D1 price is ranging between 1315.76 resistance and 1280.65 support level trying to break Sinkou Span A line of Ichimoku indicator for the price to be fully reversed from primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition.
is inside Ichimoku cloud with Chinkou Span line which is near to be crossing with the price for good breakdown to primary bearish by Sinkou Span A crossing.
is ranging between 1296.90 resistance and 1279.57 support levels with primary bearish.
D1 price will break 1280.65 support level on close bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement to primary bearish market condition.If not so it will be ranging market condition within primary bullish.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on XAUUSD price movement for this coming week)
2014-08-05 04:30 GMT (or 06:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Cash Rate]
2014-08-05 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]
2014-08-06 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Trade Balance]
2014-08-08 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Monetary Policy Statement]
SUMMARY : bearish
TREND : ranging
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The fractal analysis of the markets is used in the indicator operation algorithm. According to the fractals theory, after the breakthrough of the fractal level confirmed by the closing price located below or above the fractal, the trend wave in the direction of the breakthrough starts to develop. Until the fractal has been passed in the opposite direction, the trend is considered to be acting even if the price is flat or moves backwards. If a bullish fractal has been previously broken through on
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2014.08.02 10:26
newdigital, 2014.08.03 15:21
XAUUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)
Gold prices are lower for a third consecutive week with the precious
metal off by 0.90% to trade at $1295 ahead of the New York close on
Friday. The losses mark a 2.47% decline for the month of July and come
amid renewed strength in the greenback with the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar
Index breaking through trendline resistance dating back to the 2013
high on the back of a stellar 2Q GDP print and a more upbeat assessment
of the economy from the Federal Reserve. However with a miss on the
July employment report and a massive sell-off in broader equity
markets, the gold bulls may not be ready to give up just yet.
The release of the second quarter GDP figures on Wednesday fueled a
massive rally in the US Dollar after the print showed an annualized
growth rate of 4% q/q, far surpassing expectations of a 3% read. The
release also saw an upward revision to the 1Q print from -2.9% to -2.1%
with personal consumption and also topping market estimates. The FOMC
interest rate decision released later that day further exacerbated the
dollar’s move with the policy statement citing a more cautiously
optimistic assessment of the labor markets and inflation while
explicitly noting the reasons for the sole descent from Mr Charles
Plosser, “who objected to the guidance indicating that it likely will be
appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds
rate for "a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends,"
because such language is time dependent and does not reflect the
considerable economic progress that has been made toward the Committee's
goals.” The developments saw interest expectations bought in with the
greenback mounting an offensive that took to the dollar index to highs
not seen since April as US Treasury yields moved higher.
The July NFP report came in short of market expectations with a print
of 209K missing calls for a read of 230K with the headline unemployment
rate ticking higher to 6.2% from 6.1%. Despite the uptick however,
it’s important to note that the move was accompanied by a broadening of
the labor force with the participation rate moving up to 62.9% from
62.8% and an upward revision to last month’s blowout print NFP print
from 288K to 298K. With the dollar seemingly well supported here,
topside advances in gold are likely to remain limited with the biggest
variable for gold traders being the recent sell-off in risk assets.
Looking ahead to next week, traders will be closely eying the slew of
central bank rate decision on tap with the RBA, BoJ, ECB and BoE on
tap. Look for broader market sentiment to steer gold prices with a more
significant sell-off in stocks likely to help support the battered
metal in the near-term.
From a technical standpoint, the July calendar month proved to be a
textbook opening range play with the break of the initial monthly lows
on the 14th shifting the bias to the short side mid-month. The end
result saw gold close July AT THE LOWS before rebounding off near-term
support on the back of Friday’s NFP miss. Support now stands at the
61.8% retracement of the June advance at $1280 and this level will now
serve as our initial range low as we open up August trade. Key support
and our bullish invalidation threshold rests just lower in the
zone between $1260-$1270- a region which is defined by key longer-term
Fibonacci ratios and has served as a major pivot in gold dating back to
June of 2013. Resistance stands at last week’s high at $1312 and is
backed by our bearish invalidation level at $1320/21. Friday’s rally
has now pared the entire Thursday decline and with the USDOLLAR index
looking to post an outside reversal candle at fresh three-month highs,
the risk for a near-term continued push higher in Gold (lower in USD)
to open the month remains. As such, while our broader outlook remains
weighted to the downside we’ll maintain a more neutral tone heading into
the start of the month pending a break of the initial July opening
ranged. Bottom line: looking for an early-mid month rally to sell.
forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2014.08.05 06:23
2014-08-05 01:45 gmt (or 03:45 mq mt5 time) | [cny - hsbc services pmi]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for aud in our case)
[cny - hsbc services pmi] = level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry. it's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly
to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the
most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
china services pmi slides to flat in july
the services sector in china slipped to no change in july, the
latest survey from markit economics revealed on tuesday in its latest
performance of service index - which came in with a score of 50.0.
that's down from 53.1 in june.
a score below 50 signals contraction in a sector, while a reading above 50 means expansion.
metatrader trading platform screenshots
xauusd, m5, 2014.08.05
metaquotes software corp., metatrader 5, demo
xauusd m5 : gold price movement by cny - hsbc services pmi news event
newdigital, 2014.08.03 16:01
Gold (XAUUSD) Technical Analysis for the week of August 4, 2014
The gold markets as you can see fell during the course of the week, but
overall found enough support just below the $1300 level to bounce and
form something along the lines of a hammer. This hammer of course isn’t
perfect, but it does tell us that the market still has a bit of a fight
in it as far as keeping somewhat afloat. Ultimately, we believe that the
market has back towards the $1350 level, and as a result we have no
interest in selling. We think it could be choppy, but ultimately this
market is fairly bullish.
XAUUSD D1 price did not break 1280.65 support from above to below - we are having opposite situation for now: ranging market condition.
The nearest support level (instead of 1280.65) is 1279.57 for now, and the neatest resistance level is 1303.39 with 1312.16 as the key resistance.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
XAUUSD, D1, 2014.08.06
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
newdigital, 2014.08.07 10:48
Price & Time Analysis for GOLD (based on dailyfx article)
XAUUSD, D1, 2014.08.07
newdigital, 2014.08.07 17:09
2014-08-07 11:00 GMT (or 13:00 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the BOE to other banks. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation
- traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates
will change in the future.
Bank Of England Holds Rates Steady As Expected
The Bank of England once again kept its key rate at a record low on
Thursday, sticking to its forward guidance even as the strong pace of
economic recovery has augmented speculation for a rate hike late this
The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee decided to keep
its key bank rate unchanged at 0.50 percent and the asset purchase
programme at GBP 375 billion.
With the strong economic recovery
and unemployment falling more sharply than estimated, some members of
the panel are likely to have favored a rate hike. The minutes of the
previous meeting also signaled that some policymakers are getting closer
to a rate hike call.
The current 0.50 interest rate is the
lowest since the central bank was established in 1694 and it has heavily
reduced the interest income of savers. The unconventional measures were
announced during the financial crisis to shore up the economy.
several instance BoE Chief Mark Carney said the interest rate will have
to start rising to maintain price stability as the economy normalizes,
but there is no pre-set timing for that action.
may not have been unanimous and a rate hike this year cannot be ruled
out, said Samuel Tombs, a senior UK economist at Capital Economics. Even
so, the outlook of low inflation and sluggish wage growth suggests that
interest rates will rise only gradually.
The minutes, due on
August 20, will give insight into factors that compelled policymakers to
call for an early action. James Knightley, an ING Bank NV economist
said he would expect to see one, possibly two members of the MPC having
voted for a rate hike at today's meeting.
XAUUSD, M5, 2014.08.07
D1 bar was opened at 1312 today and did not break 1312 on close bar yet.
Yes, it is reversal from primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition for GOLD on D1 trimeframe. But it is not strong bullish yet sorry. Seems we need to wait some days more to know about it exactly for example:
XAUUSD, D1, 2014.08.08