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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
newdigital, 2015.02.19 19:18
GBP/USD holds steady close to more than 1-month highs (based on nasdaq article)The pound held steady close to more than one-month highs against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, as the greenback remained under pressure after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting imdicated that interest rates could stay on hold for a longer period.
GBP/USD hit 1.5466 during European morning trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5448.
Cable was likely to find support at 1.5339, Wednesday's low and resistance at 1.5586, the high of January 2.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
newdigital, 2015.02.20 05:53
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Rally Pauses Below 1.55 Mark (based on dailyfx article)The British Pound is digesting gains against the US Dollar after rising to the highest level in nearly two months. Near-term resistance is at 1.5551, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 1.5737. Alternatively, a turn below the 23.6% Fib at 1.5322 opens the door for a challenge of a horizontal pivot at 1.5194.
We bought GBPUSD at 1.5373, initially aiming for 1.5551. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close below 1.5194. We will take profit on half of the position and move the stop to breakeven once the first target is reached.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Press review
newdigital, 2015.02.20 09:03
Trading the News: U.K. Retail Sales (based on dailyfx article)A contraction in U.K. Retail Sales may spur a near-term pullback in GBP/USD as it dampens the outlook for a stronger recovery in 2015.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
However, we may see private-sector consumption outpace market expectations as the Bank of England (BoE) anticipates lower energy prices to boost disposable incomes, and Governor Mark Carney may continue to prepare U.K. households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs as the central bank head turns increasingly upbeat towards the economy.
Nevertheless, improved confidence paired with the pickup in job/wage growth may produce a better-than-expected sales report, and a further improvement in household spending may encourage the BoE to raise the benchmark interest rate sooner rather than later as heightens the prospects for a stronger recovery.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish GBP Trade: Private Spending in U.K. Contracts 0.2% or Greater
- Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short British Pound trade
- If market reaction favors short sterling trade, sell GBP/USD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bullish GBP Trade: Retail Sales Exceeds Market Forecast- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long GBP/USD trade
- Implement same setup as the bearish British Pound trade, just in opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseGBP/USD Daily Chart
- Lack of momentum to preserve the bullish trend in RSI
may highlight a near-term top in GBP/USD as it fails to push back above
the former support region.
- Interim Resistance: 1.5500 pivot to 1.5520 (38.2% expansion)
- Interim Support: 1.5250 (100% expansion) to 1.5270 (38.2% retracement)
Impact that the U.K. Retail Sales report has had on GBP during the last release(1 Hour post event )
(End of Day post event)