Machine learning in trading: theory, models, practice and algo-trading - page 2115

 
Aleksey Vyazmikin:

Oversampling does not give anything yet, but the "volume" has improved the result a little - it means that there is something in the data, the main thing is to dig properly.

Histogram of models with different quantization settings on the sample.


It makes a better boundary between classes. The same way you have to prepare the data - so that the separation into classes is clear, the examples do not overlap.

and I even know how to do it... kinda smart, but I haven't done it yet
 
Maxim Dmitrievsky:

it makes a better boundary between classes. The same way you should prepare the data - so that the division into classes is clear, the examples do not overlap

I even know how to do it... I'm pretty smart, but I haven't done it yet.

I wonder how? In our field, usually classes can be described as evenly mixed.

 
Maxim Dmitrievsky:

it makes a better boundary between classes. The same way you should prepare the data - so that the division into classes is clear, examples do not overlap

I even know how to do it... I'm kinda smart, but I haven't done it yet.
Maxim Dmitrievsky:
Add clustering to label sampling. Clustering by the same features, then sampling with clusters. The classes will be separated, but it's not clear what will happen to the new data. It should improve, in theory.

So I covered this idea here this week :)

Only I suggest decreasing the number of major classes.

 
Aleksey Vyazmikin:

So I covered this idea here this week :)

Only I propose to reduce the number of majority class.

I haven't seen
 
Maxim Dmitrievsky:
I have not seen

Are there any methods/tools that can do this automatically?

 
Aleksey Vyazmikin:

Are there any methods/tools that can do this automatically?

I don't know, I'll have to take a look. Maybe this weekend I'll have a look.
 
Maxim Dmitrievsky:
I don't know, I'll have to see. Maybe this weekend I'll look.

Please let me know if you find it, otherwise I'll start assembling my bicycle :)

Elibrarius suggested an idea - just build a branching tree and use it instead of clustering, taking information from leaves in order to reduce majority class.

 

Current futures - training completed in 2018. It's too beautiful.

And here is the same pattern in the last futures. It's sadder, but bearable.

Even closer to the end of the training, let's see the futures. And that's where the trouble is.

And I do not understand what is going on - it would seem that the closer to the end of the training, the better the results should be, but it turns out all the opposite - an anomaly!

 

It seems that the answer lies in the trend itself - the current futures without MO

Last

and also

What about this MO?

 
No, according to the percentages there is a learning curve type - without MOI 40%-45% are profitable, and with MOI 60%-65%. But this is not an indicator for trading, if the profit is not equal to the loss.
Reason: