EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 01.03 - 08.03: Daily Bearish during the Monthly Breakdown with 1.1097 Key Support Level
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newdigital, 2015.02.27 17:25
Forex Weekly Outlook Mar. 2-6 (based on forexcrunch article)
The euro was the loser in week that saw the dollar retreat and make a
comeback. The first week of the new month is packed: rate decisions in
Australia, Canada, the UK and the euro-zone, GDP data from Canada and
Australia and a full buildup to the US Non-Farm Payrolls. These are the
main market movers on FX Calendar. Join us as we explore the highlights
of this week.
Janet Yellen managed to send mixed signals and was analyzed as dovish.
However, was she preparing us for the removal of forward guidance? Her
colleague Bullard was quite bullish. US data came out mixed: jobless
claims rose to 313,000, and CPI declined 0.7% due to continued slide in
oil prices, while Core CPI surprised with a 0.2% rise and maintained a
stable 1.6% y/y figure. The latter number trumped the others and allowed
the dollar to make a comeback. In the euro-zone, the Greek list was
approved and the crisis is off for now. Data has been somewhat upbeat.
UK GDP remained supportive of the pound while in Australia, speculation
mounts about an RBA cut. We’ll get lots of answers now.
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 15:00. Manufacturing activity in the U.S. expanded mildly in January, reaching 53.5, after posting 55.5 in December. The lukewarm reading raised concerns over the health of the economy. Economists expected a stronger reading of 54.9. New Orders declined 4.9 points to 52.9, Production Index was 1.2 points below 57.7 posted in December and Employment Index registered a 1.9 points decline to 54.1. The headline number for February is expected to rise to stand at 53.4 points.
- Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets in February with a rate cut of 0.25% to 2.25%. This was the first change since August 2013.The RBA noted that the recent drop in oil prices were not enough to boost growth and global economy is also expanding in a moderate pace. Inflation is expected to remain slow, domestic demand is forecast to weaken and the unemployment rate is expected to increase. We think that the RBA could cut again.
- Canadian GDP: Tuesday, 13:30. Canada’s economy unexpectedly contracted 0.2% in November, prompting talks of a second rate cut in six weeks. Economists expected a small decline of 0.1%. Sluggish activity in manufacturing, mining oil and gas extraction lead to this decline. The BOC noted that if economic data remain weak in early 2015, it could lead to another rate cut. On a yearly base, Gross domestic product grew 1.9%, the lowest year-on-year advance since the 1.9% of March 2014. A +0.1% growth rate is on the cards now.
- Australian GDP: Wednesday, 0:30. Australia’s gross domestic product grew by a mere 0.3% in the third quarter, reaching a 2.7% expansion, in the 12 months to September. Economists forecast a 0.7% growth for the quarter and 3.1% for the year. However, policymakers noted the GDP was only marginally lower than expected. Despite the rise in unemployment, exports are getting stronger and will lead to expansion in 2015. Expectations stand at +0.7% q/q.
- US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Wednesday, 13:15. The U.S. private sector added 213,000 jobs in January, missing analysts’ forecasts of 224,000. December’s private payrolls were revised up to 253,000 from the previously reported 241,000. Despite the weaker than expected data economists believe that the U.S. labor market is expanding at a solid pace. A similar gain of 218K is predicted now.
- Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 15:00. The Bank of Canada surprised markets by cutting its key overnight lending rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 0.75%. The ongoing decline in oil prices posed a threat to Canadian economic growth. Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz said the revenues from oil exports will be reduced on top of sluggish investment and employment in the energy sector. The rate cut was aimed to rebalance the economy. The Central Bank also downgraded its growth forecast for 2015, from 2.4% to 2.1% and expect a mere 1.5% growth in the first six months.
- US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 15:00. The U.S. services activity remained strong in early 2015 but employment slackened. ISM non manufacturing purchasing managers index reached 56.7 in January, nearly unchanged from 56.5 in December. Analysts expected the index to reach 56.6. The majority of responders were positive towards business conditions. The new orders index increased to 59.5 from 59.2 in December. Business activity edged up to 61.5 from 58.6 but the employment component declined to 51.6 in January from 55.7. A similar figure of 56.5 points is on the cards now.
- UK rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. Bank of England policymakers voted unanimously to keep rates on hold in February but raised the possibility for the first time that it could cut interest rates below 0.5% if inflation weakens further. British inflation plunged to 0.3% in January, the lowest level since records began in 1989 and far below the BoE’s 2% target. The BoE noted it may cut rates below zero in the coming months. BoE policymaker Martin Weale said the bank will need to start raising interest rates sooner than investors expect as inflation recovers from current low levels. No changes are expected.
- Euro zone rate decision: Thursday, 12:45. The European Central Bank announced the start of a massive government bond-buying program to pump billions in new money into the euro zone economy starting from March until the end of September 2016. ECB President Mario Draghi said that by September 2016, more than 1 trillion euros will be added from quantitative easing. The ECB is trying to restore inflation to its target of just below two percent; consumer prices fell in December, but there are doubts, and not only in Germany, over whether printing fresh money will work. No change is expected now, but Draghi has a lot to talk about: the ECB’s role in the Greek crisis, how Draghi sees inflation evolving after the stabilization in oil prices, hopes for growth and more. The president of the ECB usually moves markets
- US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits edged up unexpectedly last week to 313,000, from 282 in the prior week. The 31,000 rise was the biggest jump since December 2013. Economists expected claims to reach 288,000. The four-week average increased to 294,500 from a revised 283,000 the week before. Chair Janet Yellen noted in her congressional testimony this week that there are still too many unemployed, wage growth is still slow and inflation remains well below the Fed’s objectives.
- US Non-Farm Payrolls report: Friday, 13:30. The US economy added 257,000 jobs in January, exceeding expectations of a 230,000 jobs gain, reconfirming the strength of the US economy. The economy has created more than 1 million new jobs in the last three months and the private sector has added 11.8 million jobs over 59 straight months of job growth, extending the longest streak on record. Wages in the private sector also increased, with a rise of 12 cents in average hourly earnings to $24.75. Over the last 12 month average wages have increased by 2.2%, up from a previous estimate of 1.9%. However, despite the increase in new jobs, the unemployment rate increased slightly from 5.6% to 5.7%. Economists believe the rise may be a result of the huge surge in the labor force increasing statistical noise, but can also reflect growing optimism about the chances of gaining work. Estimations currently stand at a gain of 241K, an unemployment rate of 5.6% and a rise of average hourly earnings of 0.2% m/m.
- US Trade Balance: Friday, 13:30. The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in December reaching $46.6 billion 17.1% higher than in the previous month. . It was the biggest percentage increase since July 2009. The trade gap suggested a downward revision to the fourth-quarter gross domestic product. Imports increased 2.2% to $241.4 billion, and imports of non-petroleum products edged up to a record high, a sign of strengthening in the domestic economy and a strong US dollar. Exports declined 0.8% to $194.9 billion in December. A narrower deficit of 41.6 billion is on the cards now.
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newdigital, 2015.02.28 16:51
EUR/USD forecast for the week of March 2, 2015, Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair
fell hard during the course of the week, closing towards the bottom of
the range. That being the case, looks as if the EUR/USD pair will
probably fall from there, heading to the 1.11 handle next, and then the
1.10 level. Any rally this point time should be a nice selling
opportunity and we believe that the 1.15 level is massively resistive.
We like rallies the show signs of resistance, as it offers value in the
US dollar. If we break down below the 1.10 level, this market could very
well fall to the parity level next.
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newdigital, 2015.03.03 05:11
EUR/USD Drops Below 1.12 (based on marketpulse article)
he dollar edged up on Monday, with an index that tracks the greenback against major currencies touching an 11-year peak even after soft economic data.
The euro, which is off nearly 10 percent in the last three months, had been up by as much as a third of a percent against the dollar on Monday but surrendered gains and last traded flat at $1.1192.
