Don't tell me that TA works! - page 6
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So, TA is chart analysis and nothing more, you do not need to analyze economic news, moon phases, know the days of debt repayment and...
What is not working? the charts are not drawn? or the market is obliged to adjust to specific indicators? throw out indicators, leave only the trend lines, I use ZZ instead and analyze how and where the price moved and nothing more.
Now look globally - there are two extreme views of the market.
The first, the army of light, goodness and order, professes TA, whose fundamental property is the axiom "HISTORY REPEARS".
The second, the army of destruction, chaos and darkness (the army of gundos and flooders) espouses chaos theory (not to be confused with Williams' bastardisation of it). This army views the market as an additive system and the fundamental property of such a system is "HISTORY DOES NOT REPEAT EVERYTHING" in consequence of the so-called butterfly effect.
It is clear that the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Why, one might ask?
Because there is the so-called Oedipus effect, according to which any regularity found in the market comes to naught over time as a result of the actions of market participants. The price is formed by the ratio of supply and demand, so market participants having found a pattern, gradually bring this pattern to naught by opening transactions.
The regularities exist, but they appear and disappear. Therefore, if a pattern is found on the tester, it has either already disappeared or is disappearing.
IMHO my opinion is this.
So, TA is chart analysis and nothing more, you do not need to analyze economic news, moon phases, know the days of debt repayment and...
What is not working? the charts are not drawn? or the market is obliged to adjust to specific indicators? throw out the indicators, leave only the trend lines, I use ZZ instead and analyze how and where the price moved and nothing more.
If it's that simple, then trade for half a year and post the price. If you are just using trendlines and have regular and stable income, what for? Why ATS? Why do we need all the piles of loss-makers? Why all the piles of indicators, oscillators, etc.? Or trend lines 33 known to no one? Why wave theories?
Now look globally - there are two extreme views of the market.
The first, an army of light, goodness and order, professes TA, whose fundamental property is the axiom "HISTORY REPEARS".
The second, the army of destruction, chaos and darkness (the army of gundos and flooders) espouses chaos theory (not to be confused with Williams' bastardisation of it). This army views the market as an additive system and the fundamental property of such a system is "HISTORY DOES NOT REPEAT EVERYTHING" in consequence of the so-called butterfly effect.
It is clear that the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Why, one might ask?
Because there is the so-called Oedipus effect, according to which any regularity found in the market comes to naught over time as a result of the actions of market participants. The price is formed by the ratio of supply and demand, so market participants having found a pattern, gradually bring this pattern to naught by opening transactions.
The regularities exist, but they appear and disappear. Therefore, if a pattern is found on the tester, it has either already disappeared or is disappearing.
IMHO my opinion is this.
All knowledge is built on "history repeats itself", not only TA. Can you cite a single skill or knowledge acquired by a person without using some kind of analysis of history and its repetition?
Yes there is a lot of data. Fundamental for example the interest rate differential. Or purely technical - a glass to a certain depth. Open interest, data from COT reports etc. Anything that can be measured and presented as a time series.
sps, got it. Isn't it difficult for you to fish out profits in such a "composite" of different types of data? Aren't you afraid that you won't be able to capture all the flow of information? - Any approximation or just incomplete information can give a price prediction exactly the opposite?
ZS: I stopped being interested in the news for one reason only, I am not sure that I will be able to cover the whole flow of information, and from all the information received to determine which information is important for the price and which is just information, the only thing I made sure of is if in the morning the radio talks a lot about London, and it does not even matter what information about London - about housewives or about the fattest cat, then you should look at the GBP charts and see if there is a "lure" and nothing to stick in it, imho! ;)
All knowledge is built on "history repeats itself", not only TA. Can you cite a single skill or knowledge acquired by a person without using some kind of analysis of history and its repetition?
This is philosophy. Let's go deeper into the wilderness. There is literature on chaos theory (just not Williams)
sps, got it. Isn't it difficult for you to fish out profit in such a "composite" of different types of data? Aren't you afraid that you won't be able to grasp the full flow of information? - Any approximation or just incomplete information can give a price prediction exactly the opposite?
ZS: I stopped being interested in the news for one reason only, I am not sure that I will be able to cover the whole flow of information, and from all the information received to determine which information is important for the price and which is just information, the only thing I made sure of is that if in the morning the radio talks a lot about London, and it does not even matter what information about London - about housewives or about the fat cat, then you should look at the GBP charts and see that there is "bait" and nothing to stick in it, imho! ;)
Not difficult, because I don't use it)))) I only use price/time/volume
that's philosophy. Let's go deeper into the wilderness. There's literature on chaos theory (just not Williams)
This is not philosophy, but elementary logic. All objective types of analysis and prediction use history and its repeatability, so the difference is only in the details of use)))
If it's that simple, then you have to trade for half a year and post the price. If we only need trend lines and regular and stable earnings, then what for? Why do we need ATS? Why do we need tons of loss makers? Why all the piles of indicators, oscillators, etc.? Or trend lines 33 known to no one? Why wave theories?
I have a year's worth of profits, albeit in the region of 10% per annum, but earned on my own, I withdraw the funds by all means.
i have nothing simple in the market, i only observe and look for new strategies. this is my 5th strategy that works in profits. time will show how long it takes. usually it lasts about 3 months
i don't know how else to explain it to you -TA is a search and identification of patterns on the history, and not the fact that these patterns will continue to work
Thanks, I got it. Isn't it difficult to fish for profit in this "mix" of different data types? Aren't you afraid that you won't be able to handle the full flow of information? - Any approximation or just incomplete information can give a price prediction exactly the opposite?
ZS: I stopped being interested in the news for one reason only, I am not sure that I will be able to cover the whole flow of information, and from all the information received to determine which information is important for the price and which is just information, the only thing I made sure of is if in the morning the radio talks a lot about London, and it does not even matter what information about London - about housewives or about the fattest cat, then you should look at the GBP charts and see if there is a "lure" and nothing to stick in it, imho! ;)
difficult. You have to highlight the essentials. But the fundamentals are not analyst reports but concrete macrostatistics data.
As the great gratekov said - trade with probabilities. They may give wrong forecasts, but I bet on the positive EA by the end of the month. That's why the lot within the month is constant. I trade that with at least 90% probability the price will go in the direction of the forecast and not against it.