D1 price is on market rally with 1.2859 support and 1.3160 resistance levels.
H4 price is on market rally within primary bearish: Chinkou Span line crossed the price from below to Above on close bar, and price is trying to break 1.2979 resistance for possible reversal of the price movement from primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition.
W1 price is on primary bearish with 1.2920 as the nearest support line.
D1 price will break 1.2988 resistance level on close bar so the rally will be continuing up to the next resistance: 1.3160.If D1 price will break 1.2859 support level so the primary bearish will be continuing.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on EURUSD price movement for this coming week)
2014-09-15 09:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Trade Balance]
2014-09-16 09:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment]
2014-09-16 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - PPI]
2014-09-17 09:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - CPI]
2014-09-17 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - CPI]
2014-09-17 18:00 GMT (or 20:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]
2014-09-18 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Building Permits]
2014-09-18 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Unemployment Claims]
2014-09-18 12:45 GMT (or 14:45 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech]
2014-09-18 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]
SUMMARY : bearish
TREND : rally
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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2014.09.13 19:41
newdigital, 2014.09.15 17:30
if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Industrial Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. It's a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly
to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer
conditions such as employment levels and earnings.
U.S. Industrial Production Unexpectedly Edges Down 0.1% In August
With manufacturing output falling for the first time since January,
the Federal Reserve released a report on Monday showing that U.S.
industrial production unexpectedly decreased in the month of August.
report said industrial production edged down by 0.1 percent in August
after inching up by a downwardly revised 0.2 percent in July.
modest drop came as a surprise to economists, who had expected
production to climb by 0.3 percent compared to the 0.4 percent increase
originally reported for the previous month.
The unexpected drop in
industrial production came as manufacturing output fell by 0.4 percent
in August after rising by 0.7 percent in July.
The Fed noted that
the production of motor vehicles and parts tumbled by 7.6 percent in
August after jumping by more than 9 percent in July.
Meanwhile, the report also said mining output rose by 0.5 percent in August after dipping by 0.3 percent in the previous month.
output also surged up by 1.0 percent in August after plunging by 2.7
percent and 2.0 percent in July and June, respectively.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, M5, 2014.09.15
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
EURUSD M5 : 27 pips price movement by USD - Industrial Production news event
newdigital, 2014.09.14 09:47
EURUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)
Euro selling pressure appears to be waning at last after eight consecutive weeks of losses that brought the single currency to the lowest level in 14 months against the US Dollar.
The operative question going forward is whether this precedes a period
of consolidation before a reinvigorated push downward or a correction
upward. The answer will be found in the markets’ response to a hefty
dose of high-profile event risk on the domestic and the external fronts
in the week ahead.
Looking inward, thespotlight is on the first ECB TLTRO operation due to be held on September 18.
The effort represents one of many easing tools that Mario Draghi and
company have deployed in recent months in an attempt to check the slide
toward deflation and repair the seemingly broken monetary policy
transmission mechanism that has made the central bank’s prior attempts
at stimulus largely ineffective. The scheme envisions offering Eurozone
banks cheap capital tied up with conditions pushing them re-lend it
while passing on low borrowing costs to the real economy, stoking
activity and boosting prices. The key variable in play will be the
size of the liquidity provision that is ultimately taken up by banks
tapping the facility. In a somewhat counter-intuitive turn of events, a
large capital allocation seems likely to offer support to the Euro.
Externally, the first major item of note is the FOMC policy
announcement. September’s outing will be accompanied by the release of
an updated set of forecasts for key metrics of US economic activity as
well as press conference from Chair Janet Yellen. The Fed has long
warned about complacently buoyant risk appetite as the end of QE3 looms
ahead next month. If policymakers opt to shake things loose with
upbeat activity projections and/or a hawkish outing from Ms Yellen,
this may put the Euro’s increasingly unattractive yield profile in
stark relief and reinvigorate bearish momentum.
The second is the Scottish Independence referendum. Opinion polls ahead
of the ballot essentially point to a 50/50 chance that Scotland will
secede from the UK. This implies that – whatever the final result – a
surge of volatility is likely to follow the results as those on the
wrong side of the outcome are forced to readjust positions. A final
vote in favor of independence is likely weigh on Sterling, sending
capital fleeing to alternatives. The Euro looks like a natural
beneficiary in such a scenario. Needless to say, a victory for the “no”
campaign will probably yield the opposite result.
newdigital, 2014.09.16 12:52
if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
[EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed German institutional investors and analysts. It's a leading indicator of economic health - investors and analysts are
highly informed by virtue of their job, and changes in their sentiment
can be an early signal of future economic activity
German ZEW Investor Confidence Eases Less Than Expected
Germany's investor confidence weakened less-than-expected in
September, reports said Tuesday citing data from the Centre for European
The ZEW economic sentiment index fell to
6.9, which was above economists' forecast for a score of 5. In August,
the index reading was 8.6.
The current conditions index of the
survey, meanwhile, tumbled to 25.4, which was well below the consensus
expectation of 40. In August, the reading was 44.3.
The Eurozone economic sentiment index of the survey eased to 14.2 in September. In August, the reading was 23.7.
EURUSD, M5, 2014.09.16
EURUSD M5 : 6 pips price movement by EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment news event
newdigital, 2014.09.17 06:18
EURUSD Technical Analysis: Short at 1.3644 (based on dailyfx article)
A daily close above the 14.6% Fibonacci retracementat
1.2981 exposes the 23.6% level at 1.3057. Alternatively, a turn below
the 50% Fib expansion at 1.2864 opens the door for a test of the 61.8%
threshold at 1.2794.
newdigital, 2014.09.17 11:37
Trading the News: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Interest Rate Decision (based on dailyfx article)
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision may spur
a bearish reaction in the dollar (bullish EUR/USD) if the central bank
remains reluctant to move away from the zero-interest rate policy
What’s Expected:Why Is This Event Important:
Even though the Fed is widely expected to conclude its asset-purchase
program at the October 29 meeting, we would need a more hawkish twist to
the forward-guidance for monetary policy to favor further USD strength.
The dollar may come under pressure should we get more of the same from
the Fed, and the greenback may face a larger correction over the
remainder of the month should Chair Janet Yellen see greater scope to
retain the highly accommodative policy stance for an extended period of
time.Nevertheless, sticky inflation paired with the uptick in wage growth may
spur a greater dissent within the committee and push the FOMC to lay
out a more detailed exit strategy as the central bank looks to move away
from its easing cycle.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish USD Trade: FOMC Remains Reluctant to Normalize Monetary Policy
EURUSD, M5, 2014.09.17
EURUSD M5 : 62 pips price movement by USD - Federal Funds Rate news event
newdigital, 2014.09.17 15:05
[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation
is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the
central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation
With a substantial decrease in energy prices more than offsetting
higher prices for food and shelter, the Labor Department released a
report on Wednesday showing an unexpected drop in U.S. consumer prices
in the month of August.
The Labor Department said its consumer
price index dipped by 0.2 percent in August after inching up by 0.1
percent in July. The modest drop came as a surprise to economists, who
had expected consumer prices to come in unchanged.
EURUSD M5 : 24 pips price movement by USD - CPI news event
newdigital, 2014.09.18 10:56
EUR/USD Vulnerable to Hawkish Fed- Outlook May Hinge on T-LTRO (based on dailyfx yotube channel)
The EUR/USD may look beyond the FOMC policy meeting to break out of the rate as the ECB implements the targeted long-term refinancing operation (T-LTRO).=============2014-09-18 09:15 GMT (or 11:15 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Targeted LTRO]
[EUR - Targeted LTRO] = Total value of money the ECB will create and use to loan to Eurozone banks. It provides liquidity to banks which usually leads to lower long-term interest rates and stimulates growth.
LTRO = Long Term Refinancing Option
EURUSD, M5, 2014.09.18
Pride Pounds Sterling
The U.S. dollar remains king. It has risen against a
broad basket of currencies for nine consecutive weeks and so far has completed
its longest winning streak in 17 years. Will the Federal Reserve end its
winning ratio or is it to be a temporary blip before pushing on to greater
heights? Many expect the greenback to continue its rally, hitting €1.20 against
the EUR by the end of 2015, driven mostly by the cyclical strength in the U.S.
economy as opposed to Europe.
