Discussion of article "What is a trend and is the market structure based on trend or flat?" - page 7
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A trend, it's like Schrodinger's gopher - you can't see it, but it's there and you can't (pre)tell up/down until it's realised :-)
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jokes, jokes.
personal opinion: trend (in economy, in currency in trading) - 1) systematic and cyclic predominance of one movement/direction over another 2) for a long time 3) change is caused by objective factors (and is accompanied by info-causes).
there cannot be a "trend" much shorter than a quarter, any movement without volatility is a sign of crisis, it is impossible to "catch" a change of trend simply by chart.
In some cases it is possible to "catch" a trend change on the chart - there are methods of searching for overbought/oversold zones for this purpose (in technical terms).
But you are right that it is impossible to do it always, even when using fundamental analysis in addition to technical analysis.
And the reason is that the process of price movement is a complex non-stationary process, in which, even when using an elementary structure (a non-vanishing M-shape),
the scale of this form changes when the amplitude decreases (there is a "slipping", the process goes to a smaller scale).
This is the reason for predicting a trend reversal that is inevitably smaller than 100%.
A trend, it's like Schrodinger's gopher - you can't see it, but it's there and you can't (pre)tell up/down until it's realised :-)
---
jokes, jokes.
personal opinion: trend (in economy, in currency in trading) - 1) systematic and cyclic predominance of one movement/direction over another 2) for a long time 3) change is caused by objective factors (and is accompanied by info-causes).
there cannot be a "trend" much shorter than a quarter, any movement without volatility is a sign of crisis, it is impossible to "catch" a change of trend simply by chart.
All market movements are oscillatory, absolutely all of them. In other words, it is always flat. A trend is a part of a flat, when the price changes unidirectionally. I disagree about "much shorter than a quarter", I trade weekly trend myself. It exists and is caused by the system of paying salaries to traders, it is weekly. There is intraday trend, in general, everything here is determined by time horizon and understanding of factors influencing the price movement. It is impossible to trade a trend without understanding the process.
It is very easy to catch the point of a possible trend reversal, I have an indicator that does it for a couple of hundred lines. Difficulties appear when you start to recognise a reversal or correction. It is easily filtered by the same trend. 1.A reversal signal. 2.Trend breakout. As I understand, this is how Sperandeo traded.
In some cases, it is possible to "catch" a trend change on the chart - there are methods of searching for overbought/oversold zones for this purpose (in technical terms).
But you are right that it is impossible to do it always, even when using fundamental analysis in addition to technical analysis.
And the reason is that the process of price movement is a complex non-stationary process, in which, even when using an elementary structure (non-disappearing M-shape),
the scale of this form changes when the amplitude decreases (the process slips into a smaller scale).
This is the reason for predicting a trend reversal that is inevitably smaller than 100%.
I did a couple of months with my daughter. She resigned from the position of deputy in an organisation with a budget of 60 billion rubles. Before that she was a deputy minister in the Moscow region. Now she earns more on the foreign exchange market. Practically no risk.
I've been with my daughter for a couple of months. She resigned from the post of deputy in an organisation with a budget of 60 billion roubles. Before that, she was deputy minister in the Moscow region. Now she earns more on the foreign exchange market. Practically no risk.
I need you to study with me too, please.
I need you to study with me, too, please.
Max, you're out! You need to be a deputy minister at least in the village, otherwise - no way :)
Max, you're screwed! You have to be a deputy minister at least in the village, otherwise there is no way :)
I'll go to the deputy ministry for such a two-month training.
All market movements are oscillatory, absolutely all of them. In other words, it is always flat. A trend is a part of a flat, when the price changes unidirectionally. I disagree about "much shorter than a quarter", I trade weekly trend myself. It exists and is caused by the system of paying salaries to traders, it is weekly. There is an intraday trend, in general, everything here is determined by time horizon and understanding of factors influencing the price movement. It is impossible to trade a trend without understanding the process.
It is very easy to catch the point of a possible trend reversal, I have an indicator that does it for a couple of hundred lines. Difficulties appear when you start to recognise a reversal or correction. It is easily filtered by the same trend. 1.A reversal signal. 2.Trend breakout. As I understand, this is how Sperandeo traded.
"Trend is part of a flat" is a completely incorrect statement.
These are different states of market dynamics (two different sections of the elementary structure - M-shape).
A correction can be distinguished from a reversal in the following way:
- by the depth of correction (if the correction is more than 50%, the probability of a reversal increases, if it is more than 62%, the probability of a reversal increases sharply).
- by the activity of candles forming the correction (candle body amplitude, shadow amplitude).
"The trend is part of the flat" is a completely false statement.
These are different states of market dynamics (two different sections of the elementary structure - M-forms).
A correction can be distinguished from a reversal in the following way:
- by the depth of correction (if the correction is more than 50%, the probability of a reversal increases, if it is more than 62%, the probability of a reversal increases sharply).
- by the activity of candles forming the correction (candle body amplitude, shadow amplitude).
If at least something, at least somewhere would increase from 50% to 62% (with equal outcomes in the case of take or stop), then any owner of a martingale would become rich.
If anything, anywhere would increase from 50% to 62% (with equal outcomes in the case of take or stop), any martingale owner would be golden.
That's a true statement) Although I know some people who got rich on martingale..... They sold robots based on martin in insta). Apparently, the difference from 50% appears when you start selling grails to people who don't know anything.