Market prediction based on macroeconomic indicators - page 20

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Vladimir:

My translation:

"Most participants expressed the view that conditions for a rate hike have not yet been reached, although they noticed that these conditions are maturing. Participants saw that the labour market had improved since the beginning of the year, but many saw no need for further improvement.

While there are no economic conditions to raise rates, there are political conditions - pressure on Putin. The Russian economy is based on exports of energy and materials and imports of consumer goods. By making the dollar stronger, the US depresses the price of oil, gold and other materials. At the same time it raises the price of imported products for Russians. Everything becomes more expensive. There is internal pressure on domestic politics in Russia. Purely my opinion. I am not discussing or criticizing anyone.

So far we are seeing that this scenario is being implemented through a fall in the yuan-> decrease in purchasing power. Well, I wrote about it somewhere two years ago.

But no one cared about it then. Everyone was so caught up in "tales of economic growth".

 
Right now, in my view, rates are temporarily in the background and China is becoming the main driver (for the main pair). In a while, if the Chinese crisis worsens and spreads around the world (which is highly probable), the money will run to the US treasury securities. If the Chinese somehow, somehow, someway or other, manage to resolve the situation the US rates will once again become the focus of the market.
 
Alexander Laur:

I don't think that the basis of all these actions on the part of the states is to pressure Russia and Putin. Yes, Russia's economy is resource-based, but the states have allies whose economies are also resource-based, such as Saudi Arabia. They (the allies) are suffering too. Low oil prices are also hitting American companies. Europe does not know what to do with refugees from the Middle East. We need to solve the Middle East problem or Europe will collapse. I don't think Putin and Russia are worthy of causing such a bacchanalia in the world. One gets the impression that the states just don't know what to do, which is why they chose to attack Putin. But criticizing Putin and Russia will not make the problems go away on its own. Russia will endure and survive this bedlam. The states' hopes for a revolution within Russia are illusory, but they may lose their allies.

oh,where the hell am i.... and what does this have to do with betting?

You are an optimist) The scenario is as follows. Saudis benefit from kicking competitors off the market, the cost of their oil is the lowest. They can tolerate for a long time.

If the confrontation continues, then gradually Russian sales will be handed over to Iran and we will be banned from selling at all. Plus don't forget about Iraq.

As for the US oil companies, I would suggest that their supply is hedged with short futures positions to the longest contracts. So if they're hedged at around 100,

then they don't care about the drop at all. The question is whether they had enough futures market capacity on this case.

P.S. Let your Pavlik out already) Let's hear what he visits here

 
Alexander Laur:

Iran with its gas and oil is strong. But why did we pull them out of the sanctions? If we can be so badly hampered by it. With Iran it is not clear, it is quite possible that we have a tacit agreement with them.

Maybe you've thought about it too, that maybe it's not that simple. Or maybe even simpler, we like to give money to everyone, just not our own. Only then they are betrayed and history does not teach them anything.

I did not want to write about Pavlik).

 
Vladimir:

While there are no economic conditions to raise rates, there are political conditions - pressure on Putin. The Russian economy is based on exports of energy and materials and imports of consumer goods. By making the dollar stronger, the US depresses the price of oil, gold and other materials. At the same time it raises the price of imported products for Russians. Everything becomes more expensive. There is internal pressure on domestic politics in Russia. Purely my opinion. I am not discussing or criticizing anyone.

That is what I had in mind when I said "we must", only I didn't want to turn the conversation into politics. Any changes, if you start looking at them in relation to other points of reference, can be positive, not negative, and vice versa. So if a factor is fundamentally bad for America, it could be even worse for the rest of the world, and America stands to gain. It has been using such tactics for quite some time now, and it has essentially no real allies (whom it would not harm) - for example, it is willing to put Europe down as well for its own benefit.
 
The market is behaving irrationally. First traders were worried about a possible rate hike in the US. Now a 180 degree turn, worried about a global slowdown, the Chinese economy. There is no reason for the market to fall. The US economy is moving in the right direction. If my model is right, we should expect a super rally in the S&P500.
 
Vladimir:
The market is behaving irrationally. First traders were worried about a possible rate hike in the US. Now a 180 degree turn, worried about a global slowdown, the Chinese economy. There is no reason for the market to fall. The US economy is moving in the right direction. If my model is right, we should expect a super rally in the S&P500.
A super rally is the SP500 falling 8% in four days?
 

It is unrealistic to predict the market based on news.

Pruf. I don't trade using news, I'm not alone.

 
Дмитрий:
A superrally is the SP500 down 8% in four days?
I predict the future, not the past. And quarterly movements, not weekly movements. Daily, weekly and even monthly movements are noise. Even in white noise there are strong outliers. Concentrating on them, studying them and drawing conclusions about trend changes is nonsense. The S&P500 will be making new tops in late September.
 
Vladimir:
I predict the future, not the past. And quarterly movements, not weekly movements. Daily, weekly and even monthly movements are noise. Even in white noise there are strong outliers. Concentrating on them, studying them and drawing conclusions about trend changes is nonsense. The S&P500 will be making new tops in late September.

Considerations on the SP500 index (2015.08.07.)-- the SP500 will not only stop rising, but on the contrary should move down soon -- are confirmed by the actual movement of it.


2015.08.07 -- it was:


2015.08.21 -- this is now the case:

The chart depicts the state at the close of the market at 22:59 on Friday 21.08.2015.


And that's just the beginning. The direction of further SP500 movement -- DOWN.

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