Emotions when trading - page 17

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mmmoguschiy:
Heh - there's the Grail - I'm already one step away from the first million :-D
Don't jump to conclusions.
That's the way it was until today.
Don't lose sight of the tightening of the DKP.
Everything has to be compared to today's times.
I didn't pay much attention to the DKP in the past either.
Now I realise how serious it is.
I don't need any other conclusions.
 
mmmoguschiy:
Heh - there's the Grail - I'm already one step away from the first million :-D
In order for you to be more aware of the importance of macroeconomics, you need to pay more attention to the "fundamentals"...
Automated trading removes the need for you to think and dig into such details...
 
Globtroter:
Gold has always only gone up but not vice versa.

What am I talking about? It was going up, but what do we have now? A 4 year drop!!!

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Emotions in Trading

Globtroter, 2015.02.12 14:33


At that boom nothing but sales came to mind.
And those who were going to buy, at that time, wanted to get on the bygone train.


There's the contradiction again. You say that the trend should be followed, and now you say the opposite. Make up your mind! ;)

The train - you've obviously read Elder)). But again, why do you say again that you have to sell the euro?

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Emotions in trading

Globtroter, 2015.02.12 14:39

In order for you to be more aware of the importance of macroeconomics, you need to pay more attention to the "fundamentals"...
Automated trading removes the need for you to think and dig into such details...

I'm not diminishing the economic impact and I'm following it. But recent events confirm the opposite of what these same economists and heads of Rosbank and other individuals say
 
mmmoguschiy:
I had time to look at your old accounts. If I am not mistaken, one of them had 400% growth in a short time period - what an excellent result! Way to go!
Those were shallow drawdowns.
Just shallow pullbacks.
Now you will have a chance to see much more impressive percentages... :-)

When trading manually, in the highly volatile Forex market, being a "small private speculator", you can jump into a trend with only two conditions:

1) You figure out exactly when a new trend starts, and open in the right direction.
This option is the most preferable, because it brings huge profits. But as a rule this is the destiny of professional traders.
The rest of us will react to the movement, when the trend is confirmed by some facts.

2) You haven't figured out the beginning of a new trend... But further, if the trend is not expected to reverse (e.g. due to macroeconomics), you have at least received confirmation.
Enter on pullbacks and only in the direction of the trend. Tons of paperwork has been written about this. This is the conclusion of many years of experience of the best traders on the planet.
Those who trade against the trend ALWAYS lose capital (it is only a matter of time). Because no one can say where and at what point the pullback (correction) will stop.
This can only be seen by experience.
The safest trade is to open positions in the direction of the trend.

One more thing... I have met very few people who take long profitable positions.
In most cases they hold positions in drawdowns for a long time and almost never let profits grow when the drawdown is over.
Nerves are failing and trader hurries to fix any profit. This is what I observe from signals from the best providers.
This is because the market is very volatile. And greed, lack of patience, and the lack of a trading plan, does not allow them to increase their capital.
And if it grows, it grows very slowly, for the very reasons that have been described.
The only praise that the best signal providers deserve is the fact that they all open positions only in the direction of the trend.
And they almost always manage to take positions to the plus side.
So much for proving that the trend is "your friend".

If they were super-traders, they would trade against the trend (for example, buying backwards). But they do not have such trades.
All operations are only in the direction of the main trend. This is their key to a victory. At least they made a very important conclusion which makes them successful.

Some subscribers ask them what they will do if they make a mistake and don't notice that the trend has changed...?
The provider answers simply and naturally: - "I will fix the loss and turn over.
Subscribers are not happy with such an answer because they do not need loss-making trades.
They pay for a monthly subscription. Their computers are on 24/7 (except those on VPS).
They are waiting for profit, sufficient to cover costs, and, after that, waiting for more growth in continuation ...
But they forget that it does not take much intelligence to copy other people's trades, for which they pay. All is fair.
They forget that the trader caught a loss is not a problem, because any future loss is more than offset by the past and present profits...

So that's the way it is.

 
mmmoguschiy:
I am not in any way diminishing the economic influence and I am keeping an eye on it. But recent events again confirm the opposite of what these same economists and heads of Rosbank and other individuals say.
I was not referring to these economists-forecasters, but to macroeconomic indicators.
In any case, to understand what is the prevailing mood in the market, you need to look at different opinions.
If it seems silly to you, skip it. Only take in what you find useful.
 
Globtroter:

Whoever trades against the trend ALWAYS loses capital (it is only a matter of time). Because no one can say where and at what point the pullback (correction) will stop.
This can only be seen at the moment.


Just like the end of a trend. By the way, there is such a definition as "Elder's dog" - have you heard about it?

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Emotions in Trading

Globtroter, 2015.02.12 15:29

There's tons of paperwork written about this. This is the conclusion of many years of experience of the best traders in the world.



