Territory of probability - page 5
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Well said!
I think it's the volumes of money that rule the forex market that are undisclosed. What causes the price to turn around? - I.e., conditions must be created for it - and the price moves where the market makers can make money - so when many traders believed the trend continuation and went north, the price will instantly react and go south - to provide money for those who make the market.
I told you in a previous post why most people lose. Because they buy at the top of the market and sell at the bottom of the market.
Your thesis of a 50% probability of winning is too abstract, because you haven't articulated the initial conditions. Depending on where you are in the market (initial conditions) at a given point in time, the probability of winning will vary. For example, let's take the historical extremums of the EURUSD pair: max = 1.60 on 01.07.2008, min = 0.82 on 01.10.2000. So if you buy EURUSD near the historical maximum and set big goals (2500.0 pips), the probability of losing is higher than the probability of gaining, and vice versa, if you buy EURUSD near the historical minimum, the probability of gaining is higher than the probability of losing.
So reasoning about a 50% chance of winning or losing without considering specific conditions (risk, position holding time, targets, etc.) is reasoning about nothing. And this reasoning (without n.o.s.) has nothing to do with probability theory.
I always wonder why all traders lose (99.999 and if some don't lose it means they haven't done it yet). Probably the probability of winning is slightly below 50% due to the spread, say 45%, that is 45 traders out of 100 should be in the long run in the plus, but in fact almost everyone is in the red. It seems that we have the advantage - powerful computers, thousands of indicators, expert advisors, neural networks, etc. - and yet we are always in the red? What is this trick? Is the impact of the spread so large? Is it really the 3 pip spread that is to blame?
And because 99% of people can't play the piano virtuoso, or can't paint pictures skillfully, or aren't highly paid professionals.
http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Закон_Парето
When you stop treating the market like blind mathematics, maybe you'll understand something.
The famous saying "playing the market is easy" sounds like "painting is easy" ... everything is fair, but to sell such a painting, the key question is.
And even if your painting looks like a $140 million Pollock.
or an $80 million Jones.
Even though our brain is playing with us by saying - I can learn to paint for $1 million, the fact is that it won't happen, not because nobody will buy it for that much money, but because when you really learn to paint, you'll understand why it's worth so much ... and why you can't do it without talent, luck, persistence and a lifetime of work.
$ millionaires have their own quirks, they live a different life. they don't do daily forex trading.
https://www.mql5.com/ru/articles/26 - the namesake here also draws
And because 99% of people can't play the piano virtuoso, or can't paint pictures skillfully, or aren't highly paid professionals.
http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Закон_Парето
When you stop treating the market like a mathematician, maybe you'll understand something.
the famous saying "playing the market is easy" sounds like "painting is easy" ... everything is fair, but to sell such a painting, the key question. and even if your painting looks like a poloka for 140 million dollars
or Jasper Johns for $80 million.
Even though our brain is playing with us by saying "I can learn to paint for $1 million, the fact is that it won't happen, not because no one will buy it for that amount of money, but because when you really learn to paint, you'll understand why it's worth so much...and why you can't paint something like that without any talent, luck, persistence and a lifetime of hard work.
Continuing your analogy with drawing you can say that "while the gray masses are learning to draw imitating the great artists, geniuses of the brush create something that never existed before them" and as always, again prove unattainable for most.
The great ones are valued not for what they have done but for having done it first, thereby showing the way.
Nowadays any fool can solve a system of linear equations, but in Newton's time it was digital magic.
$ millionaires have their own quirks, they live a different life. they don't do daily forex trading.
https://www.mql5.com/ru/articles/26 - the namesake here also draws
I've had the good fortune to know two people close to me in life whose wealth is over a million dollars... and take my word for it... the tale that they shit money is untrue. They, more than anyone else, are great at counting and knowing the value of money and things. And about fads, with that kind of money you can afford to choose what you want or like, it's called a fad. Except when they buy a yacht, they'll never pay a dollar more for it than it's worth. If a painting is worth that much for half a century and only grows in value, there is something about it that is not accidental, even though our brain refuses to believe it.
This is not to talk about art, but about the fact that what seems simple is not really so.
I can hold out for six months, I can earn, and then bang and fell off ... creative nature takes its toll, and does monstrous things).. he answered that he had also tried his hand at the market ... for a month, and then realized that the market was not his... I still do not understand.
$ millionaires have their own quirks, they live a different life. they don't do daily forex trading.
https://www.mql5.com/ru/articles/26 - the namesake here also draws
The market is 5 years old... at this stage, my thoughts on the above : the market, it's an art. no probability, no probability works, just like logic, except that female logic is more applicable here :) it's like music (I've been making music myself for 15 years)... There are a ton of synthesizers, ways to write music, but in the end, it all doesn't work, and ONLY talent multiplied by experience and hard work. trying to approach the market from the standpoint of probability theory is as stupid as writing music from the same standpoint. If you go further in comparison, you need to understand and, most importantly, feel the rhythm, the tonality, the idea from within, otherwise you will fail or make a fake. They often compare successful trading on the market to controlling an aeroplane, but I think it's more accurate to compare it to playing the piano.
Only a short-sighted person would say that the market is easy, but one should not engage in fetishism or idolatry towards the market either. The market is, if I may say so, only a "physiological" part of the functioning of the huge organism called "FINANCE", i.e. the digestive and excretory system. Yes, the system is complex, but to understand it you don't have to look for harmonic or melodic components of the "Divine Symphony" in your "tummy rumbling".
I'm not comparing the market to music, it's as stupid as probability theory. comparing the way of making money to art, in this context "art" should be understood correctly. everyone understands why you feel sick to your stomach, but only a nutritionist can help, not the pH numbers, etc. if you're going for that kind of allegory.
In fact, the same nutritionist will send you to do tests to get that same set of numbers: pH, etc.
Don't you think it's silly to speculate about things you don't know or to put "silly"/"not silly" labels on things that you don't even try to understand? For example, with probability theory, and statistical models based on it, you can describe the market with 99% accuracy. For you it does not mean anything. There will always be endless talk about rare exceptions, music, pictures, lengthy arguments and so on. But this is not a women's site. Believe it or not, this is a forum for mechanical trading systems, and whether you like it or not, you will use the 99% one way or another, knowing or disregarding their existence.