Strategic foresight systems - page 18

 
Farnsworth:

  • EURUSD - doesn't want to go down yet, looks like it will go up for another 5-7 days. Does anyone have the same assumptions?

This is a guess at the beginning of Monday. I will post later on Tuesday to see how the forecast will change.

 
-Aleksey-:

This is a guess at the beginning of Monday. I will post the early Tuesday forecast later to see how the forecast changes.

very similar (!!!!), price area five days ahead:

red is the price at the moment

 

How long are you counting one pair, Serge?

To be more precise: the calculation usually consists of two parts. Suppose that the working TF is H4.

The first part is preparatory, it can be done seldom. Its price is a couple of hours, and it is executed once a week, say. This may be calculation of some multidimensional, "heavy", "century" arrays, which can even be written into a file (for safety in case of connection failure). A "century" array is information that changes slowly, and can be updated even less than once a week.

The second part of the calculation is operational. It can be done in a minute or two. And it can easily be done at the opening of each H4 bar, having already prepared an "age-old" array.

Or is it different for you?

 
Farnsworth:

No you don't! I'm more concerned about EURUSD at the moment, and that in the sense of whether or not I'm right in my assumptions. Although .... comparing unhealthy market activity and "disappearance" of my colleagues - strangerr, ULAD, Zet, I begin to suspect something wrong ... someone has turned over control of the world to that machine (while he pours himself a coffee), and as a consequence - the terminators are among us!!!


I'm not lost. Monday is not very clear for me in terms of analysis. Poor candles on the daisies and fours. Tomorrow we'll see what the chart shows.
 
-Aleksey-:

This is a guess at the beginning of Monday. I will post early Tuesday later to see how the forecast changes.

For the beginning of Tuesday. The thin yellow line is if each intermediate point is counted accurately (as an end point) and the thick yellow dots are the approximate trajectory to the accurately calculated end point. Friday's fourth tick point (formerly fifth) is now 600 points lower.

 
Mathemat:

How long are you counting one pair, Serge?

To be more precise: the calculation usually consists of two parts. Let the working TF be H4.

The first part is preparatory, it can be done seldom. Its price is a couple of hours, and it is executed once a week, say. This may be calculation of some multidimensional, "heavy", "century" arrays, which can even be written into a file (for safety in case of connection failure). A "century" array is information that changes slowly, and can be updated even less than once a week.

The second part of the calculation is operational. It can be done in a minute or two. And it can easily be done at the opening of each H4 bar, having already prepared an "age-old" array.

Or is it different for you?

a little different, my operative part can take 2-3 hours :o( Was going to briefly describe my astrolabe for the foreseeable future and at the same time had some thoughts on the issue in private, something I have not yet had time to do.
 
ULAD:

I'm not missing. Monday is not very clear for me in terms of analysis. Poor candles on the daisies and fours. Tomorrow we'll see what the chart shows.

OK, I'm reminded of the cat in Shrek. It seems that in the second part, sitting in a bar and drinking a mug of beer, the cat, wiping his moustache with his paw, utters a winged phrase - "I hate Mondays".

PS: but still there are terminators among us :o/

 
Quote Trend Type Start date Duration (days) 07.03
P (%)
08.03
P (%)
09.03
P(%)
AUDJPY(+) (correction)03.01564.5 52.9 57.3
AUDUSD(+)02.161431.5 46.5 62
CHFJPY(+)02.101835.9 22.4 25.8
EURCHF(+)02.28675 38 41
EURGBP(+)02.171330.5 41 31.3
EURJPY(+)02.28676.4 19.6 20
EURUSD(+)02.161422 24 29.6
GBPCHF (-)02.151559.6 60.1 45
GBPJPY(-) -> (+)03.01567.2 80.9 29.8
GBPUSD(+)02.141637.4 27.9 42.9
NZDUSD(-)02.032349.2 20.6 9.5
USDCAD(-)02.101832.4 42.8 49.2
USDCHF(-)02.141638.3 29.1 38.9
USDJPY(-)02.171352.2+ 56.9 59.8

  • AUDJPY is, as expected, a difficult situation to analyse. The difficulty is this. Forecasting horizon is 5 days, the error of a trend change may be 1-3 bars (days), plus high probability of trends, 1-3 days (10-12%). This all together sometimes does not give an understanding of what is going to happen in the near future. This is the kind of "misunderstanding" the system is now demonstrating.
  • GBPCHF seems to be in the same situation, the trend is smaller than the forecasted one and it can go down further
  • NZDUSD does not want to change the trend yet either
  • USDCAD might change the trend but it is better to wait one more day

PS1: "crossed out" means, that data is out of date and refers to an old trend

PS2: Sorry, I will be away from 9 to 11, but I will not be able to track the system's work :o(

 
Farnsworth:

OK, I'm reminded of the cat in Shrek. It seems that in the second part, sitting in a bar and drinking a mug of beer, the cat, wiping his moustache with his paw, utters a winged phrase - "I hate Mondays".

PS: but nevertheless there are terminators among us :o/


Friday is certainly better than Monday:))

And terminators in the sense of industrial espionage? I assume they're not napping. I've never placed it anywhere but as an image on one forum. I admit it is a coincidence but still.

Let's go to the pictures. The eu went in correction to all currencies.

The banks have had enough of the euras on the probability of a rate hike and now do not know where to put it.

The probability of a rate hike is high but not a hundred percent. Trichet said they would not be the first to raise the rates. The question then is after who? Does anyone have any thoughts on that? Have a say.

 

A divergence has been drawn on the lower indicator based on the principle of increments on the EURUSD pair. The indicator line has hit the trend line. I do not exclude the variant with a significant fall of the pair to 1.36xx this week.

Reason: