Anti-martingale - page 2
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Ivan you are wrong. (By the way Williams goes to 3 very bad letters, he deserves it)
The regularities are there now and work out fine without any problems. At the same time they have become more complex, times more complex. Once upon a time it was probably possible to put one Mashka and trade from its direction. But as you say "because that's how all the "smart guys" trade", consequently the resource of this pattern gets depleted and it simply disappears. You cannot squeeze more out of any pattern than there is in the market.
At the same time, this view of the market as a certain chaos of a bunch of small speculators, which is completely untrue. The presence of market makers, hedge funds and other big players changes everything dramatically. As a result, the market has not turned into a kind of swamp of almost perfect chaos that instantly reacts to the emergence and identification of patterns by the players and eliminates them.
As for the championship, it's quite funny. Strong dependence on luck is related to the fact that if you set the algorithm with normal risks you have no chance at all to break into the top. If you start to overestimate the risks, it does not matter which algorithm is the basis of the strategy, because the probability of total loss is more than 50%. In such a case why bother? put the MACD that comes with the terminal (in the package) adding MM to it and take the first place. (2011 by Igor Korepin aka Xupypr)
Of course you're right, but it doesn't follow at all from here that I'm wrong.... :-))))
Good luck!
1 By the way, I - meant chaos - as a higher order, and here I agree with the person you told 3 letters....
2 I didn't say there was no pattern!
3 I think it was impossible to use standard EAs, or I think they overplayed the results of 2011, or the MAKD standard indicator was used, and I think there is a standard EA on MAKD, so explain, what do you mean ... otherwise I think you are wrong ... :-)))
Of course you're right, but it doesn't follow at all from here that I'm wrong.... :-))))
Good luck!
1 By the way, I - meant chaos - as a higher level order, and here I agree with the person you sent to 3 letters....
2 I didn't say there was no pattern!
3 I think it was impossible to use standard EAs, or they overplayed the 2011 results, or the MAKD indicator was used, and I think there is a standard EA on MAKD, so explain, what do you mean ... otherwise I think you're wrong ... :-)))
1. it's pretty ephemeral.
2. In fact, there are algorithms in the hands of private "investors" (aka traders) who successfully make money on both the stock and currency markets. The matter is that their working methods are very different from the methods proposed to beginners and there is very little information about them. They adjust and improve, but they work for years.
3. he added an MM block to the MACD Expert Advisor which used the maximum possible risks within the Championship (3 trades of 5 lots, 15 in total). I don't think he has changed anything else. The code has been in the public domain almost since the beginning of the Championship in 2011.
1. it's pretty ephemeral.
2. In fact, there are algorithms in the hands of private "investors" (aka traders) successfully making money in both stock and currency markets. The matter is that their working methods are very different from the methods proposed to beginners and there is very little information about them. They adjust and improve, but they work for years.
3. he added an MM block to the MACD Expert Advisor which used the maximum possible risks within the Championship (3 trades of 5 lots, 15 in total). I don't think he has changed anything else. The code has been in the public domain since the beginning of the Championship in 2011.
1 Goals are always ephemeral, until someone achieves it, then it becomes reality, and a line of supporters, like-minded people and other do-gooders line up.
2 Are you familiar with at least one such algorithm, personally and in detail?
3 Good for you!
and do you understand all the words in the above? )) You said almost the same thing, only I wrote everything without rubbish in its pure form, but you didn't notice that.
Also you are wrong about martingale, it is not only ineffective but generally an unacceptable MM option due to guaranteed drainage.
This is a task for the 2nd year of any so called "institute". Take a piece of paper and paper and calculate.
1) have a strategy where we will have 50% of positive entries and 50% of negative. what is the probability of getting a sufficient series of losing trades to plummet our deposit? how much money will we be able to earn if we get this series at the very end (e.g. probability 1/1000, so the series will be 1000th)
2) The same for say 65%, will we lose money if such a series occurs at the beginning of the game?
Of course you can complicate things by limiting losses, complicated systems of docking and other nonsense, the main thing is not to deceive yourself that it allegedly will somehow affect the final result.
I was just saying that for some reason your strategy is limited by 50% probability of winning, but you do not take into account that this is not a coin flip, we are not talking about pure martingale, for example buying every hour with martingale, I'm saying that there is sense in using martin, if the strategy guarantees no more than 2-3 losing trades with optimal SL and TP, then the deposit will withstand drawdown and profit will be provided, how to implement it - another question
"maximum capital management, and here too no child's toys (martin, anti-martin and so on) is out of the question." - I do not see the coincidence of thoughts.
Your opinion rests on the initially profitable strategy with increased risks and increased profits, which will give more profit and more strategy, compared to martingale, and a complete rejection of the use of martingale, as a method of MM
2 Are you familiar with at least one such algorithm, personally and in detail?
of course
"I'm saying it makes sense to use martin" - you're wrong, I've already referred to disciplines that lovers of such toys deny their existence outright, read it for your own development.
"I don't see the coincidence of thoughts" that's just me complementing.
"Your opinion rests on an inherently profitable strategy with increased risks and increased profits, which will give the strategy more profit and more strategy, compared to martingale and a complete denial of the use of martingale, as a method of MM"
You know there's opinion and there's maths. You can think 2 + 2 equals 5, but in reality it will only be 4. So here, you may think that martingale is a good MM, but the reality is that it has no right to live if the goal is not to lose the deposit but to earn.
It's always funny to listen to the martingale cult, it's like a religion)
of course
Such a statement commands respect!
It's unclear where the attacks on other points of view come from..... Trying to defend your own... Doesn't add up....
If you're OK with methodology.... Where is this emotion coming from....mmm not very harmonious....
.... Or are you burning with the desire to share with others.... But something is stopping you... ;-)
You know, there's opinion and there's maths. You can think that 2 + 2 equals 5, but in reality it's only 4. So here, you may think that martingale is a good MM, but the reality is that it has no right to live if the goal is not to lose the deposit but to earn.
It's always funny to listen to followers of martingale, it's like a religion.)
Good and bad - notions are relative, and depend on the point of view....
I understand that you have been burned by martin.....
By the way - what's the cheese about....
Can someone give a clear definition of the "Martingale method"?
Because it seems to me - we are talking about different things here.....
All about different things.... :-) Talking to ourselves....