Predictive indicators - page 2

 
Mathemat:
The signals of two different systems are almost always incomparable: systems can show opposite signals at the same moment in time - and both may be right.


Please find these signals, even if they are opposite. I want to find out how bad my indicator is, since it was said to be "drawing" and where is "non-drawing"?

 
yosuf:
Wanted to compare readings and signals, pity it turns out there's nothing to compare it with yet, unless members suggest a suitable one.

Do you think that market prices can be predicted only by knowing their history? If you answer that question in the affirmative and can explain why prices are predictable by themselves, then you can easily build a predictive indicator.
 
yosuf:


Please find these signals, even if it is the opposite. I want to find out how bad my indicator is, since it was said to be "drawing" and where is "non-drawing"?

Yusuf, understand no predictor will tell you the exact movement down to the pip. But if the general trend is shown correctly by the indicator, you'll be an "ace" if you follow some elementary trading rules. The truth is never far away... :0))
 
gpwr:

Do you think that market prices can be predicted just by knowing their history? If you answer that question in the affirmative and can explain why prices are predictable in and of themselves, you can easily build a predictive indicator.

I am sure of it within the framework of my proposed theory Universal Regression Model for market price prediction and on its basis such an indicator has been created. I wanted to compare its readings and signals with existing ones, if there are any.
 
yosuf:

Please tell me, are there any predictive indicators or scientifically based strategies that look to the future?

Yes. And to find out "how bad the indicator is", you should perform a backtest.

You should not compare "its readings and signals with existing ones", but the results obtained from its use.

If you manage to get more than two spreads, it is a good indicator.

 
paukas:
...

If you manage to get more than two spreads, then it is a good indicator.

Yes. And if the indicator also produces results independent of volatility and the presence of a trend, then it will be a great indicator.
 
joo:
Yes. And if the indicator also gives results independent of volatility and the presence of a trend, then it would be a great indicator.
Yeah, but it doesn't work like that.
 
paukas:
Yeah, except it doesn't work like that.
Of course. All indicators (at least those which give a signal on crossing signal lines - and these are almost all commonly used indicators) are only "good" at most. And they are only good at the right part of history for them.
 
yosuf: Please find these signals, even if it is the opposite. I want to find out how bad my indicator is, since it was said to be "drawing" and where is "non-drawing"?

Yusuf, this is a dead end. The only way to check what your indicator can do is to create an EA based on it and run it on history. Or you can work using its signals on a demo account or on a microreal account. To compare to the signals of other systems is usually a senseless waste of time and I am not going to do it.

I am sure of it within the framework of my proposed theory Universal regression model for market price prediction

Unfortunately, subjective confidence in your own theory is not enough, no matter how much you want to think about it. You have a long way to go in order to find your own system, which is strewn not with diamonds, but rather with rakes and mines. Of course, you have the opportunity to do it differently than most people do. Then turn logic and reason to the fullest and go ahead, but still listen to others sometimes.

 
Mathemat:

Comparing with signals from other systems is most often a pointless waste of time, and I'm not going to do it.

To be honest, I somehow don't see any other simpler and more versatile way to quantitatively compare the forecasts of the two systems. If it's interesting, which is what Yusuf seems to want, it would be the easiest option.... Who will do it and who will "waste" time on it, is another question).

Reason: