[Archive] FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Consequences (Episode 11: January 2012) - page 124
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Margaret, I keep forgetting to ask, what source do you use to quote from? Is it a paid resource or is it freely available?
Mostly from the terminal, but also from Bloomberg, Reuters, SNN, BBC, Fed, ECB websites, etc. - These news are published in English, then in 6 hours to 24 hours these news are published on RBC and broker websites.
6 hours is a bit much..... it can't be.... i think it's 15 minutes tops....
Margaret, the second piece of news is supposed to kill the euro. Strange that there is no talk of an Iranian crisis - oil prices should be dropping the dollar a lot by the end of the month by my understanding, that's probably what's supporting the eu. What do you think.
Margaret, the second piece of news is supposed to kill the euro. Strange that there is no talk of an Iranian crisis - oil prices should be dropping the dollar a lot by the end of the month by my understanding, that's probably what's supporting the eu. What do you think.
Greece goes under
Germany and France continue to put pressure on Greece and its bondholders to agree to reduce Athens' debt burden. The main condition for Greece to receive a second credit tranche from the Eurozone and the International Monetary Fund is an agreement with private investors which envisages a 50% discount on some of the bonds. These negotiations should be completed by the end of January.Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy held a regular meeting in Berlin the previous Monday to discuss action plans for the troubled debtor countries. Coordination of budget and fiscal policy within the euro zone was also on the agenda. These talks were the first in a series of meetings aimed at agreeing the rules for the functioning of the newly created Fiscal Union. However, no loud statements were made after the meeting, which may indicate that there are still contradictions on a number of issues. Apparently, this was one of the restraining factors for the European currency growth, which started yesterday at the opening of trading.
The situation in the Greek economy continues to deteriorate, which markets perceive as a threat to the €130bn second tranche that European leaders agreed back in October. In order to receive these funds, the Greeks need to make further spending cuts and, as mentioned above, succeed in obtaining debt relief from private investors. The stumbling block is the latter because even a 50% write-off might not be sufficient to bring the Greek state debt into more or less acceptable shape.
The impending recession in the Eurozone, which nobody doubts we shall see at least in the first half of 2012, only exacerbates the difficulties in the troubled countries. Against that backdrop, the fight against budget deficits will be a slow burner. With falling fiscal revenues, spending cuts, when belts are also tight, can lead to serious social protests. At the same time, the persistently high Greek deficit continually increases the risk of the country defaulting on its obligations, which is putting a strain on the value of the single currency. The debt relief mechanism is essentially a nicely framed statement about the inability of the Greeks to service their debts on their own, albeit beautifully framed.
Lately, banks have become increasingly reluctant to invest in bonds of troubled countries despite the available three year loans from the ECB. According to the latest figures published on Monday, overnight deposits in ECB accounts reached a record €464bn. There is even a new trend, banks are reluctant to lend to each other, especially those who have a significant amount of bonds of troubled countries such as Greece, Spain and Italy on their balance sheets.
The macroeconomic data released on Monday was largely inconsistent. Despite an improvement in the balance of payments situation in Germany and France, the Germans have seen a cooling of industrial production through November due to a sharp decline in placed orders. With the exception of construction which rose by 4.5%, production in Germany decreased in many sectors (probably due to unseasonably warm weather). However, even these figures will probably allow Germans to avoid the recession that will befall most Eurozone countries this year.
6 hours is too much..... it can't be.... I think it's 15 minutes tops....
at least it would have caught on... 1.2815
And you do it with the market, with the market ... )))
Greece is going down
Germany and France continue to put pressure on Greece and its bondholders to agree to reduce Athens' debt burden. The main condition for Greece to receive a second loan tranche from the Eurozone and the International Monetary Fund is an agreement with private investors which envisages a 50% discount on some of the bonds. These negotiations should be completed by the end of January.Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy held a regular meeting in Berlin the previous Monday to discuss action plans for the troubled debtor countries. Coordination of budget and fiscal policy within the euro zone was also on the agenda. These talks were the first in a series of meetings aimed at agreeing the rules for the functioning of the newly created Fiscal Union. However, no loud statements were made after the meeting, which may indicate that there are still contradictions on a number of issues. Apparently, this was one of the restraining factors for the European currency growth, which started yesterday at the opening of trading.
The situation in the Greek economy continues to deteriorate, which markets perceive as a threat to the €130bn second tranche that European leaders agreed back in October. In order to receive these funds, the Greeks need to make further spending cuts and, as mentioned above, succeed in obtaining debt relief from private investors. The stumbling block is the latter because even a 50% write-off might not be sufficient to bring the Greek state debt into more or less acceptable shape.
The impending recession in the Eurozone, which nobody doubts we shall see at least in the first half of 2012, only exacerbates the difficulties in the troubled countries. Against that backdrop, the fight against budget deficits will not be very successful. With falling fiscal revenues, spending cuts, when belts are also tight, can lead to serious social protests. At the same time, the persistently high Greek deficit continually increases the risk of the country defaulting on its obligations, which is putting a strain on the value of the single currency. The debt relief mechanism is essentially a nicely framed statement about the inability of the Greeks to service their debts on their own, albeit beautifully framed.
Lately, banks have become increasingly reluctant to invest in bonds of troubled countries despite the available three year loans from the ECB. According to the latest figures published on Monday, overnight deposits in ECB accounts reached a record €464bn. There is even a new trend, banks are reluctant to lend to each other, especially those who have a significant amount of bonds of troubled countries such as Greece, Spain and Italy on their balance sheets.
The macroeconomic data released on Monday was largely inconsistent. Despite an improvement in the balance of payments situation in Germany and France, the Germans have seen a cooling of industrial production through November due to a sharp decline in placed orders. With the exception of construction which rose by 4.5%, production in Germany decreased in many sectors (probably due to unseasonably warm weather). However, even these figures will probably allow Germans to avoid the recession that will befall most Eurozone countries this year.
Greece has a margin of safety if only now the question of abolishing the disability pension for faggots is raised