Sharing My Secret Trend Reversal Strategy with an 80% Win Rate - page 2

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Fabio Cavalloni #:
EMA for identifying trends is almost always ineffective

What is best approach to find Trend?


I agree with most of your point.

 
anuj71 #:

What is best approach to find Trend?


I agree with most of your point.

There are many, no one is perfect. You need to make tests to understand what can be the best based on your strategy...

 

Updated :

Many people have a misconception that I am going against the strong trend, but that is not true. If you have noticed my entry conditions for BUY and SELL in Original Post, you will see that I only take BUY trades in an uptrend and SELL trades in a downtrend. I trade trend reversals for weaker or smaller trends. Additionally, I have started using the EMA 50 for better trend confirmation, along with the EMA 200.

Here is an illustration of how my trade entries work:

For BUY Signal :

For Sell Signal :




 
Fabio Cavalloni #:

there are no guarantee that skipping that time will make a strategy working better

It can be proven through backtests and live trading, and was proven actually. I would use an EA designed for news impact to handle the news impact, and use other EAs with time filter. There is also an option to disable all sell trades or buy trades which mitigates the danger of trending markets. Someone could easily toggle that depending on the latest market information they have, but I know that some other people never want to touch the inputs. Unfortunately for them, the EA is unlikely to do well in these kind of scenarios when the market keeps moving in one direction.

 
Conor Mcnamara #:
I believe you that the strategy is profitable, but see I came to learn over time that many indicator strategies are actually profitable once you have:

- Consistent risk management
- A news impact time filter
- Drawdown alert mechanism 
- Even more automated risk management

Do you know that one of the top 5 traders in the world has a 30% win rate. His risk management has proven his success.

Win rate means nothing in trading. A 35% win rate can make you a profitable trader..it’s your risk to reward..

 
You need to take a closer look with your risk reward ratio. Having a higher risk amount vs your reward will definitely gives you a higher win rate but not profitable. I suggest focus first of having a good risk management strategy in place. 

 
Predictable R:R ratios are actually potentially dangerous. These are predicted by hedge funds as well as predictable stop losses. It can work when your entry criteria is very strict, but you need to confuse institutional traders about your stop loss location. You can't use a tight predictable one, and the same goes for tight standard trailing stop
 

Update Live Result :

I have created a EA based on above logic and running with 3 different Risk to reward. I am using Trailing Stop instead of Take Profit.

Trailing Stop (300) & Stop Loss (300) : FX Blue - Statement for rbm-tp1-sl1
Trailing Stop (300) & Stop Loss (600) : FX Blue - Statement for rbm-tp1-sl2
Trailing Stop (600) & Stop Loss (300) : https://www.fxblue.com/users/rbm-tp2-sl1

 
anuj71 #:

What is best approach to find Trend?


I agree with most of your point.

Best simple approach to find trend:

  1. Use Moving Averages (MA):

    • Uptrend: Price above 200 EMA or 50 EMA.

    • Downtrend: Price below 200 EMA or 50 EMA.

  2. Higher Highs, Higher Lows = Uptrend
    Lower Highs, Lower Lows = Downtrend

  3. Trendline:
    Draw a line connecting lows in uptrend or highs in downtrend.

 Combine all three = more accuracy.

 
Fabio Cavalloni #:

Wooow, we really like people who share loosing strategies, many thanks man!

Also, RSI, Bollinger, EMA... i'm surprised, this seems really interesting and something new, never saw something similar. This is a very secret strategy.

We should protect this interesting secret!!!

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