From theory to practice. Part 2 - page 150
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
this message and work in forex is for mathematicians and physicists, not for philosophers!
I support this lady. Trade has different rules and laws. And they want to bend the trading process to their rules.
Naive physicists and mathematicians)). What can you do.
I support this lady. Trade has different rules and laws. And they want to bend the trading process to their rules.
Naive physicists and mathematicians)). What can you do.
Only a user with proven trading results in the form of a signal may write about trading rules and laws.
I doubt the conclusion about the exponentiality of the distribution, but not the equality of probabilities of going up or down. If a course has passed dK from a point K0, then it will pass k0 + i*dK with probability 1 - 1/2 - 1/4 - 1/8 - 1/16...-(1/2)^i. Exponentially decreasing series of numbers. However, this refers to a no-rebound trend, i.e. a move in one direction with no pullbacks on dK. The interest in the no-failure trend arises due to a martingale disaster exactly on no-failure trends, where dK is the distance to the break-even point, maintained at one level by doubling the volume.
In the case of price==SB there is exponentiality. If SB is without a drift (trend), the probability that the price will pass from the point K0 a distance of at least K before the correction D occurs is equal to exp(-K/D). That is, the X=K/D random variable is distributed according to the standard exponential law. If the SB with a drift (trend), then the distribution law of the X quantity remains exponential, but with some other parameter.
If it is not a non-trending one, it looks like we will have to add to these probabilities those trajectories that first went down by more than dK (left the corridor in the other direction) and then resumed moving along the trend. This is where the opinion of people with a deep knowledge of probability theory comes in.
We'll probably have to build figures from several zigzag knees and look at the probabilities of their particular configurations. Intuition suggests that this will be a complex calculation involving Gamma, Laplace and possibly Beta distributions. The problem is that even if one were suddenly able to calculate anything, there would be problems when trying to apply this in practice due to the small samples for each particular configuration.
In the case of price==SB there is exponentiality. If SB is without a drift (trend), then the probability that the price will pass from point K0 a distance of at least K before the correction D occurs is exp(-K/D). That is, the X=K/D random variable is distributed according to the standard exponential law. If the SB with drift (trend), then the distribution law of the X value remains exponential, but with some other parameter.
...
Thank you very much, Alexey. It made me feel better to keep pulling knowledge out of the 50/50 rule. There is less doubt.
And the "no demolition" condition is, of course, fulfilled on average. Over many years (50 years of forex to be exact) the 28 rates of 8 currencies have not changed by even 1 order of magnitude. The overall trend for each pair is minuscule.
Only a user with a proven trading result in the form of a signal can write about the rules and laws of trading.
So your signal I have already seen. )))
So what's the maths and physics on everyone's face already??
So your signal I've already seen. )))
So the maths and physics are on everyone's face already???
Did I write nonsense like yours about the "rules and laws of trading"?
Did I write nonsense like yours about 'rules and laws of the trade'?
Nah, I didn't notice. It doesn't matter.
If 1 percent a month is 12 percent for a year.) The banks are resting.
What if it's 2%? What if it's 3-4% ?
You're being coy about this resource.
When you have a hammer in your hand, everything seems like nails :)))
I wonder if this could be related to your desire to see waves all around you).
Nah, I didn't notice. It doesn't matter.
If 1 percent a month is 12 percent for a year.)) The banks are resting.
What if it's 2%? What if it's 3% or 4% ?
You're being coy about this resource.
What if it's 346%?
How about 346%?
All the traders would cry with envy and the brokers would laugh. ))))))