GOLD Technical Analysis 2015, 22.02 - 01.03: Bullish Breakout or Bullish Ranging with 1306.82 Key Resistance
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newdigital, 2015.02.20 18:05
Forex Weekly Outlook February 23-27
German Business sentiment, Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen’s speeches,
US Consumer Confidence, US New Home Sales, Inflation data and GDP data
from the US and the UK. These are the major events on our Forex
calendar. Here is an outlook in the highlights of this week.
Last week, the Greek drama remained at the center of attention without
reaching resolution as Germany opposed the bailout extension proposed by
Greece. From the US: Jobless claims release came out better than
expected with a 21,000 fall to 283,000 claims and the 4-week moving
average declined to 283,250, indicating the US labor market is gathering
momentum. Other US events were more disappointing such as the Philly
Fed index falling to 5.2 from 6.3 while expected to reach 8.8. The FOMC
minutes release remained on the same note, reiterating patients
regarding the rate hike option. Will the EU reach agreement with Greece
this week?
Eurozone German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 9:00. German
business moral edged up for the third straight month in January,
reaching 106.7 from 105.5 in December, in line with market forecast. The
weak euro boosted exports and is expected to continue its decent amid
the fresh bond buying program initiated by the ECB to spur growth.
Stronger German growth will help the Euro-area out of its sluggish
state. German business is expected to rise further to107.4.
Mario Draghi speaks: Tuesday, 14:00, Wednesday 14:00. ECB
President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak in Frankfurt and in
Brussles before the European Parliament. Draghi refrained from
addressing the Grexit scenario, saying it made no sense to speculate on
Greece abandoning the euro zone. Draghi may refer to the Greek
negotiations and his statement from Feb 7.
US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00. U.S. consumer
confidence rose to a seven-year high in January, reaching 102.9 from an
upwardly revised 93.1 in December. Optimism increased about the labor
market and economic conditions. Analysts expected a small rise to 95.1.
Responders were also positive on short-term outlook and wage growth. Low
inflation due to gasoline prices also boosted consumers’ spirits.
Consumer confidence is expected to reach 99.6 this time.
Janet Yellen testifies: Tuesday, 15:00. Federal Reserve Chair
Janet Yellen will testify before the House Financial Services Committee,
in Washington DC. Yellen may address the rate hike issue, the weak
inflation trend and the strengthening labor market. Market volatility is
expected.
US New Home Sales: Wednesday, 15:00. New home sales increased
sharply in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 481,000,
following 452,000 in the previous month. The 11.6% climb indicates an
improvement from 2014. Stronger labor market and better economic
conditions have facilitated the positive trend of home acquisitions.
Furthermore, sales of existing homes rose 2.4% in December to a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million. New home sales are
predicted to shrink to 447,000 in January.
UK GDP data: Thursday, 9:30. The second GDP estimate of the third
quarter confirmed a minor slowdown in Britain’s economic activity. GDP
increased 0.7% but growth was heavily dependent on domestic demand. The
GDP data indicates that the UK Government does not succeed to balance
growth between all sectors. Falling Business investment and low
Industrial growth weighed heavily on output. Exports declined 0.4%,
while imports increased by 1.4%. However, household spending edged up
0.8% over the third quarter, showing growth in 13 consecutive quarters.
The second GDP estimate of the fourth quarter is expected to be 0.5%.
US Inflation data: Thursday, 13:30. U.S. consumer prices
registered their biggest fall in December, dropping 0.4%, the largest
decline since December 2008, following a 0.3% decline in the prior
month. On a yearly base, CPI gained a mere 0.8%, the weakest reading
since October 2009. The continuous decline diminishes the possibility of
a rate hike. Meanwhile, Core prices without food and energy costs
remained unchanged in December. In the 12 months through December, core
CPI increased 1.6%, the smallest gain since February. U.S. consumer
price index is expected to decline 0.6% while core CPI is forecasted to
rise 0.1%.
US Core Durable Goods Orders: Thursday, 13:30. Capital goods
orders plunged 3.4% in December amid slowing global growth and low crude
oil prices. Core orders excluding aircraft, dropped 0.8% in December
while expected to gain 0.5%. The strong dollar also held back new
investments. Durable goods orders took a step back in the fourth quarter
of 2014 after strong gains in the previous two quarters. Durable Goods
Orders are expected to gain 1.7% while core orders are expected to add
0.6%.
US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of Americans
filing initial claims for unemployment benefits fell 21,000 last week to
283,000, indicating a positive momentum in the US labor market.
Analysts expected claims to reach 293,000. The four-week moving average
of claims, a more stable measure of labor market trends fell 6,500 to
283,250 last week. The number of jobless claims is expected to reach
285,000 this week.
