Do we need to follow the trend?

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We were having a conversation about following a trend. Opponents were spitting that a trend cannot just change, that it should be followed and if it goes against you it is only a drawdown, that it will pass soon and we should use Limits or Marquets as it is growing.

To continue the discussion and to make a separate thread on the subject I will give an example of gold:

log in

So, let us move back to the year 2011. Up to September 2011 we had a steady upward trend. So, as stated by the opponents, we should have entered by buying at the point represented by the arrow. Suppose we did and "went in position" on the gold ... I think there is no point in going any further :-D
 
you can follow it, you can not follow it, what difference does it make?

are you in the bargain now?
 
IvanIvanov:
можно следовать, можно не следовать, какая разница то?
IvanIvanov:
You can follow it, you can not follow it, what difference does it make?
Judging by the claims of books, pseudo-science and some forum members, you have to follow it and make sure it continues, because it can't just change. If you go against it, you're probably going to lose.

i'm not in the bargain. it's more of a fundamental question.
 
mmmoguschiy:

I'm not in the bargain. It's more of a fundamental question.
you mean theoretical?
 
IvanIvanov:
What do you mean by theoretical?
technical :-D
 
Doing one:

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avtomat, 2015.02.10 09:27

What's God got to do with it... You just need to think a little bit about what your phrase"the trend has this interesting feature - it can change direction at any time!!!! " -- I mean, just like that... at any moment... without any indication... without any indication of a trend change.... Is that it?

If so, it's utter nonsense. You just need to get clear on what is a trend and what is not a trend.


 
let's make it two:

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mmmoguschiy, 2015.02.10 09:52

How can I explain it to you...? Take the franc - today it is the brightest example of "at any time" and so on and so forth. It was a trend - it was calmly moving in a channel. And then comes the 15th. Have you been in a trend? Apparently not, otherwise you would not have asked such questions in confusion! Was it expected? Were there any preconditions? I guess so, but it's easy to judge all this only after the above events.

What does God have to do with it? They say he knows everything ahead of time.

It's like you're five years old and you're a geek!!!

Well if that's the case go on - 2nd grade high school curriculum for traders. There is such a thing as Hearst. This is volatility. That is, there are instruments with this Hurst higher than 0.5 and we can say that growth in the past means growth in the future, or in your words "the trend cannot change". In the other case we have quite the opposite situation - we have some instability of the instrument - its direction can change at any moment. What exactly the preconditions are contributing to it is a different question. If we take a purely technical analysis.

And finally, the trend is measured in a certain period of time. Say, on the hour chart we have chaos or uncertainty, but if we look at, say, the daily chart we can see a more pronounced trend.

Yes, in order to follow the trend you need to understand clearly what it is and know all the conditions for its possible change of direction. It seems that for you it's like sending two bytes? You are always "in the trend", you have never lost your deposit and you have a 100% profitable trades? Well, in that case my respect!
That's the thing about forex trading, everybody knows it, but how come at least 90% manage to lose...?

 

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avtomat, 2015.02.10 10:13

The franc situation is more correctly seen in the context of force majeure rather than trend parsing.

You are overdoing it with Hearst (or you are being overdoing it).

Here is your phrase :"Well finally the trend is measured in a specific time frame. Let's say we have chaos or uncertainty on the hourly chart, but if we look at, say, the daily chart we can see a more distinct trend."It indicates that you don't know what the trend is.

And this understanding comes, among other things, through the lost deposits.


 

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Globtroter, 2015.02.11 19:40

You are talking about time intervals (minutes, hours, day, week, month).
There, yes, the trend can go in different directions at the same time.
However, it is worth remembering that all these "internal" trends are INSIDE the main trend.
For example, the US is now seeing QE being rolled back and transitioning to tighter monetary policy.
At the same time most other countries are easing their monetary policy.

Inverse correlation.
Which in turn causes a trend. A major one. A global one.
Such trends don't change out of the blue.
For example, if we learn at one of the Fed meetings that they will wait to raise rates, it does not mean that the trend has changed.
Although there may be a pullback (correction).
But the trend itself will not change.
That's the way it is.

P.S. And I am completely silent about scalpers... For them, trends and tendencies do not exist.


 

a stop lol. And then what do you think?If something bad canhappen, it happens - Murphy's Law. The trend changes its direction literally after we entered. We look at Masha - she's pointing down. That's when we remember we have a silly girl :-D But it's too late! The trend has changed and Masha, like the giraffe in the joke, will realize it only in a week!

Let's move on. Let's remember that there is a "global trend". And the trend is also going down. We remove the stop and "take a pose" (I do not like this expression) :-D And what do you think will happen? Murphy's law comes to mind. Of course - the trend will reverse, contrary to all other laws, or it will wear you down until you give in. And when you give in it will go further! I'm reminded of the words of a (I don't know what to call him - let's call him affectionately) sucker, I think from Fin...ma - "well I got into a pose... I didn't think the backlash would be that big... "I've lost a few other people's flats...". It's a picture of two dudes who don't know each other:

Fuck you, you're a sucker.


And what do you think - you're better than him? The market will tear you to shreds, chew you up and spit you out, just like it spits out 90% of its participants every day!!!
What are we talking about? Ah yes - it's a thankless business "following the trend" I tell you!!! ))

And now we come to the climax of all of the above. So ask yourself a question - who are you? I think the answer is obvious - most likely you are a relatively small capital worker. And your average "deposit" in Forex is a couple of hundred dollars. Why I think I don't need to explain. I must say at once - those who put in here big money in my opinion, to put it mildly, are either liars, or I don't know - probably people who are in the picture above. Or maybe you're in a "borderline state" :-D At the moment my opinion is. The rest are trading on more real sites. So you have 200 quid and you are a "trend chaser". As we found out above the main trend is palpable on timeframes clearly above 4 o'clock. I don't know if you haven't thought about it before to my sympathy, but I think it's time for that. Ask yourself a question - if you got into a position on a pullback of the main trend on a daily chart with 200 quid (I'm not even talking about two condos in Moscow) in your pocket what are you waiting for? And I ask you to give the most honest answer to this question. I think then and only then you will finally gain understanding.

Z.U. Do not put yourself in place "stupid Masha"! :-D

With respect...


 
Ask yourself, who is the dispute with? People who have been earning money exclusively through trading for more than a year, or ...... Judging by the subject matter of the dispute, neither side is earning). The answer is simple. Of course you have to follow the trend, otherwise how can you trade?) If you know when it's going to end, trade against it, if you know it won't end, trade with the trend, it's that simple.) The trend is just an illusion, there are no trends, there are no flaps, there are fluctuations. Whether the current movement is a trend or not is a philosophical question, and the answer is possible only within a specific trading system. Without a trading system it is meaningless to argue about trends, since the current movement can be abruptly changed by the opposite one.
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