Is any prediction doomed? - page 41

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sanyooooook: Is it possible to predict a random process?

one thing I don't understand is why the markets have to be a random process? here I am studying how patterns are "drawn" http://imglink.ru/pictures/10-04-12/ac0e6e17eb4e855d04dc08beff38eabc.jpg.

The numbers indicate the No. of price trajectory relative to previous bars, and by some "chance", these numbers go in a certain sequence, over 10 years, and that again by chance - regardless of the TF, for some reason this property persists. I remember there was a topic, and Swinosaurs, if I understood correctly, seemed to call such a phenomenon "context".

 
sanyooooook:

I agree that profitable forecasting is possible, but you have to forecast the right things.

Is it possible to predict a random process?(Question for mathematicians). I think the answer is: if a shooter hits his target 75% of the time, he will score about 7-8 points out of 10 possible, presumably.

Can we call this a prediction?


The market, for the most part, is not a random process. It is run by very clever algorithms, there's no other word for it, all we have to do is find the 'anti-algorithms'.
 
sanyooooook:

I agree that profitable forecasting is possible, but you have to forecast the right things.

Is it possible to predict a random process?(Question for mathematicians). I think the answer is: if a shooter hits his target 75% of the time, he will score about 7-8 points out of 10 possible, presumably.

Can we call this a prediction?


Oddly enough, the greatest success is achieved if you act against the market.
 
IgorM:

one thing I don't understand is why the markets have to be a random process? here I am studying how patterns are "drawn" http://imglink.ru/pictures/10-04-12/ac0e6e17eb4e855d04dc08beff38eabc.jpg.

The numbers indicate the No. of price trajectory relative to previous bars, and by some "chance", these numbers go in a certain sequence, over 10 years, and that again by chance - regardless of the TF, for some reason this property persists. I remember there was a topic, and Swinosaurs, if I understood it correctly, seemed to call this phenomenon "context".

I am not claiming that the market is a random process. I am only asking.

After all, before you start making predictions you need to first understand what makes it all happen. Whether it is random or not. Or a certain law disguised as random. Or is it a random pattern seemingly a certain exact sequence?

Something to think about on Friday )))

 
IgorM:

one thing I don't understand is why the markets have to be a random process? here I am studying how patterns are "drawn" http://imglink.ru/pictures/10-04-12/ac0e6e17eb4e855d04dc08beff38eabc.jpg.

The numbers indicate the No. of price trajectory relative to previous bars, and by some "chance", these numbers go in a certain sequence, over 10 years, and that again by chance - regardless of the TF, for some reason this property persists. I remember there was a topic and Swinosaurs, if I understood it correctly, seemed to call this phenomenon "context".


That's not what Swinosaurs meant. I've developed strategies based on repeating patterns... and successfully traded on them... and trades (by EA) KimIV https://www.mql5.com/ru/users/kimiv. He described these strategies briefly on his forum.
 
sanyooooook:

I am not saying that the market is a random process. I am only asking.

Because before you start making predictions, you first need to understand what makes it all happen. Whether it is random or not. Or a certain law disguised as random. Or is it a random pattern that seems to be a certain exact sequence?

Something to think about on Friday )))


You yourself have very accurately defined what I could not get to for a long time: "masquerading as a random process" and this is the fishing rod they make us fall for, but anti-logic is what will ruin them. The topic is global and not uncontroversial, but there are few individuals interested in discussing it.
 
jelizavettka:

That's not what Swinosaurs had in mind at all. And I've developed strategies based on repeatable patterns... and successfully traded on them... and trades (advisor) KimIV https://www.mql5.com/ru/users/kimiv. He described these strategies in his forum.
I called them patterns by the way, to be more precise, they are sequences of price movements
 
jelizavettka:

That's not what Swinosaurs had in mind at all. And I've developed strategies based on repeatable patterns... and successfully traded on them... and trades (by EA) KimIV https://www.mql5.com/ru/users/kimiv. He described these strategies briefly on his forum.
Patterns are not regularities, but rules which may be broken at any time, which is why they are mistaken for regularities.
 
IgorM:
I call patterns by the way, to be more precise, they are sequences of price movements

I see, so the statement that the sequences repeat is taken as the basis. But it is also important to consider the dynamics of these sequences.
 
yosuf:
Patterns are not patterns, but rules that can be broken at any time, which is why they are mistaken for patterns.

Well... perhaps... But KimIV has proven otherwise with his trading... Although yes, that does not mean that these rules are stationary and never change.
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