Advisor based on fundamental analysis - page 4

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Another link to follow up http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=19293
 
kch:
kailex:

I have an idea to develop an EA (or a separate indicator) that displays general market sentiment according to fundamental analysis indicators...

Criticism, comments and suggestions are welcome.

Mr. kailex, why do you need it?

Or do you think it is possible to write a profitable EA based on these indices and FAs?

I think so. It's just that all EAs based on TA alone lack, in my opinion, a link to reality. It seems to me that TA's postulate is not very good - the price chart takes into account everything. It certainly does, but it doesn't give a full-fledged opportunity to predict and follow the price. If the price falls somewhere because of some economic factors, no indicators will help. Of course, the principles of MM and competently placed stop-losses will save from a collapse, but in the end most systems work at breakeven level or minimum profit. In general, if you think about FA is the cause, price changes and charts are the consequence. And if we know at least to some extent the cause, we can better navigate the consequences.
 
kailex:
If people are interested and there are willing to cooperate and make such an indicator/advisor by joint efforts and ideas.
If you tell us how much you are going to invest in your mega-project and depending on its size, people from different sides will be willing to take part in the creation of such an indicator/advisor through joint efforts.
 

You can analyse price charts endlessly, but I'm not sure you can identify all the trends in people's behaviour on them.
At the end of the day, the market is made by people who have a rather simple psychology about the market.
If you look at the forecasts and analyses of FA analysts and the implications of important news, you can see that the influence of FA factors is often quite primitive and transparent. For example, if the US economy is deteriorating across the board, the dollar will fall, conversely, it will rise. Everything is transparent. Of course, this is also influenced by the performance of the countries of the respective currencies in the pairs, but the fact is clear to me. It does not mean that the price will always behave that way, but it provides some additional data which could be very useful for Expert Advisors. The FA can save the EA from a price collapse, and the TA can save it when the market is not behaving as it should according to the FA.

 
kailex:
kch:
kailex:

I have an idea to develop an Expert Advisor (or a separate indicator) that displays the general market sentiment according to fundamental analysis indicators...

It has a certain positive effect on the market.

Mr. kailex, why do you need it?

Or do you think you can write a profitable Expert Advisor based on those indices and FA?

I think so. It's just that all EAs based on TA alone lack, in my opinion, a link to reality. It seems to me that TA's postulate is not very good - the price chart takes into account everything. It certainly does, but it doesn't give a full-fledged opportunity to predict and follow the price. If the price falls somewhere because of some economic factors, no indicators will help. Of course, the principles of MM and competently placed stop-losses will save from a collapse, but in the end most systems work at breakeven level or minimum profit. In general, if you think about FA is the cause, price changes and charts are the consequence. And if we know at least to some extent the cause, we can better navigate the consequences.
If you want to create an EA for d/w trading using FAs, you might be right.
I think that even if you guess the value of an index or news (like interest rate changes or the US unemployment rate ), it won't help you, because the market may react differently to this news or not react at all.
Take, for example, a couple of years' worth of payrolls, and see how that FA affected the quid's price on the day that news came out.
 
kailex:

The FA can save an advisor from a price collapse and the TA can save him when the market does not behave as it should according to the FA.


Also, they can both drain at the same time.
 
Reshetov:
kailex:
If people are interested and willing, we can cooperate and make such an indicator/advisor through joint efforts and ideas.
Name the amount of money you are going to invest in your mega-project and, depending on its size, people from different sides will come running to take part in the creation of such indicator/advisor through joint efforts.


Unfortunately, I have no money to invest in this project. If anyone believes in the idea - I think it will be an advance payment for the effort. They will then more than pay off (I'm pretty sure of that) on the trading accounts. Later, the system can be upgraded to add fuzzy logic, analysis of textual forecasts by analysts, etc. That is, poring over more and more FA-based information beyond the dry numbers of FA indices. For example, by taking a certain number of financial analytics sources and analyzing for the correspondence of forecasts and analyses to reality, to reveal the most significant sources or just statistically to reveal the most important analyses-forecasts. This is a simplified version of using AI. That is, not to make complex analyses and forecasts in the program, but to pull values and trends from the FA-forecasts text. Uncomplicated linguistic attachments, text parsers and searching for numbers and names in the analysis, I think, could allow this to be done. But this is the next version of this system.

 
Maybe someone knows a site with a good reputation and more news history than forexfactory.
It's just that at the moment I'm going to write a news history grabber and make a reference book based on it.
And it would be desirable to determine the site at once, so as not to waste time.
I think you should first get the material to work with and then draw conclusions about whether you can and should write an EA or not.
 
kch:
kailex:
kch:
kailex:

I have an idea to develop an EA (or a separate indicator) that displays general market sentiment according to fundamental analysis indicators...

I have already downloaded it into my article, and it has already been tested.

Mr. kailex, what do you need it for?

Or do you think that you can write a profitable Expert Advisor based on these indices and FAs?

I think so. It's just that all EAs based on TA alone lack, in my opinion, a link to reality. I don't think TA's postulate is very good - the price chart takes into account everything. It certainly does, but it doesn't give a full-fledged opportunity to predict and follow the price. If the price falls somewhere because of some economic factors, no indicators will help. Of course, the principles of MM and competently placed stop-losses will save from a collapse, but in the end most systems work at breakeven level or minimum profit. In general, if you think about FA is the cause, price changes and charts are the consequence. And if we know at least to some extent the cause, we can better navigate the consequences.
If you want to create an EA for d/w trading using FAs, you might be right.
I think that even if you guess the value of an index or news (like interest rate changes or the US unemployment rate), it won't help you, because the market may react differently to this news or not react at all.

The single value of the index is of course of little importance. For analysis there should be all available indices and data about prices of different currencies.
 
ShestkoFF:
Maybe someone knows a site with a good reputation and more news history than forexfactory.
It's just that at the moment I'm going to write a news history grabber and make a reference book based on it.
And it would be desirable to determine the site at once, so as not to waste time.
I think you should first get the material to work with and then draw conclusions about whether you can and should write an EA or not.

Yes, I agree with you there. The most important thing now is to get a reliable source of information with the most complete history.
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