The market is a controlled dynamic system. - page 150
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This simple process of boiling potatoes, familiar to all, gives a clear general idea of a controlled dynamic system and the processes that take place in it.
Here I have deliberately not touched upon finer points, which need to be considered in a detailed study. These include, for example, questions relating to the variability in the parameters of the dynamic system components - heater and pot - caused, for example, by the formation of soot on their surfaces. Slightly different time constants for heating and cooling. This can also include fluctuations in the mains voltage. And a number of other issues, even more subtle.
I hope everyone is clear and understandable.
If not, we will clarify. It is important to understand the processes.
And then we will take it a step further.
Who or what in the market is seen as the regulator's hand? Indeed. Not clear.
It doesn't matter. You can keep this game for yourself.
For this system, the identification of the controlling signal is important. The "author" of the signal is totally irrelevant to it (the trading system). Money is impersonal in itself.
The market should not be seen as a controlled dynamic system (which may be why people do not understand it), but as deposit filling.
A technological process - filling the column with water (the column is the bill, the water is the dough). At the bottom of the column is a spigot that connects the column in parallel with the pipeline. the water in the pipeline has a back and forth motion pattern. the task is to switch the gate valve so that the water always flows into the column and does not let it flow out of the column.
Why "the market is a controlled dynamic system?" The market can be controlled or not, but you still get a dick.
The market should not be seen as a controlled dynamic system (which may be why people do not understand it), but as deposit filling.
A technological process - filling the column with water (the column is the bill, the water is the dough). At the bottom of the column is a pipe that connects the column in parallel with the pipeline. the water in the pipeline has a back and forth motion. the task is to switch the valve so that the water always flows into the column and does not let it flow out of the column.
Why is it that "the market is a controlled dynamic system?" The market can be controlled or not, but you will still get fucked.
The example with the columns is a good one. Our task is to manage the gate valves properly, not the market.
Without a comprehensive analysis of the situation, of course it turns out woo. Only FA in conjunction with TA, MM etc bring positive results.
IHMO I will put FA in the first place, because it has the priority to determine the direction of dough movement.
TA can only correct the movement. That is, it is a kind of steering wheel for driving on the crooked paths of the markets.
P.S. We can only control our taps. And the market can be controlled ( more correctly manipulated) by a group of players.
The example of columns is a good one. Our job is to manage the valves properly, not the market.
Without a comprehensive analysis of the situation, of course it turns out ugh. Only FA together with TA, MM etc bring positive results.
IHMO I will put FA in the first place, because it has the priority to determine the direction of dough movement.
TA can only correct the movement. That is, it is a kind of steering wheel for driving on the crooked paths of the markets.
P.S. We can only control our taps. And the market can be controlled (more correctly, manipulated) by a group of players.
"Only FA + Seasonality together with TA, MM etc bring positive results." As an option - I agree - read from here. (reread the KNOWN :-) VETHING!!!)
why is "the market a controlled dynamic system?". the market can be controlled or uncontrolled, but you'll still get fucked.
The point is to identify the parameters of the market as a system and the parameters of the control function. Naturally, under certain general assumptions about their (system and control) structure. When this is done, one can make non-trivial predictions based on the data obtained. Called "blind deconvolution problem", solved by optimal control methods (as a rule).
PS One hundred and fifty pages of chattering with tongue and other organs this question is definitely not worth it. Especially those pages where the author unsuccessfully tries to explain to the rest of us that the term "governance" in the relevant science has nothing to do with oligarchs and shadow government. It would be better if Oleg spent time on the actual implementation of his model and then (if desired) share the main results, especially in terms of the adequacy of the model, regardless of whether they are positive or negative.
.... It would be better if Oleg spent time on the actual implementation of his model, and then ....
Absolutely not! The implementation of the model will show what it is really worth.