EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 1) - page 718

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Helex >> :
He's not really looking there.

He has a strong divergence on the daily chart from 9300 (1100 pips).

And if it goes down, 9300 is just right for the rules.

 

A return, so to speak, is inevitable.

Either need to pull up to 1110 or so.

 
The economic recovery has been delayed :)
 
gip >> :
The economic recovery has been delayed :)

We should speed up this recovery-decay process,

Americans used to claim that their currency was backed by gold,

But after De Gaulle brought up a ship full of their waste paper demanding it all be exchanged for bullion, they no longer speak up.

If we could find a De Gaulle like that now, the process would get off the ground...

 

Currencies are at an equilibrium point at the moment. I think there will be momentum on the euro.

 

Fibo

Posted 10:04 04.12.2009

Hello!

Stock indices have been declining all day yesterday. I suspected this yesterday when I noted that a double-top pattern had formed on the DJ index. What will be the reversal?

The support of the uptrend has not been broken-that is why it is premature to talk about it, even the 21-moving has not broken the downside line yet. The support is located around 10000, and that is where the price may go down, following the wave-like flow of the chart, when the technical pattern is implemented.

Oil also fell yesterday to 75.72 and it is almost at the support line of the long-term trend. Gold after opening at the high of $1226/oz was down and today the traditional gap of $15.10, but only down. How long can we go up, it's time to correct a bit. For how long, given the rising MACD?

EUR/USD was neutral in this backdrop, staying sideways. An unexpected drop of the US Services Business Activity Index below the key 50-point level, showing a decrease in the non-manufacturing activity, reversed the previously rising pair and the dollar partly recouped its morning losses. The worse things are going in America, the stronger the dollar is. That's the fundamental analysis.

ECB President Trichet told the press-conference that the plans to cut the anti-crisis programmes are not a signal that the interest rates in the Eurozone will rise. But the Fed's St Louis Bullard said that it may be time to rethink the approach when high unemployment makes it impossible to talk about tightening monetary policy.

There is not much data today, but all of it is quite important. Therefore the last day of the week might compensate for the low volatility of the previous days.

Viewed from the technical point of view, EUR/USD might move in different directions even though the long-term uptrend has not broken through yet. In my opinion, it has more chances to rise than to break a solid support.

The GBP/Dollar is traded in a long term sideways trend and it has a higher probability of further declines towards 1.6300.

The USD/JPY, though it rose to 88.20/88.30, but it did not hold a very convincing position and there is not much strength to hold it. If the Japanese regulators help it, then the pair will move higher to 92.00. Otherwise we will see a decline. In my opinion, the case from the row of nasty.

And finally about the dollar index. Does anyone see an upward reversal on the chart? I don't think there's any more questions.

Have a good day!

Analyst of FIBO Group, Nersesov Michael

 
Today's news in the studio! :)
 
Dec 04 - 12:00 CA Net Change in EmploymentThenet change in the number of people employed in Canada.Increases in employment are generally accompanied by higher consumption and expenditure levels. At the same time, higher employment, consumption and expenditures may lead to heightened inflationary pressures that encourage central banks to tighten monetary policy. If the Bank of Canada were to raise interest rates, it would put upward pressure on the Canadian dollar.

Because this is the main employment report in Canada it tends to have significant impact on the market. The headline figure is the change in employment in thousands.		 Nov k
15 -43.2
Dec 04 - 12:00 CA UnemploymentThepercentage of people in the total - labour force without jobs but willing to work and are actively seeking employment.Lower unemployment bodes well for the economy, translating into more income-earning workers and greater consumption. While such increased expenditure accelerates economic growth, it can also heighten inflationary pressures. On the other hand, a higher unemployment rate tends to lead to lower consumer spending and a contracting economy. The Unemployment Rate is one of the most watch headline indicators of Canada 's labour market. Nov %
8.6 8.6
Dec 04 - 12:30 EU ECB Executive Board member Bini-Smaghi participates in panel at University of Chicago Booth School of Business in London





