Global recession over the end of Moore's Law - page 8
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It's really hard to write efficient programs on GPUs.
In fact, there is still a whole untapped area in terms of interaction between devices and between devices and humans.
There is the area of clouds, stuffing everything and everyone into them, decentralization
There is the area of intelligent assistants and devices in general.
There is the area of augmented and virtual reality.
In short, it is because of Moore's law that there will be no recession; there will be a search for new ways of development. There will be a recession for another reason
That is for sure. There will be smart things, industrial internet, DNA programming, and a bunch of other new trends.
As for parallel programming, I don't understand why we don't think of already existing effective parallelization of threads which doesn't require much effort from an application programmer? Even if you take MT5, cores are used effectively. Even if there are not thousands of cores in a CPU but a few, we can still feel the speedup of a PC due to it.
There is no melancholy, there is fear for the future, both my own and others. Of course it is so easy to live when you trust scientists that they will find a solution to a problem, a new technology, a cure for cancer, or a solution to global warming. The end of Moore's Law is quite relevant. Read recent articles on the subject. My view may be pessimistic, but it is based on a deep knowledge of semiconductor technology and the latest research in the field by virtue of my specialty. It takes about 10 years to bring a new technology to mass production, and so far no such technology has appeared in the laboratories of companies or universities. So I expect 5-10 years of stagnation, maybe even longer, in computer technology.
Fear for the future of humanity, just because processors will stop increasing power at the same rate as before? What happens when that happens? Won't they add a glow-in-the-windows effect to the new wind-up, as someone here has already joked? )
And what does this have to do with faith in scientists? I was saying that if there is a problem, there are resources to solve it. And the solution itself can be on a completely different plane. And it works on any scale - in an individual situation, in a person's life and in the fate of humanity. But here the problem is sucked out of thin air, so the solution is not visible.
I really do not understand. More like a fear for their own future as a specialist in the field.
Fear for the future of humanity, just because processors will stop increasing power at the same rate as before? What happens when that happens? Won't they add a glow-in-the-windows effect to the new wind-up, as someone here has already joked? )
And what does this have to do with believing in scientists? I was saying that if there is a problem, there are resources to solve it. And the solution itself can be on an entirely different plane. And it works on any scale - in an individual situation, in a person's life and in the fate of humanity. But here the problem is sucked out of thin air, so the solution is not visible.
I really do not understand. It is more like a fear for your own future as an expert in the field.
The problem is not a cut and dried one. I am not a cook reading popular articles on electronics in my spare time, but an expert in the field with 30 years of experience, whose main task is to find a solution to the end of Moore's Law. Re-read my posts in this thread. I am not claiming that the end of humanity will come because of the end of Moore's law. I am arguing that there will be a global recession in the 2020s due to a decline in sales of laptops, tablets and smartphones. The reason for this decline in consumer iron sales (servers are not one of them) will be the end of two evolutions:
1. reducing the size and power consumption of transistors, and
2. increasing the speed at which tablets and smartphones can connect to the network (data rate)
The resources to find and the solution itself (the new technical revolution) will be found, I am sure of it. But it is too late to avoid stagnation and recession as the solution must exist today to be implemented in 10 years time.
Stages of technological revolutions have always been accompanied by stages of stagnation in the technological development of mankind. The first industrial technological revolution took place in 1780-1840, with the introduction of the steam engine and the railways. The second industrial revolution took place in 1870 - 1920 with the introduction of electricity and the internal combustion engine. The third revolution took place in the 1960s and today with the development of jet engines (rockets), computers, mobile backgrounds and the internet. It is my contention that this 3rd revolution will end in the 2020s. God only knows how long the stagnation will last before the 4th revolution starts. Although it is interesting to note that previous industrial-technological revolutions lasted 50-60 years and stagnation lasted 30-40 years. The new 4th revolution will most likely be based on robots and manipulation of human genetic code. It should also affect means of transportation. We have not yet progressed beyond the jet engine, and the revolutionary new engine has not yet been invented, nor has the revolutionary new computer.
The problem is not one that has been picked up out of thin air. I tell you this not as a cook who reads popular articles about electronics from Science and Life in his spare time, but as a specialist in this field with 30 years of experience, whose task is to find a solution to the end of Moore's Law. Re-read my posts in this thread. I am not claiming that the end of humanity will come because of the end of Moore's law. I am arguing that there will be a global recession in the 2020s due to a decline in sales of laptops, tablets and smartphones. The reason for this decline in consumer iron sales (servers are not one of them) will be the end of two evolutions:
1. reducing the size and power consumption of transistors, and
2. increasing the speed at which tablets and smartphones can connect to the network (data rate)
The resources to find and the solution itself (the new technical revolution) will be found, I am sure of it. But it is too late to avoid stagnation and recession as the solution must exist today to be implemented in 10 years time.
Stages of technological revolutions have always been accompanied by stages of stagnation in the technological development of mankind. The first industrial technological revolution took place in 1780-1840, with the introduction of the steam engine and the railways. The second industrial revolution took place in 1870 - 1920 with the introduction of electricity and the internal combustion engine. The third revolution took place in the 1960s and today with the development of jet engines (rockets), computers, mobile backgrounds and the internet. It is my contention that this 3rd revolution will end in the 2020s. God only knows how long the stagnation will last before the 4th revolution starts. Although it is interesting to note that previous industrial-technological revolutions lasted 50-60 years and stagnation lasted 30-40 years. The new 4th revolution will most likely be based on robots and manipulation of human genetic code. It should also affect means of transportation. We have not yet progressed beyond the jet engine, and the revolutionary new engine has not yet been invented, nor has the revolutionary new computer.
...
Maybe as a specialist with 30 years experience you can't see the forest behind the trees?
The following technology exists and has been around long enough that prototypes have already been developed.
I am talking about the photonic processor.
ZZY I personally read about development of photonics on a laboratory bench 10 years ago.
ZZZY By the way, there are not only logic circuits based on photonics, but also neural network architectures.
Maybe you, as a specialist with 30 years of experience, can't see the forest behind the trees?
The following technology exists and has been around long enough that prototypes have already been developed.
I am talking about the photonic processor.
ZZY I personally read about development of photonics on a laboratory bench 10 years ago.
ZZZY By the way, there are not only logic circuits based on photonics, but also neural network architectures.
Physicists create first 'atomic' hard drive >>>
В соответствии с законом Мура, эмпирическим правилом развития микроэлектроники, придуманном в 1975 году Гордоном Муром, основателем компании Intel, каждые два года число элементов в электронных устройствах удваивается, а их размеры при этом уменьшаются. Благодаря такому развитию сегодня наши "флэшки" умещают в себя сотни гигабайт информации, тогда как первые дискеты могли хранить только 160 килобайт данных и занимали намного больше места, а процессоры – в миллионы раз мощнее и содержат в себе в сотни тысяч раз больше транзисторов.
The logical end of the trend will be the development of single-atom processors and memory storage devices - their further miniaturisation will, to put it crudely, be virtually impossible, and that will be the end of Moore's Law. Sander Otte of the University of Delft in the Netherlands and his colleagues have brought us closer to this 'end of story' by creating the first 'atomic' memory device based on chlorine atoms.
Oh, I told you - it's not the law that will end, it's the action ;)
Логическим концом этой тенденции станет создание одноатомных процессоров и запоминающих устройств – их дальнейшая миниатюризация, если говорить грубо, будет фактически невозможной и на этом действие закона Мура завершится.