Study1: multi-currency analysis for scalping and beyond - page 16
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I'm talking about Thomas, I'm talking about Jeremiah. I said let's discuss something concrete and move on to the next one, but I have the same old thoughts again .......
The nature of the discussion gives the impression that you have no idea what to discuss, what questions to ask.
Shit .... How can a person who knows about some topics and does not know what direction to choose the right question. I communicate in different directions trying to discuss different things and from the discussions to choose the right direction for yourself.
If it makes sense to look for a deviation from the mean value - that's what I do. Deviation of what?
Aleksander:
and what result are you interested in? exactly EURUSD/GBPUSD ! - so this is bullshit... that's not the point... Triangles (read lock) are not profitable :) dig in another direction - not triangular :)
Let's dig in the quadrangle direction.
"Chain": buy GBPUSD- sell GBPJPY - buy EURJPY - sell EURUSD in equal lots same shit as the triangle - net balance: USDJPY is sold (some part of the lot, you can calculate exactly).
"Chain": buy AUDUSD - sell AUDJPY - buy NZDJPY - sell NZDUSD in equal lots same shit as the triangle - net balance: USDJPY was sold.
If you combine these chains into one basket, you also get the same shit - the net balance: the same USDJPY is sold. Why bother with such a mess if you can just sell USDJPY?
( We can change the number of lots of currency pairs in order to equalize the number of separate currencies in the basket - a "market-neutral" portfolio, but we will not have anything besides eight spreads and short-term deviations due to inaccuracy of quotation machines, all this has already been discussed and solved at this forum.
Now let's group currency pairs in a different way:
BUY- GBPUSD, EURJPY, AUDUSD, NZDJPY and
SELL- GBPJPY, EURUSD, AUDJPY, NZDUSD.
Yes, yes, we got the T101 system of 8 currency pairs.
There have been many discussions on forums about this system and its trading rules, many different indicators, many baskets....
Let's take some indicator of the T101 system that representsequity or, for example, the relative total price change of "buy" and "sell" pairs.
For example, like this.
Green chart - the relative summary change of prices GBPUSD, EURJPY, AUDUSD, NZDJPY; red chart - the relative summary change of prices GBPJPY, EURUSD, AUDJPY, NZDUSD. We can see that the charts "walk" synchronously and reach some extremums, after which they go back. It doesn't always happen that way, it all depends on which reference point to select, which TF and other factors.
But, nevertheless, in my opinion it is possible to try "fishing" here.
Everything comes down to finding a basket of currencies, or in another way a synthetic financial instrument, or an index (as you like),equity of which would fluctuate in a channel for a long enough period of time. And then it's as simple as a ticking bomb - we trade the synthetic instrument (basket, index, ...) from the border of this channel.
Oh, shit. I got involved. Honestly, I don't see much to discuss. Well, yes, arbitrage synchronises the quotes of different pairs, zeroing in on the arbitrage component. Well, yes, the distortions indicate some tension in the market (with some probability, because they may be random). So, yes, the tension may "burst" in one direction or another. Well, it may not burst, but it may well consolidate. Everything is raw here. And how to cook it is not very clear. Any ideas?
That's the point - it's desirable to investigate this tension and its build-up and weakening.
Let's dig in the quadrangle direction.
"Chain": buy GBPUSD- sell GBPJPY - buy EURJPY - sell EURUSD in equal lots same shit as the triangle - net balance: USDJPY is sold (some part of the lot, you can calculate exactly).
"Chain": buy AUDUSD - sell AUDJPY - buy NZDJPY - sell NZDUSD in equal lots same shit as the triangle - net balance: USDJPY was sold.
If you combine these chains into one basket, you also get the same shit - the net balance: the same USDJPY is sold. Why bother with such a mess if you can just sell USDJPY?
( We can change the number of lots of currency pairs in order to equalize the number of separate currencies in the basket - a "market-neutral" portfolio, but we will not have anything besides eight spreads and short-term deviations due to inaccuracy of quotation machines, all this has already been discussed and solved at this forum.
Now let's group currency pairs in a different way:
BUY- GBPUSD, EURJPY, AUDUSD, NZDJPY and
SELL- GBPJPY, EURUSD, AUDJPY, NZDUSD.
Yes, yes, we got the T101 system of 8 currency pairs.
There have been many discussions on forums about this system and its trading rules, many different indicators, many baskets....
Let's take some indicator of the T101 system that representsequity or, for example, the relative total price change of "buy" and "sell" pairs.
For example, like this.
Green chart - the relative summary change of prices GBPUSD, EURJPY, AUDUSD, NZDJPY; red chart - the relative summary change of prices GBPJPY, EURUSD, AUDJPY, NZDUSD. We can see that the charts "walk" synchronously and reach some extremums, after which they go back. It doesn't always happen that way, it all depends on which reference point to select, which TF and other factors.
But, nevertheless, in my opinion it is possible to try "fishing" here.
Everything comes down to finding a basket of currencies, or in another way a synthetic financial instrument, or an index (as you like),equity of which would fluctuate in a channel at a long enough period of time. And then it's as simple as a ticking bomb - we trade the synthetic instrument (basket, index, ...) from the border of this channel.
This is all primitive as it takes the average of the pair properties and they have different effects on the currency in the cluster.
Everything comes down to finding a basket of currencies, or in other words a synthetic financial instrument, or an index (as you like), whoseequity would fluctuate in a channel on a long enough period of time. And then it's as simple as a ticking bomb - we trade the synthetic instrument (basket, index, ...) from the border of this channel.
That's the problem - there is no channel that exists for a long time, and maybe there is? It's been proven hundreds of times that the pound and the yen are correlated > 90% of the story, maybe there are crosses that behave the same way, you have to look for it.
ZS: there seems to be something similar https://www.mql5.com/ru/code/8977
This is all primitive as it averages pair properties and they have a different impact on the currency in the cluster.
that's the problem - there is no channel that has existed for a long time, and maybe there is? it's been proven a hundred times already, the correlation of the pound and the yen > 90% of the history, maybe there are crosses that behave the same way, we need to look for it
ZS: here's something like this https://www.mql5.com/ru/code/8977
So is there a channel or not?
In my opinion (NMV), there is a channel, but for a NEAR amount of time.
We enter the market synthetically from the border of the channel, if there is a profit - we take it, if not - we break it by NEUTRAL.
Any constructive opinions, colleagues?