Discussion of article "The price movement model and its main provisions (Part 1): The simplest model version and its applications"

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New article The price movement model and its main provisions (Part 1): The simplest model version and its applications has been published:

The article provides the foundations of a mathematically rigorous price movement and market functioning theory. Up to the present, we have not had any mathematically rigorous price movement theory. Instead, we have had to deal with experience-based assumptions stating that the price moves in a certain way after a certain pattern. Of course, these assumptions have been supported neither by statistics, nor by theory.

Forecasting the price movement using the equation (4) is problematic and unreliable, due to the difficulty of identifying the parameters present in it, the presence of fundamentally irremovable uncertainties in the parameters and, most importantly, due to frequent unpredictable (according to the simplest model) strong random jumps. Fortunately, oscillators are able to sort these large unpredictable jumps and have predictive power. However, they have one extremely significant drawback, which is a lag inherent in all moving averages those oscillators are based on. Therefore, along with direct price forecasting, it might be even more promising to arrange the forecasting of such indicators, which eliminates their lag.

Author: Aleksey Ivanov

 

Thank you to the author for a quality, original article. It is well noticed that the concept is thoroughly thought out and based on a wealth of experience. There is a lot to think about.

At the first quick reading a question arose, though not quite related to the topic of the article. How is the process of random walk (as a price model) seen in this concept? As a certain equilibrium, its limiting state or in some other way?

 
To the author, respect and esteem. It is a rare case when an article is about the market and attempts to learn the complex market process. Way to go!
 
A good start to formalising data acquisition for the initial model. Kudos to the author.
 
Aleksey Nikolayev #:

Thank you to the author for a quality, original article. It is well noticed that the concept is thoroughly thought out and based on a wealth of experience. There is a lot to think about.

At the first quick reading a question arose, though not quite related to the topic of the article. How is the process of random walk (as a price model) seen in this concept? As a certain equilibrium, its limiting state or in some other way?

I will join the question.
My opinion, sb arises from the probabilistic uncertainty of the data that affect the price and the impossibility of assessing the feedbacks from market actions.
How that would be accounted for, I don't know)
 
Aleksey Nikolayev #:

Thank you to the author for a quality, original article. It is well noticed that the concept is thoroughly thought out and based on a wealth of experience. There is a lot to think about.

At the first quick reading a question arose, though not quite related to the topic of the article. How is the process of random walk (as a price model) seen in this concept? As a certain equilibrium, its limiting state or in some other way?

Thank you for the positive evaluation of my work.

Your question, in fact, has a direct relation to the continuation of the topic I am developing. The point is that the second part (which complements the presented model of price movement) deals with random wandering of the price in the probability field described here in the first part. "What is the philosophy of understanding these states from the probability field point of view? " is also a difficult question. - is also a difficult question. What is important is that practically this problem (with such random walks) is solved ; and, finding the maximum of the profit function, take profit and stop loss positions are determined , which will be given in the next article.


 
Denis Kirichenko #:
To the author, respect and esteem. It is a rare case when an article is about the market and attempts to learn the complex market process. Way to go!

Thank you, I am trying.

 
Valeriy Yastremskiy #:
A good start to formalising data acquisition for the initial model. Kudos to the author.
Thanks, trying to put things in order.
 
Valeriy Yastremskiy #:
I'll join the question.
My opinion, sb arises from the probabilistic uncertainty of the data that affects the price and the impossibility of estimating the feedbacks from market actions.
How this will be accounted for, I don't know)
I will try to cover this in the next article. The important thing is that using the representations of the cb, supplemented by the wave probability fields presented here, it is not difficult to calculate practically useful (for trading) things.
 
Aleksey Ivanov #:

Your question, in fact, has a direct relation to the continuation of the topic I am developing. The point is that in the second part (which complements the presented model of price movement), the random wandering of price in the probability field described here in the first part is considered. "What is the philosophy of understanding these states from the probability field point of view?" is also a difficult question. - is also a difficult question. What is important is that practically this problem (with such random walks) is solved; and, finding the maximum of the profit function, take profit and stop loss positions are determined, which will be given in the next article.


Well, let's not get ahead of ourselves.

 
Aleksey Ivanov #:

The answer to the question posed by you and Valeriy Yastremskiy in the article"The Price Movement Model and its main provisions (Part 2): The evolution equation of the probabilistic price field and the emergence of observed random walk"

Thanks, I will definitely look into it.

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