Strategic foresight systems - page 46
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Прогнозы дело неблагодарное. Трудно всем угодить. Критиков многократно больше, чем тех кто реально понимает что происходит. Поэтому вступать в полемику с такими и быть обплёванным мало кому хочется.
That's right. Just don't pay attention to such critics. Although I have long ceased to be an apologist for TA and VA, I continue to be amazed at the skill of my colleagues and respect any prediction about the future that is made out loud.
to ZetM
If that's the case.... research institute for cycles. Have a look, maybe you will find something useful for yourself.
Thank you for the information. It's not so straightforward and you have to sort it out. In brief (conceptually), spectral analysis implies that you have a model of the process that allows you to perform such an analysis. So there is a serious discrepancy between these models and characteristics of a real quote process. And hence, all the curves that symbolise "spectra" have very little to do with the primary quotation process.
PS
So, about 58 trading days have passed since the trend started (by my classification):
Indeed, there are strong indications that this wave is already ending, but will only be clarified/confirmed in the near future. Looking at the reversal probability field, here is the picture (crossed lines are where the quote is now)
The red sausage-like curve is the area of "increased" probability, where the reversal point may be "drawn" in the nearest 5-30 trading days. But with each approach, the probability that this movement will end increases.
The red wiener curve is an area of "increased" probability where the pivot point may "pull in" in the next 5-30 trading days. But with each approach, the probability that this movement will end increases.
Goodnight. Just wanted to clarify the phrase.... But witheach approach, the likelihood that this movement will end increases..... Approaching what? Where is your pivot zone? Has it stayed the same?
The pivot zone is the red curve in the price area and in time (very roughly). If we take only the price area of the second wave, the frequency of its completion is here:
And it's simple, the lower the price comes in, the higher the probability that the move will end.
It all makes sense now...)))) Confused by the expression ....Red wiener curve .... (under the new chart), as I am used to the expression ....... red curve in the price area... under the old graph (it is more informative) ....))))
It all makes sense now...)))) Confused by the expression ....The red wiener curve .... (under the new chart), as I am used to the expression .......The pivot zone is the red curve in the price area... under the old chart....))))
Do you foresee a correction in the next 2-4 days?
Theoretically, the model could be refined, i.e. several forecast horizons could be combined, thereby obtaining several levels. But this is not the case right now, moreover, there is not even such an object in the forecast. Only the probability field for 10 day horizon reversal points is investigated, and corrections are not even investigated. I am thinking how to extend the model.
Keep watching, so far all in line with the global forecast:
Waves (or rather pivot points) plotted on the probability field (approximately):
Price is now at the point where the transition to the dotted line is marked. Calculation of the probability of completion of the second wave (recall), average 1.32:
Can't get specific about the pivot area yet, but I think price will go lower with some sort of correction.
PS1: Checked on history - the model, works, i.e. the model takes into account all possible reversal points (a kind of field of "possibilities"). What remains to be done is to figure out how to specify the pivot zone.
PS2: Yes, most importantly. This is the probability field as of 02.15, but it changes every day, and generally speaking, it needs to be recalculated. But it's not that simple :o(