America's default, in Russian. - page 46
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Anyway, next week I am launching a pyramid-building advisor. Hoping for a sharp move. :)
the main thing is to guess the direction ))
the main thing is to guess the direction ))
what could be the direction of the default? i think the quid is going to fall, do you think the opposite will happen? by the way, august 2 is not far off...
what would be the direction of the default? in my opinion, the quid will definitely fall, do you think the opposite will happen? by the way, august 2 is not far off...
It's not clear what's going on with the yen either, is it? It's supposed to be going down, but it's going up. I mean, it's not so clear-cut. I, for instance, cannot say where it will jump (or maybe it will go in more than one direction).
Also, the words from the above article (which cast doubt on the depreciation of the dollar) came to mind:
"It will be worse than in 1998," states Nikolai Solabuto, asset manager at BrokerCreditService Group. - Prices will fall on everything. Mass dismissals, wage cuts. A $400 salary will be very respectable". According to the expert, first of all, the stock market will react like litmus paper - it will be the first to fall. Then bank rates will creep up, 200% a year will be the norm for deposits. And lastly, real estate prices will go down: a good deal will be the sale of housing at $700 per square meter in Moscow. "The state will create jobs to support the people," Solabuto believes. - Purposely give up construction machinery so that there will be more jobs. Imagine a picture of a high-rise building construction site, around which people will carry bricks like ants through forests."
So, if it goes bust, it will not only be the U.S. => what will happen and where it will shoot out is difficult to predict having publicly available information .
You have a strange notion about the direction of currency movements - sometimes with the quid goes down all together, sometimes the quid goes down and someone goes up;)
Firstly I wrote "in my opinion", secondly it was a question, I am interested in the opinions of others on the matter.
And my opinion was based on the assumption that the default does not lead to strengthening of the national currency, well, at least, I did not notice it, neither in Russia (90s), nor in Belarus (now), although it may not apply to the states ...
what could be the direction of a default? in my opinion, the quid is definitely going down, do you think the opposite can happen? by the way, august 2 is not far off...
what would be the direction of the default? i think the quid would fall, do you think the opposite would happen? august 2 is not far off...
There is a view that, on the contrary, the dollar could go up. Bonds will collapse and a wave of margin calls on accounts that use Treasury bills as collateral will follow. Hedge funds will be forced to dump their futures positions to gain liquidity. The dollar will go up... The truth is only an opinion.
I think that the safer option in this particular situation would be gold. Although if hedge funds are in dire need of money, they will start dumping even gold futures, which will negatively affect its value. Think back to 2008, gold lost a lot then, although it recovered the fastest.