Predictive indicators - page 4
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Nikkei lost almost 20% after the Japanese earthquake. Do you think this Japanese market movement between March 11th and March 15th could have been predicted by looking at past prices?
I can't decide whether to laugh when I read this, or not to laugh at it...
If you are walking down the street, I can mark your starting point, measure your speed and maybe your acceleration and calculate with great accuracy where you will be in a little while.
But if in a second you are hit at full gallop by an elephant cat, my calculation probably won't hold up.
However, I think I will very rarely be wrong, as a running elephantpotamus in the street is an extremely rare occurrence.
You think that the Japanese market movement between the 11th and the 15th of March could have been predicted by looking at past prices?
Forecasting is not a dogma, new data is a reason to revise the forecast. Predicting a decline on the 10th was only accidental, but on the 11th-12th after it started one could try to predict its continuation and even possibly its depth. Although I am deeply convinced it is not always possible to predict prices, target levels. Yes, however, we just need the direction...
I can't decide whether to laugh when I read this, or not to laugh at it...
If you are walking down the street, I can mark your starting point, measure your speed and maybe your acceleration and calculate with great accuracy where you will be in a little while.
But if in a second you are hit at full gallop by an elephant cat, my calculation will probably fail.
However, I think I would very rarely be wrong, as a running elephantpotamus in the street is extremely rare.
The market is full of elephant pimps, big and small. Think about it. If a pattern emerges, such as a movement between elephant-pots along a certain path of inertia, all the market participants will want to profit from it. But they cannot all win. So, your theory assumes that there will be fools who will not see this pattern and will trade against it at a loss. The Efficient Market Hypothesis, have you heard of it, or laughed a lot?
Yusuf, judging from the picture, the forecast line changes its position on every bar. Such an indicator cannot be called predictive, much less predictive in terms of targets. You have an ordinary trend indicator, probably a very good one. Everything is very simple: if 3 lines connect, open a position, if they do not, close it. If nothing good comes out, use several lines as filter or trawl. Or use it together with another indicator. Predicting specific targets will lead you to a dead end.
https://c.mql5.com/3/3/EURUSD-M1-T50-08022011-900-1230.gif
Generally, the video on your link begs the question, why this redrawing regression is needed, if as I understand it is redrawn at some threshold condition.
Wouldn't it be simpler to use a simple non re-drawing channel changing direction according to a certain threshold? It is the threshold points that are important for trading. If there are a lot of them and they switch on and off, you may lose the entire deposit within a short time period.
I meant a channel similar to the one on a controlled EMA.
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Yusuf, judging from the picture, the forecast line changes its position on every bar. Such an indicator cannot be called predictive, much less predictive in terms of targets. You have an ordinary trend indicator, probably a very good one. It is very simple: if 3 lines connect, open a position, if they do not, close it. If nothing good comes out, use several lines as filter or trawl. Or use it together with another indicator. Predicting specific targets will lead you to a dead end.
https://c.mql5.com/3/3/EURUSD-M1-T50-08022011-900-1230.gif
My aim was not to predict specific goals, because there aren't any, but to predict the prevailing price direction and, if possible, estimate the "weight" or momentum of each bar and define the degree of influence of the latter information on the whole price change process. As far as I have managed to do so, you can see from the given gif, one must take into account that this theory has grown out of nothing and is not based on anyone else's statements. Apparently, we must give credit to the theory itself for leading us to some price movements at the first attempt, now it must be improved by specifying our specific goals. One, no less important problem, apparently, it may already solve - it is the problem of SL. The Expert Advisor will not allow to lose profits in case of an undesirable development, which is what the SL is for. I don't understand, any thread or question, instantly turns into a criticism of my vision of the process, instead of going in the direction of the thread's topic. And now, my goal was to find out if there are in principle other predictive indicators or indicating preferential price directions. Instead they suggest predicting force majeure situations, which earthquakes are. By the way, after the first data on yen appreciation, the indicator timely signalled the depth of DE's fall and indicated approximately when the recovery would start. That was not the point. Now under the pressure of general criticism, I will ask a direct question to everyone: Can you confront my indicator with any indicator, which either poorly or as good as it is, with guessing the price direction, the moment of reversal, the price value, where the price tends to end the trend? If not, then don't criticise in name, I think, but help me to improve the existing indicator
However, I think I will very rarely be wrong, as the running elephant in the street is an extremely rare occurrence.
I see price manipulation by the big players happening almost daily. The Swiss central bank alone is something to behold.
So the elephantpats as I see it, are running in herds and every day. I have a multi-currency panorama and I can see which currency is going up or down at the expense of which one. That is, what the big players that drive the market are doing. I think that everything is not so easy with the calculations of the speed and the trajectory.
Yesterday if you calculate the average speed of USDJPY, it suddenly accelerates several times, falls like a stone, and then in a few minutes turns and rushes as if it wants to fly into space. And then it goes back and forth a couple more times. So what's the trajectory and the average movement there?
If you haven't seen "A Good Year", watch the main character in the first part of the film, the trader of the London Stock Exchange, who moved the stock market with 5 millions and made about 80 millions profit on it. This episode reflects very well the almost daily manipulation of the currency markets, only by bigger dudes.
So your theory assumes that there will be fools who will not see this pattern and will trade against it at a loss. The efficient market hypothesis, have you heard of it, or laughed a lot?
You have no idea even the approximate number of these fools. I used to think it was 95-97%. It turned out to be a vastly underestimated figure.
And I haven't heard about the hypothesis, I'll look it up when I have time, maybe it's really funny...
Suppose you were to count the average speed of USDJPY yesterday, starting from the night and ending at 11 o'clock, and it suddenly accelerates several times, as if it falls like a stone, and then in a few minutes turns around and as if it wants to fly into space. And then it goes back and forth a couple more times. So, what is the trajectory and average movement there?
And someone is probably forcing you to trade a shady pair on the short term.
Price takes everything into account. This is a true statement, but only in part.
The correct statement is "The price has already considered everything". The current price (now) contains information about the past movement (historical data) of the instrument + the external impact (the totality of all factors affecting the instrument).
Blue is always available. It can be easily analyzed by the simplest indicators and other tools.
The red is always unavailable. Because of this, what the indicators "say" at the moment is incomplete information. In this case, the incomplete information can be considered as inconsistent for practical purposes. An ideal indicator can consider only the blue, in fact, even the blue has not been completely taken into account.
Above we were talking about the indicators without adaptive, self-learning mechanisms. The indicators with learning can theoretically predict what red will be on the basis of the analyzed blue. Of course, the efficiency here can never reach 100% and in practice loss-making trades will occur. But the results will be better only for indicators with learning mechanisms.
I hope this logical chain is simple and transparent. Imho, all of the above is quite obvious, but they are constantly on the forum, discussing and sobbing about indicators and their role in the life of traders .:)
Now let me ask a direct question to everybody under the pressure of general criticism. Can you compare my indicator with any other one, which can react good or bad as it is with predicting of price direction, reversal moments, price values, where the price goes when the trend is complete? If not, then don't criticise in name, I think, but help me to improve the existing indicator
Yusuf, I may be a little high-minded, I wrote above about your efforts and intentions.
Have you looked at the link provided
https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/127291/page5
What is your opinion of this indicator and forecast. It draws ahead with high enough degree of plausibility, at least it shows most of reversal points correctly.