The yen went through 120 against the dollar for the first time since Feb. 12. The dollar was last up 0.50 percent to 120.09 yen, marking a three-week high for the dollar against the yen. The dollar index was last up 0.14 percent at 95.427 after earlier going as high as 95.514, its highest since September 2003.
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newdigital, 2015.03.04 09:08
Euro Exchange Rate: EURGBP and EURUSD Weakness Forecast to Resume
Eurozone inflation rebounded in February with the annual cost of living standing at -0.3%, up from -0.6% in January, the EU statistics agency Eurostat said in preliminary data.
Markets had expected a reading of -0.5%; the positive surprise got the shared currency off to a strong start.
Any upside surprises in Eurozone data will have notable impacts on the EUR owing to the massive amount of negative bets currently placed against the currency.
Contrast this to the pound sterling which hardly moved in response to March’s positive Manufacturing data. It will take blow-out positive data surprises to shift the GBP precisely because the market is so massively aligned behind the currency.
Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com, comments on the EU deflation numbers:
“Mario Draghi would have had his fingers crossed before the consumer price index figures were released this morning, and though the results were better than expected, the outlook for Europe is still precarious.
“At least Draghi isn’t alone in fighting deflation. Of the 28
countries in the EU, 23 are officially in deflation and the UK looks
likely to make it 24 in a few weeks’ time. Having already embarked on a
massive bond buying programme, and with interest rates already at
historic lows in many member countries, it’s difficult to see how Draghi
and Co. will be able to escape deflation anytime soon.”
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newdigital, 2015.03.06 13:13
EUR/USD slips close to 11-1/2 year lows on Draghi remarks
On Thursday, Draghi confirmed that the ECB will begin purchasing euro zone government bonds on March 9 under its new quantitative easing program.
The combined asset purchases will amount to €60 billion per month and are expected to run until September 2016, or until the ECB sees that inflation is on a "sustained path" to its target of close to, but below, 2% in the medium term.
In addition, the ECB raised its growth forecast for this year to 1.5% from 1.0% previously, followed by faster growth in 2016 and 2017.
But it cut its inflation forecast for 2015, saying it now expects inflation to be flat, down from 0.7% previously. It then expects inflation to increase to 1.5% in 2016, up from 1.3% and 1.8% in 2017.
Meanwhile, sentiment on the dollar remained fragile after data on Thursday showed that the number of Americans who filed for unemployment assistance rose by 7,000 to 320,000 last week from the previous week's total of 313,000.
The euro was also lower against the pound, with EUR/GBP edging down 0.10% to 0.7229.
Later in the day, the U.S. was to release the closely watched government report on nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate and average earnings.
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H4 price is on bearish market condition with flat after good breakdown of the price movement:
D1 price is on primary bearish for trying to break 1.1183 (D1) support level for the bearish to be continuing:
W1 price is on secondary flat within the primary bearish
MN price is on bearish breakout with 1.1097 (В1) support level
If D1 price will break 1.1183 support level on close bar so the primary bearish market condition will be continuing
If D1 price will break 1.1449 resistance level so we may see the secondary market rally with the possibility to the reversal of the price movement from bearish to the bullish condition
If not so it will be bearish ranging between 1251.80 and 1306.82 levels
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on EURUSD price movement for this coming week)
2015-03-02 01:45 GMT (or 03:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HSBC Manufacturing PMI]
2015-03-02 08:15 GMT (or 10:15 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Spanish Manufacturing PMI]
2015-03-02 10:00 GMT (or 12:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - CPI Flash Estimate]
2015-03-02 15:00 GMT (or 17:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
2015-03-03 08:00 GMT (or 10:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Spanish Unemployment Change]
2015-03-04 01:15 GMT (or 03:15 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech]
2015-03-05 12:45 GMT (or 14:45 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate]
2015-03-06 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Trade Balance]
2015-03-06 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on EURUSD price movement
SUMMARY : bearish
TREND : ranging