Deadlock - page 9

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Yuriy Asaulenko:

Well, all inventors miss that. Me too. Like, a little more, and then the perpetual motion machine will work. )

C# is for you, and maybe R and SciLab are not bad for modelling. I'm in the process of crossing MCL and C#, but very irregularly. The basic idea is laid out in my blog.

Here's the thing about predictions - the energy spectrum over a long interval. If there are ordered structures, it should come out.


What we see is silence. White noise over the entire frequency range - from low frequencies to high frequencies, and nothing more.

It's like a quantum broth in which spontaneously arises... in short, something arises :) The same Willy Feller experience with a coin (primitive to insanity, described in Bernstein's book), but indicative that the process is random, yes, but trends, series arise periodically. The market is random, but there are trends, etc. The trick is to catch the current trend and understand where it starts and where it ends, as in the example on the screenshot, using a simple concept of fractals - self-similarity and symmetry, for example. If we do not consider those Elliott Waves, but apply the real properties of fractals, then the theory itself is very good. I.e. I just found a certain centre of symmetry from which a fractal is mirrored. And other regularities that sometimes occur and can even be traded (manually, of course). And if not to trade, then at least the risk of estimating probabilities.

The only problem is that it is more art than science, because nobody will try to algorithmize all diversity of possible variants. And their spontaneous emergence.

And that is how it was bargained :)

 
Forex.Tramp:

Let's assume an entry, ALWAYS (99%) at least 1 point positive, let's assume that this is not known for sure. But 99% we are right. About what to put, everywhere at entries 1 point profit ... already tried ... 1 percent decisive role ...

After a week of trading (if you set 1 point profit at entry) it didn't work once the price moved away from the order 25 points

Oh, my first introduction to probability distributions! This is going to be a severe disappointment. If we set a profit equal to stop loss in a trade, the probability of profit winning is 50%, provided that the entry is accidental, but if you have not random entry, but after 100 trades with these parameters of profit and loss you will not make a profit, then the entry is accidental. Now, if we increase stop by 2 times the profit, then there will be 2 times more profitable trades, but remember that entry is accidental, so we end up with the same zero. If you put a profit of 1 pip and do not put a stop at all, then the probability of a profitable trade is 99.99%. But you will still lose, because in the end the loss will take all profits. No matter how you slice it, the result is 50/50, minus the spread, which you are losing. The maths is brutal and it's better to understand it now. Getting out of the 50/50 distribution is very difficult. If there were no spread, the probability of profit would be equal to the probability of loss, except that your deposit is not infinite, and therefore you would end up losing. In order to trade profitably, you need to somehow break the 50% probability, that is, find patterns of price behavior that will allow you to get out of the 50%. But these regularities will not live long, you will have to find new ones, to be constantly outside the 50% probability, you have to constantly refine your trading strategy, add regularities, remove irrelevant ones, otherwise you are lost.
 
Maxim Romanov:
Oh, first introduction to the probability distribution! This is going to be a cruel disappointment. If you open a trade with a profit equal to a stop loss, the probability of profit reversal is 50%, provided that the entry is accidental, and if your entry is not accidental, but after 100 trades with such parameters of profit and loss you do not make profit, it means that the entry is accidental. Now, if we increase stop by 2 times the profit, then there will be 2 times more profitable trades, but remember that entry is accidental, so we end up with the same zero. If you put a profit of 1 pip and do not put a stop at all, then the probability of a profitable trade is 99.99%. But you will still lose, because in the end the loss will take all profits. No matter how you slice it, the result is 50/50, minus the spread, which you are losing. The maths is brutal and it's better to understand it now. Getting out of the 50/50 distribution is very difficult. If there were no spread, the probability of profit would be equal to the probability of loss, except that your deposit is not infinite, and therefore you would end up losing. In order to trade profitably, you need to break the 50% probability in some way, that is, to find patterns of price behavior that will allow you to get out of the 50%. But these patterns will not live long, you will have to find new ones, to constantly be outside the 50%, you need to constantly refine your trading strategy, add regularities, remove patterns that do not work, otherwise you are lost.
That's what I'm writing about. If there is an entry, and on this entry the planned stop is 25pp, then the profit should be at least 50pp, and that is not enough, preferably at least 70pp, you need to enter the trade at a profit/loss ratio = 3/1 or more. If you have an entry, but the stop is large, then the chance that the price will reach the profit at three stop distances - a small, such an entry is better to skip. If you enter within a range, the stop will always be large, as well as the chance of its frequent triggering. You should be very smart to have a system with 50/50 profitability. With take/stop=3/1 it will bring you a stable income, while with take/stop=2/1 it will lead to a loss. If you make entries with small stops on hai and lots, the chance that the position will roll over the stop is much smaller than making an entry within the range, it also increases the chance that the transaction will go in your direction with a profit of 4-6 times the distance of the stop. In this case, you do not even need to have a 50/50 system, but rather only 30/70, with 3 losses, one profitable one will cover the loss and give profit. And we do not need to know where the price will go. And all that is associated with entries of stop=>25 pips, while take=<5 pips --- let's burn it, it will not survive in the market! Well, if the entries are of very high quality and you're only interested in a profit of 1pp, then you should probably trade binary options ))))
 
Forex.Tramp:

It's all philosophy of course.... but basically we have 3 meanings.

1.The market will go up

2.The market will go down.

3.We don't know where it's going to go.

And we probably know the 3rd point.... and if so the other two have an equal chance.

In a word, a deadlock.
 
Speculator:
In a word a deadlock.

And the way out of the impasse is known to the author of the topic himself. If we accept that

Forex.Tramp:

3. We don't know where he'll go.

And we probably know point 3.... and if so, the other two have an equal chance.

So this is the way out, it remains to be accepted as a medical fact. This eliminates the need for meditation and guessing on charts and frees up a lot of time. The only thing that's left is to learn how to work on the market, the cat is not sure where it's going to go.

In fact, nobody cares where the market will go, but all at the same time they want it to go where the arrow is pointing. Isn't that a strange combination?

 
Yuriy Asaulenko:

And the way out of the impasse is known by the author of the thread himself. If you accept that

So this is the way out, it remains to be accepted as a medical fact. This eliminates the need for meditation and guessing on charts, and frees up a lot of time. What's left is to learn how to work in the market, the cat is not sure where it's going to go.

In fact, nobody cares where the market will go, but all at the same time they want it to go where the arrow is pointing. Isn't that a strange combination?

Right, because there are only two players in the market: the buyer and the seller, there is no third.

For TC:

Trading from levels is justified statistically and has a high mathematical expectation.

Levels from which strong moves begin are local lows and highs of the point. When price approaches a level and we see that it does not move further, it gives us an opportunity to put a stop behind that level. If the issuer does not retrace after a strong move up, but begins to consolidate near the level, it means that it is likely to go further up.

Levels passing through extreme points and false breaks are good because there is a clear and understandable stop that can be attached to the level. With the correct level definition we always get a clear entry point, a clear stop and we can see the margin to the next level.

We should be very careful when observing candle "tails" near key levels. The closing level is the most important daily level, and if the market closes without crossing the key level, it may very likely be a false-break. It is not uncommon for price to test or try to break it in one sharp move, but the daily bar closes without breaking through, making a false-break. If the market fails to break through a strong support or resistance level, it may cause a significant correction or even change in the current trend.

In practice, levels are well applied to any financial markets (FOREX, NYSE, FORTS, MICEX) and to any instruments: (stocks, gold, forex, oil, natural gas, etc.) because there are only two players: a buyer and a seller.

May the moderator forgive me, I will post a link to the full third-party resource, well very informative material

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