a trading strategy based on Elliott Wave Theory - page 56
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Vladislav 13.03.06 10:50
You will be able to find answers to your questions.
You will be able to find answers to your questions.
They are not there. On the contrary, for example:
"That is, within this problem there is only the notion of a "trend" and it is not defined in the usual way by everyone, but only quantitatively, i.e. a trend is an excess of probability of movement to one side, as a consequence - the presence of possibility of non-accidental prediction ;)"
Confirms the attempt to always find a trend, even when there isn't one.
Regarding Murray - it's just that he's not bad at defining levels and it seems to be part of a more global approach.
What is essential is that combinations are selected which give non-random results. I think this is the key point. Apparently I did not find in the description how robustness of these combinations is calculated. Because they have given positive results on history? If it is the only criterion, it is not. Probably, we analyse the equity of each individual combination as to the stationarity of the results. If so, then the main one is the criterion for determining that the combination gives a stationary distribution with positive MO.
P.S. I'm not trying to discredit the method of vs. Vlasslava, but I want to pay attention to a fundamental essence - why the offered method should work, where it should work, how to apply this method. IMHO, if you don't understand what makes it possible to take money from other speculators, the probability of falling into a fit is critically high.
Try reading page 9 of the post.
Vladislav 05.04.06 11:56
Maybe it will help?
By the way, it would be nice for everyone to get acquainted with your trading system based on the postulate that
Please, tell me more about it. It would be of great interest to everyone.
Would it help?
I agree with a lot of things and disagree with a lot of things (especially about an ideal manager). But all of this is irrelevant to the essence of the method.
I've read the whole thread, but thank you for pointing out the posts precisely.
By the way, it would be nice for everyone to get acquainted with your trading system based on the postulate that
Tell us about it in more detail. It would be of great interest to everyone.
MP different ranges. Read more e.g. http://forex. kbpauk.ru/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=trading&Number=88231&page=0&fpart=1
Why am I writing here, because IMHO, the methods are somewhat similar, but at the same time opposite in meaning.
Actually I calculated it this way too at first sight, but after a week of watching the charts with channels, Murray lines and average probability on each line, I understood that I was missing a lot of good moments for entering, because according to "my scheme Limits are set on Murray lines with not less than 80% probability and such probability have lines that are in the zone of 80-99% of the largest channel with length not less than 2-3 weeks that thus forces us to enter the market 3-4 times a month (and also there is no need to search for smaller channels) so at least for "my scheme" we should make revision of probability taken from different channels.
In other words when probability of a large channel is less than a certain value then its contribution may not be taken into account or non-linear weighting coefficients may be used...
Indeed it does. This system is designed for mid-term trading. Although I have plans to try it on pipsing intraday trading as well. I will let you know how I will try it.
Why I am writing here, because IMHO, the techniques are similar in some way, but at the same time opposite in meaning.
I would also like to know about any experimental data on what is described in this thread. Are there any results of the expert and does it exist or this MP system is just an aid in intuitive manual trading like most other indicators? Also I would just like to hear a clear description of the tactics of entering/exiting the market with this system. Maybe this description is present in some veiled form in that thread, but I just missed it because of the large amount of talk on general topics? Then I apologize, but in any case, a clear statement of the problem and the methodology of its solution will be a starting point for a useful discussion in this thread, otherwise the conversations on general topics will be of no use to anyone anyway.
Почему здесь пишу, потому что ИМХО, методики чем-то похожи, но одновременно противоположны по смыслу.
I would also like to know about any experimental data on what is described in this thread. Are the results of this expert available or does this MP system just help in intuitive manual trading like most other indicators? Also I would just like to hear a clear description of the tactics of entering/exiting the market with this system. Maybe this description is present in some veiled form in that thread, but I just missed it because of the large amount of talk on general topics? Then I apologize, but in any case, a clear statement of the problem and the methodology of its solution will be a starting point for a useful discussion in this thread, otherwise the conversations on general topics will be of no use to anyone anyway.
You want to be given not an approach, but a clear system of inputs and outputs, together with MM? Will it be of any use? I do not believe in the existence of a system that gives consistent results in any market/instrument at any time. MP and VP, this is a different view of the market, different methods can be built on it, but there is no universal one. Even for one instrument on different TF different methods will work quite differently. IMHO, this is true for any method including Vladislav's. As they say - the devil is in the details. Therefore, before we start talking about experimental data and specific signals, we need to understand the fundamental characteristics of the approach itself, its limitations, weaknesses and strengths, and its applicability to a certain market or instrument. Otherwise, the numbers hide the essence. Therefore, specifics and implementation are everyone's business, although approaches may be common. As for approaches, I have several based on MP. For example one of them is singling out typical MP patterns by dividing it into quantiles and searching for stable developments of situations on the history. But I propose to deal with the idea of methods, their market essence, and since this thread is discussing Vladislav's method, I will concentrate on it. So my opinion about this method is:
1. Murray levels automate and systematize the construction of Fibo levels and Fibo levels are optimal phases of equilibrium price search by the market. Indeed, when the range is divided by 8, we hit the levels 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%. But there is also an unpleasant aspect - rounding and, above all, a fixed parameter at which the MAX and MIN are taken. After all, IMHO, the whole idea is to take the current valid range and find levels on it. Firstly, there are many valid ranges, secondly, the fix. parameter makes the numbering almost random. But it is not the time of range formation that is a fix value. This parameter shall be adaptive, then the numbering will make sense.
2. we are looking for channels or quadratic functions that approximate the trend quite well. This question is very controversial, but let's assume these are the most accurate functions that describe development of a trend in time, and approximation errors are rather small. But this raises a question: which channels are real and which are due to chance, which channels and how many to take into account. This is the most critical issue and without solving it properly, all this will be guessing by coffee grounds. Generally speaking, a trend is a part where the price series is persistent, and a flat is antipersistent, these phases alternate. These segments should not be mixed up, even if they together fit quite well into the channel. A flat of an appropriate level - kills the previous trend. The new trend does not depend on the previous one (or it happens to do so). Therefore, IMHO, channels should be as in the classics - momentum - correction - momentum -... without flat areas inside them. Perhaps the number of impulses and corrections is significant, for example as in Adverse - t touches to the channel are considered.
All of the above is IMHO, of course.