The market is a controlled dynamic system. - page 235

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TheXpert:
Very comparable.


that's how...

Let me repeat the question:what andunder what conditions is a prediction, as far as forex is concerned?

 
avtomat:

I repeat the question:what andunder what conditions is a prediction, as far as forex is concerned?

So?
 
TheXpert:
So?

what and ?

Can you explainwhat andunder what conditions is a prediction -- as far as forex is concerned ?

 
avtomat:

what and ?

Can you explainwhat andunder what conditions is a prediction, as far as forex is concerned ?


For example, the price in time t1 will be in the range Price1<X<Price2 with the probability P1.

Or price will reach Price1 before it reaches Price2 with probability P2. And so on. But there is no use in such forecasts))

 
avtomat:

what and ?

I'm a nub, I don't know ) waiting at last for your normal answer.
 
avtomat:


well, how can I put this delicately... such a question is capable of confusing ;))))

These are not comparable things, in terms of both goals and objectives. Or do you think a weather forecast is equivalent to a forex forecast?

.

But even if it's the same for you,what andunder what conditions is a forecast -- as far as forex is concerned ???

I do not understand. What then is your basis for buying or selling if not a forecast? Don't say it's an analysis.
On the basis of the analysis we make a forecast of where we are going to go. Of course, there are TPs without analysis, but I am not interested in them. Most likely it turns out that you have that very TS and therefore you don't agree with our position.
 
Avals:


For example, the price in time t1 will be in the range Price1<X<Price2 with the probability P1.

Or price will reach Price1 before it reaches Price2 with probability P2. And so on. However, such forecasts are of no use))


By the way, the weather forecast also uses the scheme"price in time t1 will be in the range Price1<X<Price2 with probability P1". Only instead of price, the temperature and probability P1 are usually not announced, so as not to scare people))
 
Avals:


For example, the price in time t1 will be in the range Price1<X<Price2 with probability P1.

Or price will reach Price1 before it reaches Price2 with probability P2. And so on. But such forecasts are of no use))


However,such forecasts are of no use. --- That's right ;)))

There are a lot of variants, but they are of no use. And if there is nothing to use, then why the hell do you need all these piles of variants?

 
Forecaster:


Here you have the probabilities present. This means that you have to define them beforehand in order to be able to make a prediction. You are not assigning these probabilities out of the blue. Since Forex is a non-stationary phenomenon, the probabilities are changing all the time, and you should periodically update them (ideally on every tick). There are a lot of questions that need to be answered and do not have an unambiguous solution --- and that is only for calculating probabilities, without forecasts, which add their own complications. Well, if you're doing all this, you should know what intermediate tasks need to be solved. And, I should point out, those tasks are sometimes quite extraordinary.

But it would be much clearer if you could show the forecast for some convenient for you tool XXX/YYY. This particular example of the forecast could clarify many explicit and implicit tasks and problems. This would immediately give specificity and meaning to the discussion about forecasts.

Anyway, give us a forecast - let's pick it apart.

 
Avals:
Only instead of price, the temperature and probability of P1 are usually not announced so as not to frighten people))
The probability of precipitation is there.
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