US GDP data: Friday, 13:30. The U.S. economy expanded more than
initially estimated in the third quarter, rising 3.9% from 3.5%
forecasted a month back. The strong release was preceded by a 4.6%
growth in the second quarter, marking the two strongest quarters since
the second half of 2003. Analysts expected a growth rate of 3.3% However
economists expect a weaker expansion below 3% in the fourth quarter.
The expansion rate in the fourth quarter is estimated to reach 2.1%.
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newdigital, 2015.02.21 10:51
GOLD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)
Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral
- Gold Stalling at 1200 Figure, SPX 500 Stalling at Record High
- Gold Price Rebounds from Fibonacci Level; 1170s Still Possible
Gold prices are lower for a fourth consecutive week with the precious metal off more than 2.4% to trade at $1199 ahead of the New York close on Friday. Despite the losses, gold is poised to close the week well-off the lows after rebounding off key support mid-week with the greenback on the defensive as the USDOLLAR index posts its third consecutive weekly decline.
Minutes from the latest FOMC policy meeting cited a more cautious tone from the committee with “many officials” inclined to maintain the central bank’s zero interest rate policy amid concerns over the strengthening dollar and “foreign weakness” from the likes of China, the Middle East, Ukraine and Greece. The release prompted a rebound in gold prices which were trading into a critical support region as expectations for a June rate hike diminished. While the technical damage done to gold this month cannot be overlooked, near-term the shift in Fed rhetoric could continue to offer gold a reprieve from the recent selling pressure.
Looking ahead to next week, traders will closely eying key US metrics with January CPI, durable goods orders, and the second read on 4Q GDP. The most significant event risk will likely be on Tuesday when Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testifies before the Senate Bank Panel in Washington. Look for any weakness / downward revisions in the data or more dovish comments from Yellen to prop up gold as investors push out expectations for Fed normalization. We’ll also be watching the developing story in Greece with the current bailout set to expire at the end of the week. With news on Friday affirming that an initial four-month extension has been granted, the focus will remain on US data and the central bank interest rate outlook heading into next week.
From a technical standpoint, gold rebounded off key support this week at the $1196/98. This level is defined by the confluence of the 61.8% retracement of the November advance & the 1.618% extension of the decline off the January high and is backed closely by a basic trendline support off the November low. We’ reserve this region as our near-term bullish invalidation level and although the broader bias remains weighted to the down-side, near-term this structure may offer stronger support. Note that daily RSI is holding just above the 40-threshold and we’ll use pending resistance trigger as validation of either a near-term recovery higher into the close of the month, or a material break sub 1196. Such a scenario targets subsequent support targets at $1171 & $1155. Interim resistance (near-term bearish invalidation) stands at $1218/24 with a breach above targeting $1239/40. Bottom line: looking for a low early next week with a general topside bias in play near-term while above $1196/98.
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newdigital, 2015.02.23 18:56
2015-02-23 15:30 GMT (or 17:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity]- past data is -4.4
- forecast data is -4.0
- actual data is -11.2 according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity] =The Dallas Fed conducts the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey monthly
to obtain a timely assessment of the state's factory activity. Firms are
asked by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
whether output, employment, orders, prices and other indicators
increased, decreased or remained unchanged over the previous month.
Survey responses are used to calculate an index for each indicator. Each
index is calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents
reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase.
United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index fell from previous -4.4 to -11.2 in February
Those are updated charts :)
Seems, 1251.80 support level was broken ...
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newdigital, 2015.02.24 05:18
AUDIO - Chris Vermeulen – Gold Still in a Bear Market, but Don’t Lose Hope
Gold is still in a bear market, like it has been for the past three years. There’s an opportunity to pick up a quick profit when it rebounds from its current plunge, but don’t be fooled. It’s all setting up very nicely for the ultimate bull market that’s getting closer. Same with the much maligned Toronto Venture Exchange (TSX:V), which is at record lows due to its composition of miners and resource companies.
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newdigital, 2015.02.24 09:53
What charts say about the outlook for gold
Weaker-than-expected U.S. housing data lifted gold prices from a seven-week low on Monday, but charts suggest that investors shouldn't get too excited.
Gold got some reprieve on Monday, rebounding from a seven-week low intraday after data showed U.S. home resales for January declined to a nine-month low. The data are unlikely to dent the overall trend, however; gold posted its fourth consecutive weekly decline last week amid a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this year.
Meanwhile, the outlook on charts is bearish.
The weekly gold chart has developed a complex technical pattern with three features: a downtrend line; strong historical support; certain pattern behavior in the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) indicator.
