The future of automated trading: round two - page 8
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Behind any big project there are always one or two people who came up with it. The others only help or hinder. A typical mid-sized hedge fund is one or two people with brains plus 3-4 others who help. Big companies can hold a lot of these "funds" where one or two think and the company provides all the infrastructure. Those who think do it well - PhDs in mathematics from the world's leading universities are not given for nothing. Shiryaev mentioned in his lectures that his best students flock to Western financial companies. Are you ready to compete with them?
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Shiryaev's students were here (Kamal and kniff). Thank you for reminding me. If you missed it (maybe some of you didn`t see it at all. You should read it (https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/105771/page14#53681). I absolutely agree, their level is incredibly high. It's a pity they are no longer on the forum, I would have liked to learn a lot from them Yes while I can still compete with them. But I will say this, I wish they were on my side of the monitor and not on the other side. If they are on the other side and have better software and trading platform than me, then there is no chance (I leave it that way only theoretically) practically there is none. On this I completely agree...
I have read the whole thread. my opinion: the power is not in the hardware, the power is in the idea. and ideas are born by individuals, as Prival aptly noted. although in high-frequency trading you really cannot compete with the big guys. but that, by and large, is just brute-force...
I do not remember who said it, but he said it well: "There are many good mathematicians in the world, but few good traders. I myself, unfortunately, do not belong to the latter, and therefore I cannot assess the talents of the former. It just comes to mind. Although mathematics is a big plus, of course.
I have read the whole thread. my opinion: the power is not in the hardware, the power is in the idea. and ideas are born by individuals, as Prival aptly noted. although in high-frequency trading you really cannot compete with the big guys. but that, by and large, is just brute-force...
I do not remember who said it, but he said it well: "There are many good mathematicians in the world, but few good traders. I myself, unfortunately, do not belong to the latter, and therefore I cannot assess the talents of the former. It just comes to mind. Although mathematics is a big plus, of course.
Don't get hung up on high-frequency only. It's not the only thing robots can do. It's just fast and good money. And it's also an example of what happens to trading when grown-ups take it seriously. For mere mortals, trading ends. And it's not dumb at all. It's not like nightly chasing spikes in broker quotes, it's real market trading with search for liquidity and other delights.
About maths - there are far fewer financial mathematicians than there are mathematicians, and even fewer good financial mathematicians. Going back to the job list I gave in the beginning, people are looking for good mathematicians and are willing to pay them big bucks, but the process is sluggish - there's a shortage of good people. And they are all in ...?
Although in high-frequency trading you really can't compete with the big guys, but it's basically a brute-force...
Yes, not really a brut-force (in my mind at least). Read to anyone interested, briefly what it's all about...
http://algoritmus.ru/?p=1555
P.S. Good thread, but since the thread starter and those who could say caustic but on-topic banned, well, I'll say nothing. The man is a reader.
Ширяев в своих лекциях упоминал, что его лучшие ученики косяком идут в западные фин.компании. Вы готовы конкурировать с ними?
Yes. Because they're fools.
Prival's statement got me thinking. On this forum there are a lot of attempts to apply various mathematical tools to the market.
And as a rule, most of these attempts fail. And at the heart of all these failures is one property of the market...
The reason is something else. Mathematical models by themselves mean nothing. If you don't know what you want to get and how it should work, no mathematical model will help you. A prime example of this is the many totally useless academic threads on this forum going from nothing to nothing. They keep multiplying up to about 50-60 pages, and then everything comes down (at best) to some abstruse super resource-intensive indicator, like a simple dashboard, although even the graphs show that it works much worse than the dashboard itself. Mathematics is an empty science, it has no idea. It's more of a method. But I love mathematics. It's the best tool for highlighting what you want to highlight. But the tool itself doesn't carry an idea. Many of the people here think differently, they think that once they can screw an abstruse formula onto a tick chart, something will change. No, it won't.
Another "fooled by chance"? When so many monkeys trade at the same time, one of them is bound to win and start giving interviews on TV. And there will even be someone who ends up winning long enough. He will be able to stop and start lecturing about his ingenious method.
O.K. Let's take Gerchik again (no, I'm not his fan, and am very skeptical of his "success" but still). So this man has been trading for 12 years (since 1996, I think). He trades intraday, making 150-200 deals a day. In his words, for all these 12 years he hasn't missed almost a single trading session. Altogether we have 250 trading days a year (with some reserve) * 12 years * 150 deals per day = 450 000 deals. Does his luck last for such a long time? How does he manage to make profit every month? It is simply impossible to do so with SB. Where are those famous ticking robots? With their collateral, they should tear Herczyk and others like him to shreds.
OK. Sadte on a zilch can go to the ice rink. And into the mountains. serpentine. you may touch the steering wheel once an hour, no sooner or later. once. turn around and that's it. for an hour onwards in a straight line...
Warren Buffett:
You can achieve great success in inaction. Many investors cannot resist the urge to constantly buy and sell.
If you are not going to own a stock for 10 years, there is no point in buying for 10 minutes.
Short-term market forecasts are poison. They should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and adults who behave like children in the market.
If tomorrow Buffett says that this optimal equation theory is nonsense, he will be right, not the handful of mathematicians who proved it. Because in this business the one who is richer is right, not the one who is smarter.
C-4:
Знаю что многие здесь с хорошим математическим образованием. Только без обид. Все это действительно здорово, но в реальной торговле практически не помогает.
is this a joke .... ? or just a misunderstanding of the trade....
If tomorrow Buffett says that this optimal equation theory is nonsense, he will be right and not the handful of mathematicians who proved it. Because in this business the one who is richer is right, not the one who is smarter.
It seems to me that Buffett has nothing to do with this topic. Long-term investing in large shares is practically operational management on the rights of the majority owner.
If you sit at a computer for 10 hours, that's 15-20 trades an hour. A trade every 3-4 minutes, and for 10 hours! He also lectures, but he hasn't missed a single trading session. Can you believe that?