Finding local highs and lows in price - page 6

 
faa1947:

ZZ refers to redrawing indicators, i.e. the pivot #0 marked by ZZ may or may not remain.

Incorrect, the designated pivot cannot go anywhere; a redrawing ray does not indicate a pivot; it only shows the current position of the extremum, which has not yet been fixed.

By the way, I never draw it in my ZZ, that is why it never redraws :)

 
Candid:

A redrawing ray does not indicate a reversal; it only shows the current position of the extremum, which has not yet been fixed.

By the way, I never draw it in my ZZ, that is why it never redraws :)


I would like to return to my main point: the probability that pivot #0 is a true reversal increases with each new candle from 0% to 100% when a new pivot signal appears.

 
faa1947:


I'd like to get back to the main point: the probability that pivot #0 is a true reversal increases with each new candle from 0% to 100% when a new pivot signal appears.

How much less likely is the probability of a reversal on a past candle than the probability of a reversal on a present candle?
 
sanyooooook:
By how much is the probability of a reversal on a past candle less than the probability of a reversal on a present candle?

obviously by some ratio of these candles to an unknown length X, which is the future length of the current wave whose reversal we are expecting... Useless probability from the unknown. Calculated ex post facto.

 
denis_orlov:

obviously by some ratio of these candles to an unknown length X, which is the future length of the current wave whose reversal we are expecting... Useless probability from the unknown. Calculated ex post facto.

that's what I'm saying
 
denis_orlov:

obviously by some ratio of these candles to an unknown length X, which is the future length of the current wave whose reversal we are expecting... Useless probability from the unknown. Calculated ex post facto.


Hmm, ex post facto. We are talking about a prediction, of course. Although we see the story and we are trying to predict whether the reversal will hold or not after turning #0.
 
Candid:

A redrawing ray does not indicate a reversal; it only shows the current position of the extremum, which has not yet been fixed.

By the way, I never draw it in my ZZ, that is why it never redraws :)

I draw the 0-th unformed ray (current extremum) as a dotted line. As it is shown here. Sometimes I need to count levels from it. To kind of estimate a local correction.


 
Svinozavr:

I draw the 0th unformed ray (the current extremum) as a dotted line. As it is shown here. Sometimes I need to count levels from it. To kind of estimate a local correction.



I think that it is more correct to draw. In any case, it shows the current trend direction. On the breakdown of the level by the ray at the turn #1, we can build breakthrough TS. And in this strategy, we can consider the probability of turning point 0 to be 100%. If it is not 100% - it is the probability of a profitable trade! This example shows the importance of estimating the probability of reversal #0.
 
Svinozavr:

Я 0-й несформированный луч (текущий экстремум) рисую пунктиром. Как здесь вот. Иногда нужно бывает посчитать от него уровни. Чтоб типа прикинуть локальную коррекцию

Another example. We consider that the reversal of ZZ has taken place if it is followed by a reversal of the moving average as shown on the chart.

It is clearly seen that false reversals of ZZ behind #0 cannot be avoided, but they have become much less and we can already speak about a TS, and by ZZ we do not have any at all.

 
faa1947:

Another example. We consider that the reversal of ZZ has taken place if it is followed by a reversal of the moving average as shown on the chart.

It is clear to see that false reversals of ZZ behind #0 cannot be avoided, but they have become much less and we can already talk about a TS, while on ZZ we do not have any at all.

Yes, there are as many ways to consider the turn as you like (what to build ZZ on). It's been written about a hundred times already. No, more...))

I'm just talking about how I'm displaying the unformed 0 ray and that's all. And why. Here I have transferred the extended d-levels to the 0th ray.

Reason: