D1 price is on primary bullish with the secondary ranging market condition:
is on primary bearish with secondary flat since the December last year.
is on bearish market condition with secondary ranging: price is located inside Ichimoku cloud/kumo since the October last year after good breakdown
If D1 price will break 0.7678 support level so we may see the bearish market conditionIf D1 price will break 0.7889 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuingIf not so we can see the total ranging within the primary bullish and the primary bearish
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on NZDUSD price movement for this coming week)
2015-01-19 21:00 GMT (or 23:00 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - NZIER Business Confidence]
2015-01-20 02:00 GMT (or 04:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - GDP]
2015-01-20 15:00 GMT (or 17:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - FOMC Member Powell Speech]
2015-01-20 21:45 GMT (or 23:45 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - CPI]
2015-01-21 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Building Permits]
2015-01-21 21:30 GMT (or 23:30 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - Performance of Manufacturing Index]
2015-01-22 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Unemployment Claims]
2015-01-23 01:45 GMT (or 03:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HSBC Manufacturing PMI]
Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on NZDUSD price movement
SUMMARY : bullish/bearishTREND : ranging
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2015.01.16 17:06
Forex Weekly Outlook January 19-23 (based on forexcrunch article)
German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Inflation data in New Zealand, Rate
decision in Japan, the Eurozone and Canada, Employment data from the UK
and the US and housing data from the US. These are the main market
movers on Forex calendar. Join us as we explore the highlights of this
Last week, US data failed to raise optimism with a surprise 0.9% drop
in retail sales registering their largest decline in 11 months and a
1.0% decline in core sales. In the manufacturing sector the Philly Fed
index fell to 6.3 points, while expected to reach 20.3 points. Jobless
claims increased unexpectedly to 316,000 from 297,000 crossing to
300,000 line. However, the Empire State index surged to 10 points from
5.3 in the prior month. Will we see better figures this week?
newdigital, 2015.01.19 19:30
NZD/USD almost unchanged in cautious trade
The New Zealand dollar was almost unchanged
against its U.S. counterpart in cautious trade on Monday, as
markets were still jittery after the Swiss National Bank's surprise
policy move last week.
NZD/USD hit 0.7806 during early European trade, the session
high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7796.
The pair was likely to find support at 0.7744, the low of
January 16 and resistance at 0.789, the high of January 16.
newdigital, 2015.01.20 08:42
if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
[NZD - NZIER Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, retailers, and service providers. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly
to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early
signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and
Asian Session Forex Recap – Jan. 20, 2015
newdigital, 2015.01.20 15:20
NZD/USD drops despite strong N.Z. business confidence data (based on nasdaq article)
The New Zealand dollar dropped against its U.S.
counterpart on Tuesday, despite the release of strong business
confidence from New Zealand, as downbeat Chinese economic growth
NZD/USD hit 0.7709 during late Asian trade, the pair's lowest
since January 15; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7723,
The pair was likely to find support at 0.7688, the low of
January 14 and resistance at 0.7810, Monday's high.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
NZDUSD, D1, 2015.01.20
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
newdigital, 2015.01.20 20:47
NZD/USD 0.7600 Support at Risk on Dismal 4Q New Zealand CPI (based on dailyfx article)
newdigital, 2015.01.21 07:34
[NZD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation
is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the
central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation
New Zealand Consumer Prices Dip 0.2% In Q4
Consumer prices in New Zealand eased 0.2 percent on quarter in the
fourth quarter of 2014, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday.
That missed expectations for a flat reading following three straight quarters of 0.3 percent gain.
prices for petrol and vegetables were partly countered by higher prices
for international travel and housing-related costs," prices manager
Chris Pike said.
Petrol prices (down 5.7 percent) made the largest
downward contribution. Excluding petrol, inflation added 0.1 percent in
The average price of a liter of 91 octane petrol in
Q4 was NZ$2.00, compared with NZ$2.12 in the previous quarter. By the
end of the December quarter, petrol pump prices were 7 percent below the
average price for the quarter, and as at 16 January were 17 percent
below the average for the quarter.
