I'm good at draining - page 12

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nowi:


tell me what makes you think that the market is not random, i.e. i understand the argument that it is formed by human activity and humans almost always use a logic and system ...but ... I mean by randomness I mean the absence of any enduring patterns...

is it possible to predict the direction of a single tick? and a candle is made of ticks ... and a chart is made of candles ...

Why can't a neural network predict the market even though it has been proved by Tibenko's theorem that it approximates any non-linear function even with a single hidden layer...

and there are a lot of such questions)


I don't want to convince you otherwise, I just want an intelligent opinion.


how can you tell the difference between a randomly generated chart and a non-random one.... a trend and a flat, well, there are always trends and flat consolidation on random data....

give me one parameter (clear) to distinguish a real market from a fictitious one....

which one of these charts is real?)


Very simply, there are many mathematical ways of determining whether a series of numbers is random or not. The fact is that mathematicians have investigated random processes, many years before us and random data has certain characteristics. I plotted random charts and put them into the terminal, they are very similar indeed, but you cannot cheat mathematics, you should analyze (build distribution fuction, spectral density fusion, perform rs analysis) and it becomes clear where is a random chart and where is a market one. You can even try to plot X from Y, and in the random plot, there will be a uniform filling of the space, while in the market plot no uniform filling comes out. In general I have done a lot of research and the market is whatever, but it doesn't fit into randomness.
 
From the drawings, it's hard to tell by eye, the eye is a poor analysis tool in general. It seems to me that the top right one is random. But this is not a scientific approach.
 
A non-network will never trade properly because a non-network, for all its complexity and number of scientific papers, is a common averager. It averages the data and cuts out the pattern, but in the market the pattern is constantly changing, because of the large number of participants who want to beat each other. And the thing is that you're not the only one who can use neural networks, in which case the neural networks start competing with each other, and the one who has the most, and the one who wins. So the pattern has changed, it is necessary to retrain a non-network. The winner is the one who has a better non-network and is retrained faster. You should understand that there are as many winners in the market as there are losers, even less because of the fees, and it becomes clear why the market is not random. Why would it be random at all?
 

hello...

there are certain market parameters, abnormal distribution, coefficients of asymmetry and excess.... but knowing these parameters of a real market, you can make an artificial market model with the same parameters... don't you think so... and the fact that the model will be different from the Brownian motion does not make the market one bit more predictable... that's what Mandelbrot wrote about...

it will only change some expectations about the market.... e.g. knowing about the thick tails of the distribution, one can hope to get into a long trend someday by a lucky chance.... but when it starts and in which direction - this is a completely mysterious element...

It is also logical (in my opinion) to conclude that if data mining methods fail to predict, then TA methods will fail all the more ....

what do you think... do you believe in the predictive value of TA?

I look at Bill Williams, Elder, etc., and I think you have to be a shameless amoral bitch to tell people shit like that and not even blush...

I personally came to the conclusion a long time ago that TA is.... a very beautiful Russian proverb that captures the essence: "like a pitchfork over water").


but i don't quit trading, firstly, because i'm just like all of us addicted to it) it's a scary drug.... i can tell by my own experience: if i don't look at the chart at least once in a day, i start to break down)

I think I need an addictive narcotic ... I can tell by my own example: If I don't look at the chart at least once a day it destroys me ...


ps: and by the way all the charts in the picture are RICH) but so many elements of technical analysis there.... double tops and troughs, head shoulders... and levels... levels work out clearly...

herczyk would say: here's a breakout here's a rebound here's a false break and here's a duel with a poppy

 

By the way, I want to illustrate the "possibilities" of technical analysis by the example of support and resistance levels, which I long foolishly believed in, and now it's just funny and sometimes sad when people talk about them ...

So, predictions for the levels: look here, the level is clearly visible, if the price goes up to it, the pullback is possible, if the price does not break through it, then it will go higher, although there may be another false breakthrough and the price will return behind the level...

and then the price breaks the level but makes a retest, so we'll go down, but the price still breaks the level, so we'll go up...

but when it breaks up, it retests again, proving the strength of the level.)

but oh my god, the price retested and retraced again, it's called a hard break...

and now it's stalling around the level, that's a breakout...

and here we are again breaching the level and flying up...))

there you go: i told you levels work in the market!!!

 
nowi:

...

secondly i don't believe in TA categorically but i have faith in other things regarding trading...

...


I wonder,... what kind of faith do "intellectually distant" people have in such a technical thing as trading?... Because we poor souls are trying to do everything with numbers... with numbers... unbelievers...
 
nowi:

By the way, I want to illustrate the "possibilities" of technical analysis by the example of support and resistance levels, which I long foolishly believed in, and now it's just funny and sometimes sad when people talk about them ...

So, predictions for the levels: look here, the level is clearly visible, if the price goes up to it, the pullback is possible, if the price does not break through it, then it will go higher, although there may be another false breakthrough and the price will go back to it...

and then the price breaks the level but makes a retest, so we'll go down, but the price still breaks the level, so we'll go up...

but when it breaks up, it retests again, proving the strength of the level.)

but oh my god, the price retested and retraced again, it's called a hard breakout...

and now it's stalling near the level, that's a pro-trade...

and here we are again breaching the level and flying up...))

there you go: i told you levels work in the market!!!

That's the whole point! No widely known TA method can work in the market, because it's primitive and has no theoretical model. There is no point in studying TA, but there is a point in creating your own analysis methods and the more inadequate and non-obvious they are, the better. The point is that traders do not write books or teach, they will never tell you about their methods as long as they use them.
My robot, for example, very successfully uses in its work only the deviation from the normal distribution. Since 2000 it passes tests on h1, works on 28 pairs without problems, in real trade it behaves similar to the tester and makes 5-10% per month, but that doesn't mean that any mathematician will do the same robot and it will become stable. So you can. It's not about TA and it's not about FA.
And yes, the market is not a drug for me, it's my only income.
 
prikolnyjkent:

I wonder... what kind of faith do "intellectually distant" people have in such a technical business as trading? We poor souls are trying to use numbers... numbers... unbelievers...
That's right, no faith, there are just numbers and that's it.
 
Maxim Romanov:
And you say you can't use those fat tails.


where did i say that? ....

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies


e.g. knowing about thick distribution tails, one can hope to get into a prolonged trend someday by a lucky chance....


 
Then, if real account charts are useless for forecasting, and they consist of two currencies of two countries, then maybe it is better to use economic forecasts of all sorts. And a chart is just a current representation of what's going on. Or is it not?
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