Searching for market patterns - page 145
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By the way, can anybody make a Renko chart with time in addition to price, i.e. if the price "stands" in place for a certain period of time, then build another bar with this price?
I know such an indicator somewhere in the Internet. The height of the bar is the same and the width is equal to the time of price's passing the distance equal to the height of the bar.
So you want the speed of price change, if it is flat, there is no speed, and if there is a trend, the indicator shows the speed or acceleration?
Not really, I don't have much knowledge, my reasoning is as follows: a regular chart has time but the price can jump a lot so we cannot catch spikes as I call it, there is a Renko that takes this into account, but Renko has no time factor, so I want to get a picture where price and time are both discrete, I cannot say whether this will help or not, but I was curious to look at it
Not really, I do not have much knowledge, my reasoning is as follows: a regular chart has a time but the price can jump a lot, so we can not catch spikes, so called by me, there is a Renko, but in Renko there is no time factor, so I want to get a picture where the price and time are both discrete, I can not say, but I was curious to look at it
And why exactly using Renko, and if you do the market analysis by candlesticks or you are more accustomed to Renko?
To begin with we put a reference point anywhere and determine the price of close[to] bar it stands on. All prices are calculated using the formula (close[i]/close[to]-1.0)*100.0. Using these values, the green line is drawn, which exactly repeats the price chart, but is expressed as a percentage value relative to the reference point. The values -4.98 and 1.93 exactly show those percentages. Further values of the green line are passed through the lowpass filter, for example МА, and a blue line is drawn. The red line is green minus blue.
There is no point in rearranging the reference point on each bar. Its position affects only the position of the blue and green lines relative to zero, their shape does not change. All other lines do not react on change of the reference point.
I want to call red line a high-pass filter, but unfortunately it is not so, it passes something that shouldn't be passed by the LPF. There are no perfect filters yet, they all introduce amplitude and phase distortion. Phase is much scarier than amplitude, so I'm trying to remove it as much as possible.
This is what a "normal" filter looks like:
It might be possible to trade somehow, but I don't really feel like it.
And here is an "unusual" filter:
You can also do this:
I don't know how you can lose here, although not all bad effects have been eliminated.
How it is possible to play????? don't speak nonsense. It is easily possible.
Your pictures are from here https://forum.mql4.com/ru/41475/page106#edit_form
and your sine prediction (alternative) from here https://forum.mql4.com/ru/12030/page50#604973-это are of course good, BUT. your period is either a constant or varies by a periodic function, as does the amplitude.
In light of all this I wonder (almost rhetorical question).
1-How would YOUR forecast behave if amplitude-varying non-stationary and period-varying non-stationary. (I would like to see a graph of a sine wave with changing periodicity and forecast).
2 - If we take the market, then the amplitude can somehow be driven into certain limits, and we can look for inertia of these limits change, as well as periodicity (tangents from tara, for example). BUT
let's assume there is non-stationarity, but sometimes there are moments of inertia of this non-stationarity, I agree you have identified it, but in the market the signal/noise level > 1 is not always the case, when this inertia could be identified and used, your forecast will identify only one signal/noise level, within the currency pair, but to answer which of the emerging inertia - no, it will be the following
Some inertia will be profitable, because you can catch some of the movement, and some will not. The market inertia you will find, and periodicity of one pair - no, you wondered how often the inertia and its periodicity occur???? So the periodicity, a kind of the second level of signal/noise determination, can be determined only from the multicurrency. And you are saying from one chart how it is possible to drain here.
If you take just one pair - I think you haven't carried out the statistics for 5 years, you can't see which cases of inertia allowed to take profit and which didn't and you need a lot of trades for MM analysis.
I think the pattern, like a sine wave, should appear around some straight line, which is the "main" pattern. For example, according to one TS, the pattern of profit from time in the market (in weeks) turned out to be as follows:
Profit = 10701 - 76t
Absolute Profit. = 1187 - 5,98t
I think the pattern, like a sine wave, should appear around some straight line, which is the "main" pattern. For example, according to one TS, the pattern of profit from time in the market (in weeks) turned out to be as follows:
Profit = 10701 - 76t
Absolute Profit. = 1187 - 5,98t
This is a dead-end approach, Yusuf. Sine-like oscillations are there, but the nature of their occurrence and maintenance is fundamentally different from radio. Since we're all colleagues here, and with you in particular, I can make you and everyone here a present for some past holidays (Crimea, Minister Lavrov's birthday, etc.).
