Probability assessment is purely mathematical - page 2
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The solution for the problem at hand is probably
0.5 + 0.5*0.5 + 0.5*0.5*0.5 + etc.
You have to calculate the progression...
But how do you just calculate in the general case?
Let's take a simplifying approach.
Let's admit that we have no statistics.
There is a 50% chance that the price will move up or down by a point.
... and one point up - two down = 66/33, ... point up/three down = 75/25. and the further in, the less chance of getting out:)
98-profit
2-loss
Very close to this, although not exact, because the market is not completely random, a weak deterministic component exists. It is this deterministic component that allows those who are able to identify it to make money.
This is understandable, but solved "as is"
Then just open 100 times, randomly, with a constant lot. Set a 49 pips take and 1 pips sl. After you close the 100th, you will get 100 orders closed.
If you have 50/50, you will have 50 losses of 1 pip and 50 profits of 49 pips, good luck and you are welcome.
I think you misunderstood abolk_a and Tantrik_a's idea: they meant that the probability of the price not reaching TP in n points and turning around is the same as the probability of the price passing these remaining n points....
Regarding your advice: What is the probability that the price of every second order placed, once it has passed 47 pips to the TP, will not reverse? ...... So, according to your idea, the probability of this event occurring = 100%. In this case we would indeed have a situation where every second trade would reach the TP. But we are talking about, what is the probability that the price will pass these 2 points? Catch the difference? .......
But the question is, what is the probability that the price will pass those 2 points? Do you catch the difference? .......
I think you misunderstood abolk_a and Tantrik_a: they meant that the probability that the price will not reach the TP by n pips and turns around is the same as the probability that the price will pass these remaining n pips....
Regarding your advice: What is the probability that the price of every second order placed, once it has passed 47 pips to the TP, will not reverse? ...... So, according to your idea, the probability of this event occurring = 100%. In this case we would indeed have a situation where every second trade would reach the TP. But we are talking about, what is the probability that the price will pass these 2 points? Do you catch the difference? .......
Tantrik
If it says there is 1 point left to the trigger, then there is one point left. It's not two and it has nothing to do with the spread.
The exact solution is
1 - 0.5^49 degree of Take Profit.
**********************************************
But 100 there is 50 in the other one. I do not know how to calculate it.
And most importantly it seems that it should be similar.
10 there 5 to the other. - If that's the case, degrees won't help.
Maybe you should really check the history? It would probably be easier.
Tantrik
If it says there is 1 point left to the trigger, then there is one point left. It's not two and it has nothing to do with the spread.
The exact solution is
1 - 0.5^49 degree of Take Profit.
**********************************************
But 100 there is 50 in the other one. I do not know how to calculate it.
And most importantly it seems that it should be similar.
10 there 5 to the other. - If that's the case, degrees won't help.
Maybe you should really check the history? It would probably be easier.
Let's assume I have one point left before the stop profit is triggered.
And 49 pips before the stop loss is triggered.
How do I estimate the probability that the stop loss will trigger? It's something very complicated...
It's amazing how tenacious the idea of probability is. What if there is no probability at all? Does such a thought not occur? In the market, a trend movement is: together, in stride and with a bang! Going to profit or loss, it depends.