D1 price is on reversal of from bearish to the bullish market condition:
is on bearish market condition with market rally started on Friday on close W1 bar with 1.4950 support level
is on bearish breakdown with 1.4950 support level; just market rally was started as secondary trend on open monthly candle
If D1 price will break 1.4988 support level on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing for whole the weekIf D1 price will break 1.5412 resistance level - we may see the reversal of the price movement from bearish to the bullish with ranging as a secondary trendIf not so it will be bearish ranging between 1.4988 and 1.5412 levels
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on GBPUSD price movement for this coming week)
2015-02-16 00:01 GMT (or 02:01 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Rightmove HPI]
2015-02-17 09:30 GMT (or 11:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - CPI]
2015-02-18 09:30 GMT (or 11:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Claimant Count Change]
2015-02-18 09:30 GMT (or 11:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Unemployment Rate]
2015-02-18 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Building Permits]
2015-02-18 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - PPI]
2015-02-18 19:00 GMT (or 21:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes]
2015-02-19 11:00 GMT (or 13:00 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - CBI Industrial Order Expectations]
2015-02-19 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Unemployment Claims]
2015-02-19 15:00 GMT (or 17:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]
2015-02-20 09:30 GMT (or 11:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Retail Sales]
SUMMARY : bearishTREND : ranging
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newdigital, 2015.02.14 12:32
newdigital, 2015.02.16 05:45
GBP/USD Rallies Above 1.54 after BOE Comments (based on marketpulse article)
Sterling scaled a six-week peak early on Monday following recent
hawkish-sounding comments from the Bank of England, while the other
major currencies were subdued in a holiday-riddled week.
U.S. markets are shut on Monday for the Presidents’ Day holiday,
while many centers in Asia will be closed later this week for the Lunar
New Year holidays.
The pound climbed as far as $1.5435 in early trade, from around
$1.5407 late on Friday in New York, reaching a high last seen on Jan. 2.
It was last at $1.5415.
newdigital, 2015.02.14 13:10
GBPUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)
Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Neutral
The British Pound rose for a third consecutive week against the US Dollar after a hawkish-sounding Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report rekindled interest rate hike speculation, as expected.
Governor Mark Carney reminded investors that tightening is the next
most likely direction for monetary policy, adding that the central bank
intends to look past near-term downside inflation shocks from falling
food and oil
prices. Investors now price in at least one 25 basis point increase in
the baseline lending rate over the coming 12 months, with futures
markets reflecting bets on a move in the fourth quarter of this year.
Sterling can hardly expect to coast upward
unmolested however. There is much that can happen between now and the
end of the year that can upend the currency’s recovery. The revival of
Eurozone redenomination risk stands out in the near-term as nervous
markets prepare for another round of negotiations between Greek and EU
officials over the country’s debt woes on Monday. A similar sit-down
produced no results last week and the situation looks increasingly intractable: Greece’s government won a key confidence vote, confirming its mandate to scrap the existing EU/IMF bailout program. Meanwhile, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble bluntly dismissed rumors of a 6-month extension on Greek debt repayments as “wrong”.
Both sides face negative fallout without an accord. Eurozone officials don’t want to endanger the bloc’s structural integrity by setting a precedent for a country to leave, an outcome with unknown consequences. Meanwhile, the newly-minted Greek administration surely understands its survival depends on ending economic hardship, which voters equated with EU-imposed austerity. Its fortunes might swiftly turn if a disorderly “Grexit” fails to end the malaise or compounds it.Political brinksmanship has been the status quo throughout the Eurozone debt crisis, so more of the same before a stay of execution is cobbled together is not surprising.
If Monday’s meeting elevates hopes for a deal, the Pound is likely to
face selling pressure as capital inflows seeking refuge from Euro-linked
instability reverse course.
Furthermore, the markets’ policy bets will continue
to evolve with incoming economic news-flow. The coming week features a
potentially formative bit of event risk as January’s CPI figures cross
the wires. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to drop
to 0.4 percent, the lowest since at least 1989, but Mr Carney’s sanguine
posture on this front will likely dilute the figures’ potency. Instead,
all eyes will be focused on the core CPI print – a reading that
excludes the influence of volatile items the BOE has opted to dismiss –
which is expected to rise for a second month to 1.4 percent. UK price
growth data has broadly tended to underperform relative to consensus
forecasts over the past two years. If that trend continues and a soft
core reading emerges, Sterling may retreat as rate hike expectations
newdigital, 2015.02.14 17:51
GBP/USD forecast for the week of February 16, 2015, Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair broke
higher during the course of the week, and as a result the market looks
as if it’s reaching for the 1.55 handle. That is an area that has a
significant amount of resistance, and as a result we are actually
looking for a selling opportunity in that general vicinity. In fact, we
can’t buy this market until we get above the 1.58 level, which is
something that we do not anticipate seeing anytime soon. With that, we
are bearish and ignoring the bullish pressure that we’ve seen recently.
newdigital, 2015.02.17 12:00
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation
is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the
central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation
"The rate of inflation faced by households has fallen to its lowest
level on record. The Consumer Prices Index, which measures changes in
the prices of the goods and services bought by households, increased by
0.3% in the year to January 2015, down from 0.5% in December 2014.
With the rate of inflation slowing, commentators are considering the
possibility of deflation – where prices, overall, become cheaper than
they were previously. While some prices (such as motor fuels and food)
are lower than they were a year ago, others (such as clothing and
furniture) are rising."
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
GBPUSD, M5, 2015.02.17
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
GBPUSD M5: 63 pips price movement by GBP - CPI news event
Next resistance level is 1.5439:
But according to Brainwashing system (D1 timeframe) - the uptrade was already started and buy trade should be opened in the beginning of 6th of February with +103 pips in profit for now (4 digit pips):
newdigital, 2015.02.17 17:08
GBP/USD’s February Uptrend Holding Even After Weak CPI - Here’s Why (based on dailyfx article)
A quick scan of GBP-related headlines this morning will
reveal the dire warning: 'UK Inflation Slows More Than Forecast to
Record-Low 0.3%' (Bloomberg). But a look beyond the headline data shows
that price pressures are actually building in the UK economy, which may
be contributing to seemingly quizzical response by the British Pound in the wake of the data.
core inflation figure - stripped of the fuel component - actually shows
the second consecutive month of increasing price pressures. So while
the headline yearly figure dipped to a record low +0.3%, the core yearly
figure increased to +1.4% in January from +1.3% in December and +1.2%
in November. The data fits in neatly with the Bank of England's diagnosis last week in its Quarterly Inflation Report
that, but for dampened exogenous conditions, the domestic environment
is perking up and a rate hike shouldn't be dismissed over the coming
Sure enough, rate hike
expectations are intact after today's CPI data, despite the misnomer
that is the 'all-time low' headline figure. The Credit Suisse Overnight
Index Swaps and forward rates, which at a point in January were
suggesting a late-Q3' or early-Q4'2016 rate rike, are now pricing in
25-bps into the British Pound over the next 12-months - suggesting the
market should be looking for the Bank of England to raise rates in
newdigital, 2015.02.18 08:13
Trading the News: U.K. Jobless Claims Change (based on dailyfx article)
Another 25.0K contraction in U.K. Jobless Claims may encourage an
improved outlook for the real economy, but the lack of stronger wage
growth may generate a limited market reaction in GBP/USD as the Bank of
England (BoE) remains in no rush to normalize monetary policy.
Why Is This Event Important:
As a result, the BoE may retain a wait-and-see approach throughout the
first-half of 2015, and we may continue to see a unanimous vote to
preserve the current policy until there’s a sharp rise in household
However, waning business outputs along with the slowdown in building
activity may drag on hiring, and a dismal employment report may trigger a
near-term pullback in the British Pound as it raises the BoE’s scope to
retain the highly accommodative policy stance for an extended period of
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish GBP Trade: Claims Decline 25.0K or Greater Accompanied by Stronger Wages
GBP/USD Daily Chart
GBPUSD, M5, 2015.02.18
GBPUSD M5: 60 pips price movement by GBP - Unemployment Rate news event
newdigital, 2015.02.19 05:50
[USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting, providing
in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that
influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.
FOMC Minutes - Reactions From 10 Major Banks
BofA Merrill: The recent steady stream of Fed speakers
advocating for a potential June rate hike led to expectations for
relatively hawkish FOMC minutes. The headlines for the minutes surprised
to the dovish side, and led to a decline in Treasury yields and the US
dollar. However, a closer reading suggested a more modest dovish bent
with a lot of disagreement among participants. Thus, attention now
shifts to Chair Yellen's Congressional testimony next week, which in our
view should elaborate and update the assessment of risks while still
leaving a June liftoff in play. We expect persistently below-target
inflation delays the Fed until September, but the minutes confirm a fair
degree of uncertainty about the timing of the first rate hike.
Credit Agricole: The minutes of the January FOMC
meeting were relatively dovish and spelled more caution over the
inflation outlook and timing of the rate liftoff. On balance, we
continue to expect rate normalization to begin in the Q3 2015.
UBS: The minutes of this FOMC meeting are quite
ambiguous. There was no definitive view on the impact of foreign
developments. Also, there was no clear view on the outlook or the timing
of the first rate hike. This was due, likely in part, to the fact that
there was uncertainty about the right inflation measures to look at and
what other measures might influence them. Even the phrase "patient" was
debated: Would removing it cause markets to adjust the timing of the
first rate hike too aggressively?...Unfortunately, all the cross
currents give us little direction. Prior to the re-acceleration in wages
and the continued strong labor market readings and the rebound in oil
prices, it would appear that fading a June hike would have made sense
given these minutes. Post these realities, it is not clear. The
testimony next week is unlikely to prove too instructive as Yellen
testifies on behalf of the committee, which last met on January 28th.
For now we will keep our forecast of a June rate hike counting on the
still-strong labor market and rebound in energy prices to win the day.