The single unit will have to battle various structural
macro-disadvantages, and most importantly, the growing divergence in central
bank monetary policy. A fear of the Fed taking a more hawkish stance at its
two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting that concludes tomorrow is
keeping both European and U.S. bond yields elevated. U.S. policymakers are
expected to shed some light on plans to raise interest rates. Despite
policymakers having a habit of disappointing, the recent uptick in the dollar’s
interest is a massive boost to both volume and volatility and hence opportunity
Celtic Pride Weighs on Sterling Despite central bank
rhetoric dominating directional flows across the various asset classes, it’s
nationalism that is pounding sterling. The looming Scottish referendum is
dominating market price action. The pound remains under renewed pressure this
morning (£1.6178), as the market suffers with last minute nerves with a
too-close-to-call vote on sovereignty. There is a belief that the market is a
tad too complacent in pricing the possibility of a “yes” vote – an outcome in favor
of independence would probably weaken the GBP by a further -4 to -8%. Making it
increasingly difficult for skittish investors is the Fed. If Chair Janet Yellen
and company happen to be hawkish or less dovish tomorrow, it will certainly put
the pound firmly on the back foot along with the remaining majors, as U.S. rate
divergence trumps all.
Despite the ‘toing and froing’ in opinion polls, the U.K.
bookies report that the “no” wagers outnumber “yes” bets by three to one — this
would suggest that the danger to sterling remains to its left-hand side. So far
this year, it has lost -2.5% in value to the dollar and even a close vote will
bring its own repercussions. Just ask the Canadians about Quebec: it took years
for the sovereignty question to go away while businesses fled la belle
province, hurting the Canadian economy. Official results in the Scottish
referendum will be made public on Friday.
RBA Finds New Pet Peeve Aussie
policymakers rarely mince words, and on the release of the Reserve Bank of
Australia’s (RBA) policy meeting minutes overnight, they renewed their concerns
over the risks of rising housing prices. The RBA has warned of speculative
demand in the country’s real estate sector, triggered by record low interest
rates, signaling that further monetary policy easing is unlikely in the near
term — on September 2 Governor Glenn Stevens kept interest rates at +2.5% for
the thirteenth straight month. Like other prudent central banks, RBA officials
are worried that Aussie macroeconomic stability would be in danger, and that
speculative demand (instigated by Asian interest) increases the probability of
a free-fall in prices. There is a flipside: many do not see a substantial risk
in the sector and that Australia should produce more housing given the demand.
Even economic growth, which is expected to recover next year thanks to
encouraging trends in employment of late, would be expected to absorb most new
The AUD made a feeble attempt to rally today
(AUD$0.9050), supported by the RBA’s growing concern about housing prices, and
the uptick in iron-ore prices. Nevertheless, the rally is fleeting at best, as
the Aussie is currently making an assault on the psychological AUD$0.9000
handle. Despite the diminished expectations of another rate cut, the AUD faces
downside risks from a plethora of outside forces — the massive unwinding of the
carry trade fueled by Fed rate divergence and soft Chinese data. Currently, the
AUD is expected to make another assault on Monday’s six-month low (AUD$
0.8984). Many investors will want to wait for the Fed tomorrow to support
Euro Steady despite Improved ZEW The EUR
has been contained, supported by carry trade unwinds, or EUR/GBP buying. Both
of these trades had become crowed in recent months and currently the focus is
not directly on the EUR but the Aussie dollar and sterling. Even this morning’s
German ZEW has had little direct impact on the single unit despite it coming in
slightly better than the 4.8 that was expected with a reading of 6.9 compared
with 8.6 previously. It is the ninth consecutive month that the index is lower,
but the rate of decline has slowed. The current condition index is much lower
at 25.4 compared to 44.3 previously, obviously weighed down by geopolitical
risk concerns and the fallout from sanctions imposed on Russia by the West. The
market remains a comfortable seller of EUR on rallies with offers reported
between €1.2965-75, and stop-losses just above the option reported €1.3000
Many investors would be better served focusing on the CHF
rather than the EUR outright this week as the single unit remains at the total
mercy of other currencies. After the European Central Bank, the Swiss National
Bank (SNB) could be the next up to introduce negative interest rates. Its
officials meet on Thursday as the EUR/CHF cross has dropped below levels where the
SNB has sought to hurt speculative positioning in the past. Swiss policymakers
have the option of moving the €1.2000 floor, but why mess with something that
seems to be working and replace it entirely with something that is unproven?
newdigital, 2014.09.19 07:29
EURUSD Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)
The Euro may correct higher against the US Dollar
after forming a bullish Piercing Line candle pattern coupled with
positive RSI divergence. A daily close above trend line resistance at
1.2951 exposes the September 16 high at 1.2994. Alternatively, reversal
below above the 1.2858-71 area marked by the September 9 low and the
14.6% Fibonacci expansion opens the door for a test of the 23.6% level