Dec 04 - 13:30 US Hourly EarningsAnindicator of how the average level of pay is changing .The Average Hourly Earnings figure provides insight into future spending and inflation. A High Average Hourly Earnings bodes well for future consumption, as workers have more disposable income. High figures may indicate inflationary pressures due to employee's additional potential to spend. The figure is either measured in hourly or weekly averages or as a percentage change from the previous month. Nov % m/m
0.2 0.3
Dec 04 - 13:30 US Non-farm PayrollsMonthlychange in employment excluding the farming sector .Non-farm payrolls is the most closely watched indicator in the Employment Situation, considered the most comprehensive measure of job creation in the US. Such a distinction makes the NFP figure highly significant, given the importance of labour to the US economy. Specifically, political pressures come into play as the Fed is responsible for keeping employment in a healthy range and uses interest rate changes to do so. A surge in new Non-farm Payrolls suggests rising employment and potential inflation pressures, which the Fed often counters with rate increases. On the other hand, a consistent decline in Non-farm Employment suggests a slowing economy, which makes a decline in rates more likely. Nov k
-125 -190
Dec 04 - 13:30 US Unemployment RateThepercentage of people registered as unemployed in the United States .The figure is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed individuals in the labour force by the total labour force. Where the headline figure Change in Non-Farm Payrolls generally moves the market upon release, the Unemployment Rate serves as the most popular snapshot figure for current labor conditions in the US.

The unemployment figure can give insight into the economy's production, consumption, earnings, and consumer sentiment. A lower unemployment rate equates to increased expenditure, as more people have jobs and wages to spend. Increased expenditure encourages economic growth, which can spark inflation pressures. Conversely, high levels of unemployment signal economic instability and weakened demand.

Persons are considered unemployed if they are able and willing to work but without a job and have actively sought employment within the last four weeks. The labour force includes all employed and unemployed individuals 16 years and over. 		Nov %
10.2 10.2
Dec 04 - 15:00 US Factory ordersDollarvolume of new orders, shipments, unfilled orders and inventories as reported by domestic manufacturers.Factor Orders is not a widely watched economic release. The Advance Release on Durable Goods Activity reported one week earlier tends to grab more market attention, given that durable goods make up more than half of factory orders.

Factor Orders does provide a comprehensive look at the manufacturing sector. Specifically, the New Orders figure can act as a gauge of demand across industries while Shipments are indicative of supply. The Unfilled Orders and Inventory figures reconcile the balance between New Orders and Shipments; high Shipments are indicative of an excess of demand relative to supply, high Inventories signal an excess of supply over demand.

Figures are reported in billions of dollars and also in percentage change from the previous month.

On a Technical Note: The New Orders figure measures the value of orders received by manufacturers for new products from both domestic and foreign sources. The total value of products shipped is calculated in Shipments while Unfilled Orders measures the value of goods backlogged for order but not yet shipped. Lastly, Inventories gauges the amount of unsold goods held by manufacturers.		 Oct % m/m

0.9
Dec 04 - 15:00 US Philadelphia Fed President Plosser to give opening speech before "Policy Lessons from the Economic and Financial Crisis" forum





Dec 04 - 3:00 pm CA Ivey PMIAmonthly measure of the change in purchases by corporate executives.One hundred and seventy-five managers distributed among different regions and sectors are asked: "A headline value above 50 indicates an increase in purchases from the previous month and a value below 50 indicates a decrease.

The PMI can be used to measure business optimism and forecast economic growth. Business firms increase purchases and spending in response to growing demand for their goods and services, a high PMI suggests overall expectation for an expanding economy. Furthermore, if businesses are optimistic about future economic conditions they will increase spending now in order to prepare for future demand in their goods and services.

Note: The Institute of Supply Management publishes a similar index known as the "Reports on Business" for the United States. Unlike the Canadian PMI, the Reports on Businesses uses mid-month data, adjusts for seasonality, and asks a combination of five questions. As a result, the Canadian PMI tends to have larger month to month movements than the U.S. version		 Nov index
60 61.2
Dec 04 - 18:15 US St. Louis Fed President Bullard to participate in forum discussion on "Lessons for Monetary and Fiscal Policy"





http://www.forex-trader.h16.ru/economic_calendar.htm





 

Another Hazin article

http://fintimes.km.ru/obzory/krizis/8772

 
EURUSD is flatting again... Not even interesting anymore, the 4 hour candles, 10-15 pips each, did not change the price at all.
1...711712713714715716717718719720721722723724725...2305
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