Probability assessment is purely mathematical - page 3
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And I think that "probability", "statistics" is a fetish, a self-deception, the purpose of the mataparatus is to form hope and make people believe in it. But information was incomplete and remains incomplete. And in order to predict the next event, the incompleteness of information must first be dealt with. Until it is dealt with completely, the probability is 50/50
Let's assume I have one point left before the stop profit is triggered.
And 49 pips before the stop loss is triggered.
How do I estimate the probability that the stop loss will trigger? This is something very complicated...
If you count for an abstract case like random walk, Mischek wrote you correctly Although this conclusion is based on independence of increments both in magnitude and direction. Which is probably not true, even based on the kind of distribution of the increments. But for your case sl/tp=49/1 is fine
But the market is not SB and every situation is different, so there are no probabilities. More precisely - their estimates can contain significant errors.
So for your case the profit will trigger with probability 0.98+-tram stop :)
if counting for an abstract case like random walk, Mischek wrote you correctly Although this conclusion is based on independence of increments both in magnitude and direction. Which is probably not true, even based on the kind of distribution of the increments. But for your case sl/tp=49/1 is fine
But the market is not SB and every situation is different, so there are no probabilities. More precisely, their estimates can contain significant errors.
So for your case the profit will work with probability 0.98+ - tram stop :)
Yes, the subject of applying probability distributions to a random result is alive and well .......... :))) as mentioned here already ...
If (as in the condition) there is no statistics, then I have it and I have a scatter of results on multicurrency test...
But if on the topic, it is of course 50/50 - because in this case we have a random walk in a given range (slow - slow).
Obviously there are no conditions for getting static advantage, the situation is left on its own, and it's a deal-breaker.
In fact, the practical application of the technique of profit extraction is not in the plane of fetishizing self-deception, and not in the systematization of results of a known 50/50, but in understanding of cyclically repeated distributions and balance deviations from the default 50/50.
And of course time as the main criterion for what happens.
In fact, the practical application of the profiteering technique, however, lies not in the fetishisation of self-deception, nor in the systematisation of results from a deliberate 50/50, but in the understanding of cyclically-repeating distributions, the balance deviating from the default 50/50.
These letters are too clever for my feeble mind to grasp.
I'm probably still recovering from my birthday:))
Yes, the topic of applying probability distributions to a random result is alive and well ..........
Let's assume I have one point left before the stop profit is triggered.
And 49 pips before the stop loss is triggered.
How do I estimate the probability that the stop loss will trigger? It's something very complicated...
From the player's ruin problem we have:
p(sl) = tp / (sl + tp) = 1 / 50 = 2%
p(tp) = sl / (sl + tp) = 49 / 50 = 98%
p(tp) + p(sl) = 1 = 100% (full probability theorem is satisfied)
From the player's ruin problem we have:
p(sl) = tp / (sl + tp) = 1 / 50 = 2%
p(tp) = sl / (sl + tp) = 49 / 50 = 98%
p(tp) + p(sl) = 1 = 100% (full probability theorem is satisfied)
That is, if we follow the recommended sl/tp=1/2 ratio in the textbooks we get that the probability of a player going broke is 66% ?