Preface: Having considerable experience in the banking sector and its automation, I personally have not been particularly concerned about the nature of randomness in the forex market. After all, what value can have recognizing the random (undiscoverable, unknowable) nature of the forex market, if everyone already knows it? It is necessary and much more important to find a SOFTWARE of calculating the internal structure of the market in order to predict it. Isn't it so? Or more or less like that? It is just that while getting better and better results (test ones, but real test ones) of advisors' work, recently my advisors and their parameters have started showing evidently monthly changes in behavior of currencies. I am not talking about monthly cycles, but monthly radical changes of the whole range of their movement. On the very first day of each month. For me personally, it was not a big surprise - I attributed it to the monthly reports of the currency departments of bank market makers. You know, they adjust their forecasts for their aggregate currency position every month and get "permission" from management for a PLENTY of small adjustments. But the volume of such movements was clearly disproportionate to the amount of change in the conditional "spectrum" of currency movements. Personally, this used to baffle me - because banks do not make any abrupt changes, they do not really care what is the exchange rate - everything is always paid for by bank clients and banks always cut spreads for clients (importers-exporters). And just recently, in the latest issue of Global Finance magazine - and only in it I saw the clue - there was explained what everybody (and me too) seems to know: how multinationals hedge their currency risks and IN HOW MANY TIMES.
So: the banks have almost nothing to do with it - they are just children in terms of the volume of currency movements. The main movement in the Forex market today is made by multinational corporations, which, for insurance purposes, hedge currency positions of their divisions in different countries. Only no one (and I didn't either) knew before HOW MUCH of it is being done. Global Finance magazine gives the real numbers on their manipulations. These globalists today have built up massive hedges (more than banks have for banking needs) and their hedging departments CORRECT THEIR FIRST DAY OF EACH MONTH. Get it? On the first of every month, forex begins to dance in a new way, not because of the banks, but because of multinational corporations that move currency hedges where they want them to, based not on the supply-and-demand for the currency, but on their own assessment of the risk of their huge hedged positions.
Forex does not move based on supply and demand at the banks (otherwise forex movements would be "sinusoidal" and predictable), but on the "vision" of the risk departments of global corporations and their adjustments starting on the first of every month. There is no "sinusoidal" there, the change in hedge position itself is abrupt and multi-vector (in different directions). That is why the Forex market moves in different directions regularly, until it reaches some invisible limit of the "channel", after which the risk-management of the invisible global corporation sees negative in its hedged currency position and orders its bank to correct its position accordingly in order to reduce currency losses.
In fact, this is exactly the reason why hedge funds are called hedge funds - they do not anticipate the price in Forex, they move paired positions, so as not to lose in any case. Except that now the global global corporations themselves have become the biggest hedge funds and it is their adjustments of paired positions that move the forex market, coupled with fundamental trends.
Here is what a knowledgeable person from the hedge industry writes regarding professional work (about pair trading):
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http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?t=240396&page=9
DeeDeeTwo
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Toronto
Posts: 623
Ninjatrader can't even do basic Pairs Spreading...
Only an idiot scalps a single instrument...
As opposed to baskets consisting of 50 or 100 positions.
The IB Spread Trader is a complete joke for stocks...
And probably for everything else.
http://www.ninjatrader.com/support/forum/showthread.php?t=36101
That's why any serious shop builds Custom Systems...
A platform with API, C#, Excel, SQL database...
A few 1000 hours of skilled programming and 5 years of trading experience...
And you are ready to run a trading business...
As opposed to being a subsistence gambler in mom's basement.
Then you have precisely ZERO limitations...
And the entire Mook Fleecing industry hawking charts, ticks, ez-shit-on-toast...
Can go and f**k itself.
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This is a dead-end approach, Yusuf. Sine-like oscillations are there, but the nature of their occurrence and maintenance is fundamentally different from radio engineering. Since we are all colleagues here, and with you in particular, I can give you and everyone here a gift for the past few holidays.
Thanks Alex, I read it and took note. But, a good TS should adequately react to all the vagaries of the market, including the actions of the big players. In the above example, the TS in 140 weeks, probably attacked by hedge funds, hence the drawdown reaches 2.5K. Nevertheless, the ratio of average profit to average drawdown (recovery factor) = about 9. This means that by setting a deposit of 3K, weekly, with a high probability, get $76 each and accumulate for the next deposit. The said TS also loses, but overall it wins.
Well yes, that's what I'm talking about. But here's the misunderstanding (which has led to retail forex brokers being ABSOLUTELY convinced that it's impossible to win on forex AROUND FOR MASS TRAADERS):
While you (not you specifically, Yusuf, but the trader in general) are making a calculation on say 500 point-price-bars, the market is working out the next twist that started say 50 bars ago. And your forecast (your numerical algorithm) is based on the movement of the market as a whole for the last 500 bars and does not take into account these last 50 bars of twists. A profound contradiction arises between the speed of a fundamental change in the market (just 50 bars ago, but it defines the market 450 bars ahead) and the resolving power of your market analysis algorithm. For example, the Quinn-Fernandes spectral algorithm requires at least 800 points (on M15) to work properly, while the autocorrelation algorithms require about 2200 points (on M15). During this time, the verdict made by the algorithm is already outdated, which allows retail forex brokers to confidently consider mass price prediction and earning impossible.
By the way, what is your calculation base - how many points does your algorithm need?....Algorithm Quinn-Fernandes requires at least 800 points (on M15) to work properly, autocorrelation algorithms require about 2200 points (on M15). During this time, the verdict made by the algorithm already becomes obsolete, which allows retail forex brokers to confidently consider mass price prediction and earning impossible.....
Four points are enough. If you take out the tricky algorithm of course