Funny on one hand. All robot customers dream of getting their hands on the grail. - page 7
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The martingale has sense if the event is expected with a high probability, which is due to certain regularities. Price rollback under certain conditions (even Fibonacci levels) is an unavoidable event. In general, a smart martin has the right to live.
There is no point in using it at all. Unless they put a gun to your head and say "you do 10% of the deposit or you die".
Ok. By analogy with your example of "smart" martin.
Let's say you discovered a pattern that price never breaks through 5 levels in a row without rolling back at least one level. And we don't know at what level the pullback will occur (because if we did we wouldn't use a martin). - Then it is the case when you have to use martin, am I right?
There is no point in using it at all. Unless they put a gun to your head and say "you do 10% of the deposit or you die".
MrGold166:
Ральф Винс "математика управление капиталом". СРОЧНО к прочтению !!!
I have read it - I saw that the author's main idea is that the market has no clear patterns.
I, on the other hand (8 years), see that the market has a number of patterns, which have their probabilities. If one pattern (let's call it an opportunity) is not realised, then there is a high probability of the next pattern being realised, or the same pattern under new conditions.
"Here and now" forex cannot be beaten by definition, as the price is subject to economic cycles that last for years. Failure to understand this fact ruins traders looking for easy ways to make money.
I don't quite understand about wanting to fight forex - projection!?
If it were a constant lot test, it would be OK. Although, no, in five years - recovery factor to 3 - this is also not good and would not be good even in the absence of the fact of adjustment (optimization in the tester). And given that the Expert Advisor uses the lot multiplier and obviously has a lot of adjustable parameters, it's an absolutely random result. Judging by the test, there is not even a hint of perspective in this robot.
I wonder how you evaluate the results. If you look carefully at the chart, you can see that drawdowns are rare and large lots are rarely used, which means that it is possible to trade a basket of Expert Advisors or to raise funds when necessary.
The result is not random, and it fits my idea of the market (money is driven by people), and the optimization here is based on the basic parameters of the Expert Advisor from the sample of 5k variants.
What recovery factor is acceptable to you and how many percent per year is considered a good result?
Yes, and the optimisation was done between 2010 and 2013, and the test confirmed that the year before that the strategy was up to date and the current year is in the black - I think that is also a good indicator.
Here's the interesting thing, how do you evaluate the result? If you look closely at the chart, you can see that drawdowns are rare and large lots are rarely used, which means that it is possible to trade a basket of EAs, or to raise cash when needed.
The result is not random, and it fits my idea of the market (money is driven by people), and the optimization here is based on the basic parameters of the Expert Advisor from the sample of 5k variants.
What recovery factor is acceptable to you and how many percent per year is considered a good result?
For me, an FS of at least 15 per year is acceptable. But there is a need for a set of statistical indicators and characteristics of the adjustable parameters of the Expert Advisor itself. The topic is wide-ranging and quite complex.
About interest per year.... depends on how much money you have. I won't touch the most important concept of liquidity limits and scalability of trading strategies. Suppose you went to the casino, dialed 50% of your account on margin. Is that considered a good result? Yes. Is there any upside? -No. But if you found a pattern, that's different. How do you determine whether you've found them or not?
A very correct thing you wrote: "If an event is expected with a high probability, which is determined by patterns. A price pullback under certain conditions (eventhe Fibonacci levels) is an unavoidable event". Reply to my comment about smart martin.
You may have to turn it off, or you may trade without martingale. 10% is a 10, 15, or 20 lots a month, while banks are fools that offer 2% p.a. in USD and do not bother asking, there are queues.
I read it - saw that the author's main idea is that the market has no clear patterns.
I, on the other hand, see so far (8 years) that the market has a number of patterns that have their probabilities. If one pattern (let's call it an opportunity) is not realised, then there is a high probability of the next pattern being realised, or the same pattern under new conditions.
I'm surprised you haven't realised in eight years that it doesn't do you any good.
All your statistical patterns can die forever at any moment, or your probability of realising them can drop by leaps and bounds somewhere near zero.
You can never gain an advantage in the market if you pay for unsuccessful trades with your money.
If you trade on the phones and perform actions aimed at making a profit, i.e. trying to sell something to someone,
you don't have to pay a potential buyer your money if he, after considering your offer, never buys anything.
This is the difference between a normal business and trading on price forecasts in the market.
Both are probabilistic in making successful deals, but in a normal business these deals are notionally risk-free.
In business, the risk is only related to the cost of doing business. The very instrument of making money in business must be risk-free.
Otherwise it will not be business, but gambling, which always and inevitably leads only to losses.
Any robot that trades on strategies based on future price predictions is just a money sinking machine.
You will never make money with it.
You will never make any money with it. Good luck!
For me, an FS of at least 15 a year is acceptable.
I don't thinkI' ve ever seen such EAs...
About the percentage per year.... depends on how much money you have. I will not touch the most important concept of liquidity limits and scalability of trading strategies. Let's just say that let's say you went to the casino and made 50% of your account on roulette on margin. Is it considered a good result? Yeah. Is there any upside? -No. But if you found a pattern, that's another matter. How do you determine whether you found it or not?
If we are talking about a specific Expert Advisor, it opens positions under certain conditions and if 70% of positions give positive results, then I believe this is a consistent pattern and we need to work with the conditions for filtering the signal and managing the deposit - there is a ToR on these issues, but no performer. What is more I am looking for trend Expert Advisor (ideas) that may reduce drawdown of the main anti-trend strategy.
Suppose you found the pattern that price never breaks through 5 levels in a row, without pulling back at least one level. And we don't know at what level the pullback will happen (because if we did we wouldn't use martin). - Then that's the case when you have to use a martin, right?
You got it right - there is a condition the execution of which is expected with higher probability than non-execution - that's where the lot multiplier is needed, but not Martin.
I'm just looking for the best way to calculate the multiplier size. My strategies' Take Profit or position close is a floating value and there are some difficulties with it.
Yes, and the EA also closes losing positions if the probability of price movement in the right direction disappears.