it when it hits don't go back in til the next day .  Trading is a semi decent EA backed by discipline and patience but 95 % have none  of the mentioned . 
[Deleted]  
mimann:

Hi,

This is my first post.

I have a background in computer programming and I decided to try to write an Expert Advisor.

After a few months off and on, I've created an advisor which makes a profit when I backtest.

However, the rules are so tight it only makes a few trades a month, but it does make a profit.

This is the result of:

GBPUSD

lot size 0.1

5,000 bank

01-Jan-2024 - 01-Feb-2024

8 trades

What does a good EA look like, how profitable should it be?


Thanks

Mike

Mike, expectation and execution fidelity are significantly more important than the quantity of deals. A "good EA" exhibits the same behavior in forward and backtesting, a clean equity curve, a steady advantage across several market regimes, and little reliance on curve-fit parameters. You're headed in the correct direction if your reasoning holds up in tick-data testing with actual spreads and walk-forward validation.