has anyone found a way to test all combinations of moving averages? - page 2
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So what you are saying is that you can't predict the future based on past data, no matter how many data you crush, but if i accept it,
so then what's the difference between trading and cassinos?
2- if it's not a cassino, how to beat the market without trying to predict the future
both questions seems like two side of one question so..
I don't like the word beat in that context. You can't beat, maybe can be beaten. Best suggestion I can find is take steps to make the odds as much as possible in your favour and hope for the best. In that context it is a kind of casino. Because just think that every body has your own mind set and every body is looking to beat the market but it can not be that everybody beats the market because where the money will come from? And the brokers should earn too on top of it :) So, at least the amount of money that people earn has to come from the amount of money that other people lost (sum zero, not one donates here). And the losers were trying to win, with same mind set. So, it is a kind of cassino. Just think that everybody would think like you and will have a supercomputer and find the best moving average for last 50 years. This alone will change the average from now on.. :)
If it was not a casino and you would find the best method, and suppose all other people own a supercomputer of their own, then everybody would come to the same winning conclusion, but that will make that winning conclusion into a sure loser because the money should come from somewhere..
It is an odds game, don't try to find the ultimate method because it's ever changing. Try to find something that gives an edge and try to leverate it.
So what you are saying is that you can't predict the future based on past data, no matter how many data you crush, but if i accept it,
so then what's the difference between trading and cassinos?
2- if it's not a cassino, how to beat the market without trying to predict the future
Nothing and nobody can predict the future.
You can move forward by simply accepting that fact.
Because then you will stop trying to predict the future.(which is impossible)
Who told you that it was necessary to predict the future, in order to make a profit ?
You are still barking up the wrong tree.
As said, move on..
Details have to be thought by you
The lower the MA the better, as it represents the price better, but in a fast moving market it becomes as good or bad as the rest, you could take into consideration a longer MA is a magnet when the price moves away, it seems to want to come back.
"please tell me the details, how to make profit without need to predict the future and also don't use arbitrage?"
You are never predicting the future, the market does this, you are only looking for direction, signs, and more importantly, where to join and where to leave, I think these are the two most important factors in trading, you take a trade, profit is quick but where do you get off, the same trade and loss is just as quick, where do you get off, find out how to manage both.
"Try to find something that gives an edge and try to leverate it."
You can only ever be 51% sure of direction, that's the edge (in my opinion) there are two ways the market is going to go, up or down, you would think it was an easy bet, tell that to those who lost thousands,the 1% above the 50 is your thoughts, your interpretation of where the market is going, if you find yourself 99% sure every time, give me a call, I will test your theory and let you know if it's right, above all, enjoy and live to trade another day.