We will have to be "patient" to see how this wind blows.
Deutsche Bank: The minutes from the January 27 - 28
FOMC meeting did not indicate any substantive changes to the growth
outlook compared to the Fed's most recent projections released last
December. The near-term inflation outlook was revised down slightly due
to further declines in oil prices. However the staff's inflation
forecast for 2016 and 2017 was "essentially unchanged." There was
considerable debate over the interpretation of market-based measures of
inflation compensation but there were no firm conclusions with respect
to the longer-term inflation outlook, which the FOMC still sees as
gradually rising toward its 2% target. Moreover, the Fed reiterated the
view that low energy prices were a net positive for the economy. In
short, there were no material changes with respect to the economic and
ANZ: The minutes from the January FOMC meeting were
more dovish than expected although we do not expect there has been a
wholesale change in view. The FOMC appears more concerned about risks
from offshore and the higher USD and many FOMC members would prefer to
keep the fed funds rate at near zero bound for a longer time. In our
view, we would not read too much into the term 'longer'. In addition,
given many of the offshore risks - such as the Greek and Ukraine
situations - now look more likely to be resolved, this should allay a
lot of the stated reasons for hesitancy. We continue to look for the
first hike around mid-year although we acknowledge the risks of the Fed
waiting have increased. Yellen's speeches next week will be important
NAB: The killer paragraph in the minutes of the Fed's
January meeting reads as follows: "Many participants indicated that
their assessment of the balance of risks associated with the timing of
the beginning of policy normalization had inclined them toward keeping
the federal funds rate at its effective lower bound for a longer time".
In FOMC speak, many is taken to mean a majority, and these words have
had the effect of pushing implied money market yields in the fourth
quarter of 2015 down by about 5bps on average, and by as much as 10bps
further out along the shorter end of the yield curve. It's worth
remembering here that the mood music coming from Fed officials ahead of
the minutes - but since the meeting itself - had been consistent in
suggesting that a June Fed 'lift-off' is still a very live risk. Janet
Yellen's testimonies next week now loom large. Trading will be thinner
than normal given today is the Lunar New Year holiday and so Greater
China is shut.
SEB: It is our understanding that the Fed minutes did
not suggest that the FOMC is paving the way for a June rate hike as
"many officials were inclined to stay at zero for longer". Moreover, the
drop in inflation expectations was apparently worrying since a number
of participants emphasized that they would need to see either an
increase in market-based measures of inflation compensation or evidence
that continued low readings on these measures did not constitute grounds
for concern. While we may have a different view after Chair Yellen's
semi-annual testimony before congress next week, the minutes are not
suggesting to us that "patience" will be dropped as early as in the
March statement. Our forecast still is for liftoff a few meetings later,
Barclays: Our main takeaway from the January FOMC
minutes is that concern about downside risk to inflation has risen and,
consequently, the bar for raising rates by June is higher than it was in
December. We maintain our baseline forecast for a June rate hike at
this juncture, but the risk of a later takeoff has risen, particularly
if downside surprises on core inflation continue. We look to Chair
Yellen's comments in front of the US Senate and House of Representatives
next week for further clarification on the committee's thinking.
Danske: The minutes from the January FOMC meeting
strongly suggest that the FOMC's fed funds rate projections will be
lowered at the upcoming 18 March meeting and the minutes were in general
more dovish than recent Fed speeches. Data received since the FOMC
meeting on 28 January includes the January employment report, which was
very strong. However, we doubt that one data point is enough to turn the
Committee's sentiment, in particular when inflation indicators continue
to be soft. This challenges our call that the Fed will remove 'patient'
from the statement in March and raise the fed funds rate this summer If
February data on employment continue to show solid improvement and
inflation indicators stabilise, we continue to believe the Fed would
like to have the flexibility to raise rates in June. Hence, 'patient'
should be dropped in March but will be combined with soft comments from
Janet Yellen and lower economic projections in order to keep the market
CIBC: The latest minutes show that many officials felt
dropping patient could lead markets to price in too early a move to
tighten policy, putting upwards pressure on rates when some sectors like
housing are still showing uneven signs of recovery. Notwithstanding
that, several members suggested that a "late departure" could result in
monetary policy becoming excessively accommodative. Not inconsistent
with that view, there was general agreement that the minutes should
"acknowledge solid growth over the second half of 2014, as well as the
further improvement in the labour market." The minutes overall show that
opinion within the FOMC remains deeply split on when the Fed should
take the next step on the road to policy normalization. Although
inflation has moved down, the minutes also affirm the statement in
suggesting that most members continue to see the drop as a transitory
consequence of lower oil prices, and therefore not sufficient at this
point to warrant a notable delay in moving interest rates up from the
lower bound. Today's release does not change our view that June still
remains the most likely date for policy lift off. A slight positive for
bonds given further signs of the Committee's reluctance to dispense with
the key word "patience". The focus now shifts to Yellen's testimony
next week for further information on the policy outlook.
GBPUSD, M5, 2015.02.19
GBPUSD M5: 60 pips price movement by USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes news event