Gorgeous Uncle Martin Gale - The Thorny Road to Millions or Total Collapse ! - page 6

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khorosh:
That's what I illustrated by your statement.

The above case was pointed out to you when a martin lost money.

Yes, of course, in hindsight you can now say that "you have to service the martin by withdrawing profits" - but if you withdraw profits, then what do you work on? And where does one get the money to continue trading from, other than by pouring in what is withdrawn ?

That's what I'm saying - one trade will be taken out by a martin with a high probability. A dozen is doubtful. Trading all the time - no.

As for the deposit, do not forget that I've already written that I see no difference: 1 account with an initial deposit of 1000 quid or 10 accounts of 100 quid. I am quite satisfied with MT4 tester, after successful testing I start it immediately on cent account, I don't use demo.

The MT4 tester is just not accurate enough compared to MT5 (which also simulates the real account not accurate enough).

And the account size says only about the degree of your trust in your EA. If it is small, it means that you understand that the EA is highly unreliable and will easily lose a large sum.

 
George Merts:

Yes, of course, with a "hindsight" one can now say that "martin must be served by withdrawing profits" - but if one withdraws profits, then what is one to work with ? And where does one get the money to continue trading from other than pouring in what is withdrawn ?

The problem is that in MT4 you cannot simulate depositing and withdrawal. I just want to mathematically calculate the performance of a trade with partial withdrawals.
 
-Aleks-:
The problem is that in MT4 you can't simulate withdrawals and deposits. I just want to mathematically calculate the performance of a partial withdrawal trade.
You can simulate it, I have a function somewhere. I don't remember which one. If I find it I'll send it to you. I do not see the need in it. The simple task of testing is to obtain the maximal drawdown within the reserve less than the initial deposit. This should be taken into account when choosing the optimization results.
 
George Merts:

The above case was pointed out to you when a martin lost money.

Yes, of course, in hindsight you can now say that "you have to service the martin by withdrawing profits" - but if you withdraw profits, then what do you work on? And where does one get the money to continue trading from, other than by pouring in what is withdrawn ?

That's what I'm saying - one trade will be taken out by a martin with a high probability. A dozen is doubtful. Trading all the time is not.

The MT4 tester is simply not accurate enough compared to MT5 (which also does not simulate real time accurately enough).

The account size only indicates the degree of your trust in your Expert Advisor. If it is small, it means that you understand that the Expert Advisor is highly unreliable, and it will easily lose a large sum.

I don't care if 1000 Expert Advisors sell out. This is not proof if there is at least one Expert Advisor that stably earns money. My EA has earned profit where my EA on EUR has lost.

You cannot be 100% sure in any Expert Advisor, because there is no Expert Advisor that would work in profit forever and would not require over-optimization or algorithm correction.

 

99% of traders are guaranteed to lose their deposit (all their deposits) - this is a known statistic and no one is hiding it.

Some lose every month, some once a year, some less often, some more often.

Bottom line: "And who are the judges?"

How can the 99%, guaranteed to lose their deposits, judge whether martin is good or bad?

There is only one judge -- the end result.

And it does not matter how this result is achieved. The one with a low risk of 2% per transaction is a year of losing a deposit of $ 1000, or the other one with a super-high risk. Or with super-high risks, it is losing a deposit of 100 dollars for 1-2 months.

The loss of the deposit does not mean anything. Not everyone has a deposit of all his traded capital. And maybe the one who trades on margin, for him the deposit is just 2% of his traded capital. And he strictly adheres to all recommendations of money management.

Only the final result is a judge, a teacher, a friend and an advisor.

All the rest and all the others -- advice, counselors, smart guys, experts, analysts -- are all bullshit and their opinion is insignificant.

 
Andrey F. Zelinsky:

99% of traders are guaranteed to lose their deposit (all their deposits) - this is a known statistic and no one is hiding it.

Some lose every month, some once a year, some less often, some more often.

Bottom line: "And who are the judges?"

How can the 99%, guaranteed to lose their deposits, judge whether martin is good or bad?

There is only one judge -- the end result.

And it does not matter how this result is achieved. The one with a low risk of 2% per transaction is a year of losing a deposit of $ 1000, or the other one with a super-high risk. Or with super-high risks, it is losing a deposit of 100 dollars for 1-2 months.

The loss of the deposit does not mean anything. Not everyone has a deposit of all his traded capital. And maybe the one who trades on margin, for him the deposit is just 2% of his traded capital. And he strictly adheres to all recommendations of money management.

Only the final result is a judge, a teacher, a friend and an advisor.

All the rest and all the others -- advice, counselors, smart guys, experts, analysts -- are all bullshit and their opinion is insignificant.

Quite right. Practice is the criterion of truth.
 
khorosh:

I don't care if there are 1,000 experts. This is not proof if there is at least one Expert Advisor that consistently earns money. Where his EA lost on the EuR, mine made a profit.

You cannot be 100% sure in any Expert Advisor, because there is no Expert Advisor that would work in profit forever and would not require over-optimization or algorithm correction.

The fact is that the maximum drawdown can be reached once a year, while the rest of the time the drawdown will be more than two or three times less. Thus, knowing the average drawdown, one can increase the risks. Thus, it is necessary to calculate the amount of risk increase at guaranteed drawdown in a certain (conditional once a year) point of time. What should be the output, so to speak...
 
-Aleks-:
The fact is that the maximum drawdown can be reached once a year, with the rest of the time there will be drawdowns of more than two or three times less. So knowing the average drawdown you can increase the risks. Thus, it is necessary to calculate the amount of risk increase at guaranteed drawdown in a certain (conditional once a year) point of time. What should be the payoff, so to speak...
You can, but I prefer not to do it. The quieter the ride, the farther you travel.)))
 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and trading strategy testing

Great Uncle Martin Gale - The thorny path to millions or total downfall !

Andrey F. Zelinsky, 2015.09.16 10:38

99% of traders are guaranteed to lose their deposit (all their deposits) - this is a known statistic and no one is hiding it.

Some lose every month, some once a year, some less often, some more often.

Bottom line: "And who are the judges?"

How can the 99%, guaranteed to lose their deposits, judge whether martin is good or bad?

There is only one judge -- the end result.

And it does not matter how this result is achieved. The one with a low risk of 2% per transaction is a year of losing a deposit of $ 1000, or the other one with a super-high risk. Or with super-high risks, it is losing a deposit of 100 dollars for 1-2 months.

A loss of the deposit does not mean anything. Not everyone has a deposit of all his traded capital. And maybe the one who trades on margin, for him the deposit is just 2% of his traded capital. And he strictly adheres to all recommendations of money management.

Only the final result is a judge, a teacher, a friend and an advisor.

All the rest and all the rest -- advices, counselors, smart guys, experts, analysts -- it is all bullshit and their opinion is insignificant.

I TOTALLY AGREE WITH THESE GUYS.

 

All right, all right, go for it.

Don't forget a deposit of at least $1000 (since we trust martingale so much) and monitoring.

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