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newdigital, 2015.02.24 13:12
Gold, Crude Oil Stall at Chart Barriers as SPX 500 Digests Gains (based on dailyfx article)
Prices challenging pivotal support at 1197.86, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A break below this barrier exposes channel floor support at 1176.34, followed by the 76.4% level at 1171.96. Alternatively, a reversal above 50% Fib at 1218.80 targets the 38.2% retracement at 1239.73.
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newdigital, 2015.02.24 16:23
2015-02-24 15:00 GMT (or 17:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Consumer Confidence]- past data is 103.8
- forecast data is 99.6
- actual data is 96.4 according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households. Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
==========U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Pulls Back More Than Expected In February
After reporting a sharp increase in U.S. consumer confidence in the previous month, the Conference Board released a report on Tuesday showing that its consumer confidence index pulled back by more than expected in the month of February.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index tumbled to 96.4 in February from an upwardly revised 103.8 in January.
Economists had expected the index to drop to a reading of 99.1 from the 102.9 originally reported for the previous month.
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newdigital, 2015.02.25 05:51
The Justice Department Goes Hunting For A Gold Price Fix (based on forbes article)
Quaint or corrupt, that’s the question the U.S. Justice Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission have set themselves in their attempt to prize back the lid on the centuries-old world of trading metals in London.
Gold is the primary focus of the double-barreled inquiry with silver, platinum and palladium also on the agenda.
What the U.S. investigators hope to find is a smoking gun linking some of the world’s biggest banks to allegations of market rigging, a job which European investigators have already dropped.
The starting point for the metals probe, which was launched before Christmas but has only just been revealed, is the process by which benchmark metal prices have historically been set in the private world of London banking.
Deep-Seated Flaws In Benchmark Setting
Similar inquiries into interest-rate setting and foreign exchange dealing has already revealed deep-seated flaws, some of which can be traced to old methods of price-setting not tolerated in a modern world of high-speed financial transactions.
In a way what’s happening in the metals market is a case of the old world of lax London methods, where a man’s word was considered his bond, bumping into the new world of tight U.S. regulations where business is done by the book.
European regulators, it seems, were prepared to accept that London’s way of trading metals was understandable when looked at from an historic perspective which took into account the fact that systems simply evolved, no-one designed them.
Fixing The Fix
The solution was the unfortunately-named London Gold Fix, a benchmark price first struck in September 1919 after representatives of five London-based banks swapped market information by telephone, a system which later became a twice-daily meeting to set a morning and afternoon gold price.
There have been frequent changes to the way the gold price is fixed with most gold exchanged these day by electronic means on markets open 24-hours a day.
Other metals have also been traded in what now look to be archaic systems, including the way members of the London Metal Exchange (LME) trade certain metals in five-minute bursts of open outcry bidding while sitting in a ring at the exchange located in London’s business heart, The City.
Mining companies, and metal buyers, had no way of knowing whether the prices quoted were correct but one Australian mining company became suspicious when it consistently failed to get the price quoted for the cobalt it produced as a by-product at its nickel mines.
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newdigital, 2015.02.25 13:27
Gold Tries to Launch Recovery, SPX 500 Resumes Upward Push (based on dailyfx article)
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Prices are attempting to launch a
recovery from support at 1197.86, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The
reversal requires a push above a major resistance cluster in the
1209.67-18.80 area, marked by a falling channel top, the underside of a
recently broken trend line and the 50% Fibonacci retracement. If a break
does materialize, the next upside barrier comes in at 1239.73, the
38.2% level. Alternatively, a turn below 1197.86 aims for the
intersection of channel floor support and the 76.4% Fib at 1171.96.
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H4 price is inside Ichimoku cloud/kumo with the following condition:
D1 price is on primary bullish with the correction which was started in the end of January this year:
W1 price is on bearish with secondary rally started in the beginning of January this year; Chinkou Span line is located to be close to the price for good possible breakout to reversal of the price movement from bearush to the bullish market condition
MN price is on bearish market condition with market rally started on open monthly bar
If D1 price will break 1251.80 support level on close bar - we may see good secondary correction inside the primary bullish
If D1 price will break 1306.82 resistance level so the bulliosh trend will be continuing
If not so it will be bullish ranging between 1251.80 and 1306.82 levels
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on XAUUSD price movement for this coming week)
2015-02-24 14:45 GMT (or 16:45 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Services PMI]
2015-02-24 15:00 GMT (or 17:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Consumer Confidence]
2015-02-24 15:00 GMT (or 17:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech]
2015-02-25 15:00 GMT (or 17:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech]
2015-02-26 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - CPI]
2015-02-26 23:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [JPY - CPI]
2015-02-27 13:30 GMT (or 15:50 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - GDP]
Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on XAUUSD price movementSUMMARY : bullish
TREND : ranging