That's the thing - it's waste paper! And everyone reads this waste paper. So now the question arises - why do they leak, when they have a tremendous amount of experience as waste paper authors?
 
About this target I have already stated somewhere on the forum. I see that you have already appropriated it? )) On the broken-down target there might be a pullback. And not a weak one! On the model 5-0. I am not sure if the trend is over. But the break-down of the current level was not weak either, so it may be with a certain probability, that we may go to 1.08, after which the possibility for a wild pullback appears again! In other words I cannot predict it, and neither can the analysts. They are competent people, that is why they do not give specific predictions, maybe this way or that way :-D
 
mmmoguschiy:
Just like the end of a trend is not enough. By the way, there is such a definition as "Elder's dog" - have you ever heard of it?


That's the thing: it's just waste paper! And everyone reads this waste paper. So now the question arises - why do they leak, when they have a tremendous amount of experience as waste paper authors?

Yes, I know that definition.
Elder is the developer of some indicators in general. But I don't use any of them.
In one of his books he wrote that you should not overload yourself with a bunch of indicators.
That one should only arm oneself with a few handy and understandable indicators.
And go into battle lightweight.

I only have three indicators: moving average, MACD, Stochastic.
I'm comfortable with them.
By and large, I don't see the usefulness of indicators at all.
They often lie.
I trade by trends and only in the direction of the trend.
I'm not a super-professional. And I'm more comfortable that way.
And it doesn't require much.
Just a general background of information, basic maths and a little stamina.
I have more than once observed that real trades I have predicted have gone through without me, because the deposit has already been drained.
I have only once tried to do everything properly (not the way my hands itched) and got a result, which proved and confirmed it.
I don't need anything else. I have drawn my own conclusions.

What about the fact that many people are losing...
The markets are designed in such a way that as many people as possible lost as much money as possible.
Ask yourself why most smokers can't quit...
In the same way, in trading, most bidders (small private traders), cannot work on themselves and change themselves for the better, aiming to get results.
Working on yourself, your psyche, your thoughts... One of the most difficult tasks.
That's why most people lose money even if they are right in their prediction.
One prediction is not enough.

 
Globtroter:


More than once I have seen the moves I actually predicted go through without me, because the depot was already drained.

You just took the words right out of my mouth :-D

But I still can't curb my ardor - 50% of the last account loss on the news confirms it. )) But at those moments when I succeed really wonderful things happen :-D Just when you think it could be +50% my heart bleeds :-D
 
mmmoguschiy:

I have already said something about this goal somewhere on the forum. I see you've already appropriated it? )) On a target which has already been broken through, there could be a pullback. And not a weak one! On the model 5-0. I am not sure if the trend is over. But the break-down of the current level was not weak either, so it may be with a certain probability, that we may go to 1.08, after which the possibility for a wild pullback appears again! In other words I cannot predict it, and neither can the analysts. In other words, I cannot predict it, neither do the analysts. They are competent people, that is why they do not give specific forecasts.
I set the target 1.08290 "by eye" from the monthly chart.
This is a "convenient" level for the Market. Put it in the crosshair and you'll understand why.
When the price touches this target - all open positions (if they are all collected by a pullback) will be closed, and the profit on them (about 5791$ excluding swaps) will be fixed. It appears to me that this is the level from which the pullback will occur after the move.
After that two variants of actions appear;

1) to open one minimal volume to the trend direction at once, what not to miss the possible movement (that will be dangerous after such rough movement, but... to each his own).
2) Wait for a noticeable pullback and then, little by little, enter the trend (possible movement may be missed without a mini)...


I was itching to open a position with a bigger volume than the minimum...
You're laughing about minimum lots...
But don't you think that these minimum lots allow you to successfully go through drawdowns of any depth. And at the same time to build up volume... After all, after the trend continues, all of these positions together form a volume of 0.7 lots... I don't consider that a small volume. More than half a lot...! No wonder that after reaching the target, the risk premium is around 5791 (excluding swaps).
I gave you calculations where as many as 6 additions (6 Sell Limits) during a possible very deep correction. Elementary calculations show that the possible maximum drawdown would be slightly more than half of the entire deposit (assuming that the price makes such a deep correction and activates all 6 sells, which I am not sure about). Of course this is a departure from risk management. But the initial deposit is also quite small.
And to increase it at the very beginning of the equity life cycle one has to take risks. The only requirement is that this risk should be justified and confirmed by trends. And of course, it should not be the last of your money.
I hope I don't have to remind you that trading in financial markets is a high-risk activity...
And he who does not take risks, he is known to have nothing...
5791+4444=10234.... That's over 10k... I think that subsequent drawdowns will not be so "painful". And the risks can be reduced. The start should be aggressive and accurate. Mistakes are not allowed. Only the exact calculation and restraint is allowed. This is jewelry work. Or it's the work of a bomb squad...
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