Is any prediction doomed? - page 8
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I'll try to explain for those who don't understand the difference. Using a simple example.
The example is of course highly exaggerated
Too strong. To the point of inapplicability to the task at hand. How does your theory work between intersections? Or do you have a road consisting only of intersections? In my opinion there are no intersections in forex, it's more of a field.
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I'll try to explain for those who don't understand the difference. Using a simple example.
Let's say, there is someone at the crossing and looks at the car which has reached the intersection and stopped at traffic lights and is about to move. This person is standing, looking at the car and deciding in his/her mind where the car will go. So, if you transfer the current argument to this simple life situation, those who talk about prognostication most likely try to calculate the exact trajectory of the car (to within centimeters, sometimes ;) just by the way it approaches the crossroads. Sometimes it's possible, even in life, but more often it's 50/50. Or for example, determining where a car will move by its colour is a good task :) Finding patterns, on the other hand, is something else. For instance, you look - turn right, and it makes no difference how exactly you turn right, by which trajectory, or even on the curb. Of course, this example is exaggerated and, in principle, the knowledge of turn signals is given by traffic regulations, but just imagine a group of monkeys on the street. It is evident that the one who will guess to look at turn signals, but not at colour - crossings are not terrible for them. And the rest will go for cutlets. It's the same in trading.
Prediction is not made out of nothing, it is made on the basis of patterns found.
Both you and your opponents are saying the same thing in different words.
The argument is about nothing.
For twenty years of my daily driving practice I've discovered an interesting regularity (especially true in the recent years) - indicator on (or off) doesn't guarantee anything.
You can get into a meat grinder almost equally if you don't have your head on your shoulders.
I would like to join in.
I'll try to explain for those who don't understand the difference. Using a simple example.
Let's say someone is standing at a crossroads, looking at a car that has pulled up, stopped at a traffic light and needs to move. This person is standing, looking at the car and deciding in his mind where the car will go. So, if you transfer the current argument to this simple life situation, those who talk about prognostication most likely try to calculate the exact trajectory of the car (to within centimetres, sometimes ;) only along the way which it has driven up to the crossroads. Sometimes it's possible, even in life, but more often it's 50/50. Or for example, determining where a car will move by its colour is a good task :) Finding patterns, on the other hand, is something else. For instance, you look - turn right, and it makes no difference how exactly you turn right, by which trajectory, or even on the curb. Of course, this example is exaggerated and, in principle, the knowledge of turn signals is given by traffic regulations, but just imagine a group of monkeys on the street. It is evident that the one who will guess to look at turn signals, but not at colour - crossings are not terrible for them. And the rest will go for cutlets. It's the same in trading.
So you make predictions based on regularities, while you think at random (there are no 100% regularities, probabilities are traded), and there are (own term for yourself) "omens" - butterflies in the pine trees. And with a car - a green light will go - a red light will stop (you have to guard it at the next light). (the post above appeared! I agree!) (in what Leo is right? I do not understand, but he is right!, maybe like in algebra class - the problem is solved incorrectly, "...and it was not much red" - traffic light)
Too strong. To the point of being inapplicable to the problem at hand. How does your theory work between intersections? Or do you have a road consisting only of intersections? In my view there are no intersections in the forecourt, it is more of a field.
Prediction is not made out of nothing, it is made on the basis of patterns found.
Both you and your opponents are talking about the same thing in different words.
An argument about nothing.
Hence, during twenty years of my daily driving practice I've discovered an interesting consistent pattern (especially true in the recent years): an indicator light (or not blinking at all) doesn't guarantee anything.
You may get in a meat grinder almost equally, if you don't have a head on your shoulders.
As a matter of fact, we see it every day. Forecasting brings a lot of meat on the pavement. If you've lost your turnpike patterns, there's bound to be others. ;) You have to realise that patterns in the market don't last forever. Forecasting, on the other hand, brings the same result all the time ;)
By the way, speaking of driving experience. How many pedestrians have you run over lately? And given the slight decline in pedestrian discipline on the road.So the predictions are based on patterns, and you think at random (well, there are no patterns 100%, the probabilities are traded), and here's more (own term for yourself) "omens" - in the pine trees butterflies. And with the car - a green light will go - a red light will stop (you have to guard it at the next light). (the post above appeared! I agree!) (in what Leo is right? I do not know, but he is right!, maybe like in algebra class - the problem is solved incorrectly, "...and it was not much red" - traffic light)
The price is ALWAYS held for sets of lines (read crossroads). Just because magnetic field strength lines are not visible doesn't mean they can't be handled.
In fact, that's what we see every day. Forecasting brings a lot of meat. If your turnaround patterns have stopped working - surely others are emerging. ;) You have to understand that patterns in the market don't last forever. Forecasting, on the other hand, brings the same result all the time ;)
It never ends)).
I'm more comfortable peeling boiled chicken eggs on one side.
You with the other.
I respect your choice.
I don't plan to declare war.
Good luck!