EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 22.03 - 29.03: Bearish Ranging with 1.0461 Key Support Level - page 2
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Press review
newdigital, 2015.03.26 05:47
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Aiming Above 1.12 Figure (based on dailyfx article)
The Euro rose as expected against US Dollar, with prices now poised to make a move above the 1.12 figure. Near-term resistance is at 1.1263, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 1.1513. Alternatively, a reversal below 1.0955 (trend line resistance-turned-support, 23.6% retracement) clears the way for a test of the 1.0456-541 area (March 16 low, the 23.6% Fib expansion).
Our long-term outlook envisions Euro weakness. With that in mind, we will treat any on-coming upswing as corrective and look to enter short once signs of a renewed turn lower emerge. In the meantime, we will remain on the sidelines.
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newdigital, 2015.03.26 10:08
EUR/USD Continues to Put Pressure on the 1.1040 Resistance (based on forexminute article)
EUR/USD rallied from 1.0462 to 1.1040 last week. The main bullish breakout move followed the FOMC statement. After that, there was a sharp pullback, but that held above 1.06 and maintained a bullish outlook. Let’s follow up on the price action since this breakout and confirmation.
The 4H chart shows that price has continued to threaten the 1.1040 resistance. During the 3/24 session, there was a bearish engulfing candle. However, this candle failed to extend the retreat and price held above 1.09. This suggests that the bulls in this market is in control in the short-term.
Also note the 200-period SMA just above 1.1040. A break above 1.1050 is likely to open up further bullish correction. When we look at the daily chart, we can see some room to rally until a key pivot around 1.1270. If price stalls here, and the daily RSI also stalls around 60, be ready for a bearish attempt at least to test the 1.09 level that acted as support in the previous couple of sessions.
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newdigital, 2015.03.26 13:48
EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for March 26, 2015 (based on fxempire article)
The EUR/USD is trading better at the mid-session. Overnight, the market held a key 50% level at 1.0956 and is also trading on the bullish side of a downtrending angle at 1.0949, indicating that more than short-covering may be going on. Both of these levels are new support.
If 1.0949 fails as support then look for an acceleration to the downside with a steep uptrending angle at 1.0822 the next downside target.
With the EUR/USD chewing through a high at 1.1025 and a closing price reversal top at 1.1028, traders have set their sights on the Fibonacci level at 1.1072. There could be a technical bounce at this level since the main trend is down, but this price is also a potential trigger point for an upside breakout.
If 1.1072 is taken out with conviction then look for a possible acceleration into 1.1168. This is followed by another angle at 1.1199 and a major, long-term 61.8% level at 1.1211.
Look for a bullish tone to develop over 1.1072 and a bearish tone under 1.0956.
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newdigital, 2015.03.27 06:18
EURUSD Morning Reversal- EURUSD Opens to a False Breakout (based on dailyfx article)
The EURUSD has opened the day with a false breakout in early London trading. Prices moved above resistance found at the R4 Camarilla pivot near 1.1031, but quickly slipped back into the pivot range. Range resistance begins at the R3 pivot found at the psychological 1.1000 price point. Immediately price continued to decline down to range support found at the S3 pivot at a price of 1.0937.
Currently price is again trading outside of its 63 pip range. In the event that price begins to decline further, trend traders may elect to look for a breakout under the S4 pivot. This would signal a potential increase in USD strength and traders would look for a reversal back in the direction of the markets predominant trend. Conversely, if price moves back inside of range support, this may temporarily suspend any further attempts at a market breakout.
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newdigital, 2015.03.27 12:54
Barclays says ... (based on forexlive article)
"The two key drivers of the multi-year downtrend in the EUR remain in force. In our view, remain the two that we identified last summer: 1) persistently low expected returns to capital in the euro area due to its relatively larger output gap and its structural impediments to growth; and 2) an Odyssian commitment by the ECB to a long period of low (or negative) interest rates. Both forces continue to augur for a much lower EUR, despite an encouraging pick-up in euro area economic indicators and a likely slowing in the pace of Fed tightening," Barclays argues.
"In particular, as long as the ECB is committed to highly elastic provision of liquidity, the EURUSD will struggle to find its footing and risks come primarily from the US economy. In our view, a stabilization or turn in the EUR will require a sustained and convincing pickup in real investment or acceleration in core inflation that all into question the ECB's commitments. Neither appears on offer anytime soon," Barclays adds.
2-way risks:
"Two-way risks almost certainly have risen and we do not expect the torrid pace of EUR depreciation to be sustained. But the two drivers of EUR weakness appear strong, suggesting to us that the EUR still has much further to fall in its multi-year downtrend," Barclays argues.
How much lower?
"After plunging 23% in 10 months, the question of how much further EURUSD can drop has moved to the fore...We now expect EURUSD to fall to parity by Q3 15 and to 0.95 by end Q1 16," Barclays projects.