Seasonally lower prices for
tomatoes, lettuce, and cucumber influenced the fall in vegetable prices
(down 14 percent) - which was a smaller-than-usual December quarter fall
following a mild winter. Vegetable prices are now slightly higher than a
Prices for newly built houses excluding land climbed
1.7 percent overall, with Auckland up 2.8 percent and Canterbury up 1.7
percent. Housing rentals added 0.3 percent overall, with Canterbury up
NZDUSD, M5, 2015.01.21
NZDUSD M5: 48 pips price movement by NZD - CPI news event
newdigital, 2015.01.21 14:02
NZD/USD rises off 2-week lows despite weak N.Z. inflation data (based on nasdaq article)
The New Zealand dollar rose against its U.S.
counterpart on Wednesday, pulling away from two-week lows despite
the release of disappointing New Zealand inflation data.
NZD/USD hit 0.7783 during late Asian trade, the session high;
the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7667, gaining 0.35%.
The pair was likely to find support at 0.7620, Tuesday's low and
a two-week low and resistance at 0.7781, the high of January
newdigital, 2015.01.21 22:24
Daily Forex Market Update: NZD/USD Signaling Long (based on forexmagnates article)
trading saw the Euro, Pound, Kiwi and Dollar indexes all sell off. The
Aussie and Swiss remain relatively flat. From a macro perspective I
still like the Kiwi for a cyclical move higher. The Aussie, Euro, Pound
and Dollar are also signaling cyclical moves higher but their price
action is much more neutral which impacts the risk profile. I’d prefer
to see them at a more substantial support level than they are right now.
The Pre-Trade Matrix has 14 regression signals, seven of those have
cyclical support, only the NZD/USD isn’t displaying counter momentum as
we head into the US Session. That pair is currently signaling long.
The GBP/JPY and the NZD/CAD were closed in the Asian session for a loss
of just over half a percent. The NZD never really went anywhere but the
Pound did retrace and eventually came to an adjusted support zone,
which, by that time, was into negative territory. This morning I’ve
entered the long NZD/USD and will let this grind a while and evaluate
again this evening.
newdigital, 2015.01.22 08:01
if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[NZD - Performance of Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers. Survey of manufacturers which asks respondents to rate the relative
level of business conditions including employment, production, new
orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
"The seasonally adjusted PMI for December was 57.7(a PMI
reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is generally expanding;
below 50.0 that it is declining). This was 2.1 points higher than
November, and a positive end to the year for the sector."
BNZ senior economist Doug Steel said, "The PMI results for manufacturing
are consistent with broader indicators showing that the economy is in
good heart. There is a lot to like with activity expanding at a solid
clip with no inflation."
NZDUSD, M5, 2015.01.22
NZDUSD M5: 11 pips price movement by NZD - Performance of Manufacturing Index news event
newdigital, 2015.01.22 08:40
Kiwi To Fall In Line? (based on dailyfx article)
The NZD/USD daily chart is beginning to look interesting again. Over the
past few months while other developed market currencies have been in a
virtual free fall against the Greenback, NZD/USD has held its own and
traded in a fairly well defined range. With the exchange rate testing
the bottom end of the range today we can’t help but wonder if the Bird
is about to fall in line with the rest of the currency world? We say
this mostly because of the sentiment picture. This outperformance by the
Kiwi over the past few months has seen sentiment towards NZD rise well
above 50% bulls on the DSI when most other currencies are sporting
bullish sentiment levels closer to 10%. In our view this neutral
sentiment profile makes the Kiwi much more vulnerable to a decent move
lower if the range lows break as there will be plenty of “fuel” for the
decline. The .7607 December low looks key with weakness below needed to
trigger this negative scenario.