Can't Find Any Profitable EA on MQL5 in past 5 years. - page 2

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Flavio Jarabeck
10091
Flavio Jarabeck  
james-smith:
I have never found a EA which can work with 50% accuracy. What's your experience please share with us thanks.

If you do not know how to trade manually, you will never get an automated trading solution... just because yo do not know how and why the market moves...

;)

Kenneth Parling
3614
Kenneth Parling  
james-smith:
I have never found a EA which can work with 50% accuracy. What's your experience please share with us thanks.

Sad that you can't find anything that suits you......So my question will be - Why don't you simply develop your own and your like it seems infinity search will come to an end!

Icham Aidibe
11540
Icham Aidibe  
Kenneth Parling:

Sad that you can't find anything that suits you......So my question will be - Why don't you simply develop your own and your like it seems infinity search will come to an end!

Absolutely, do it yourself.
ffoorr
1288
ffoorr  
james-smith:
I have never found a EA which can work with 50% accuracy. What's your experience please share with us thanks.

And what is most disturbing is that no one of the EA posted in the MQL5' article, and that are showing profit in those article, did not make any money when backtested.

Andreas Bauer
1455
Andreas Bauer  

Actually I have the idea, that mql5 should open an under-category of signals; signals, that are solely based on the EAs here in mql5 marketsplace.

This way sellers would have a platform to demonstrate their EAs and let it compete with other EAs, and we - as buyers - would have that great overview.

Zhi Ruo
19
Zhi Ruo  
Because if there is any one who find we will keep a secret. Remember that. They are plenty very good ea but need to find them.
Young Ho Seo
47990
Young Ho Seo  
james-smith:
I have never found a EA which can work with 50% accuracy. What's your experience please share with us thanks.


I think that many trader here will agree with you and your results including myself. I really appreciated that you brought this to surface with right question.

I will try to explain the big gap between knowledge of using EAs (i.e. trading robots) and your experience as consumer.


Typical Scenario losing money with EAs and robots

This is the typical three step scenario how novice trader starts to appointed to the signal subscription or buying EAs and etc. Then they can lose a lot of money pretty quickly with too optimistic thinking.

1. You have an idea of trading robot can beat human trader from news and mess media, etc. 

2. Then you see many signal copying adverts on the internet with unrealistically high growth was achieved in backtesting and even forward testing with all sort of sweet words, etc.

3. You copied their signal and you never get the same results but losing money ever fast (the speed of losing money is even faster with high frequency or scalping robot because they are high frequency.)


Starters must read

1. Backtesting is never indicative of future performance

2. Profitability in Live forward testing can only result in one or very few brokers. This means that many times it will not work for you when you copied the signal.

3. Live forward testing result is not absolutely trustable source either. It is possible to easily produce good live forward testing results for 6 month or 1 year or even 2 years and they can blow up all their account in 1 day (Black swan).

4. EAs and trading robot are not updated with real world market news and economic data release. Hence, they can always go against the market for big news release.

5. EAs (i.e. Trading robots) are operating in black box mode. Hence, you have less control over their operation.


Does any one seen some wiered Japanese or Asian named signal provider on mql5.com few year ago how he blown his signal account for some over 1000 subscribers ? I forgot his name.


Here is why

Expert Advisor or trading robot or signal copying is a highly specialized statistical product but this is least emphasized by MetaTrader users and signal provider.

Why? Because you need to understand how the simulation technique, data and strategy contributes towards your profitability (one more factor is real world technology around internet and network configuration).


What you are seeing in backtesting and some forward testing is typically strategy part only.

Some novice traders are missing to see how the simulatin technique, data and real world network configuration plays a role in the profitability. 


How these three simulation technique, data and strategy contributes towards the profitability are best described in the language of math, statistics and computer science (Not theoretical math but applied math, these two are totally different. Applied Medical statistics and applied geo statsics are often great resource and knowledge reservoir for this).

Until you fully understand all these, I will not recommend EA and trading robot.

Typically this is quite intensive learning skipped by many starters and traders.

I do understand you want to make money quickly But can we go long way short really ?

If you try to shorten the path by skipping them, eventually you will take even longer time than people taking the right path from the beginning.


What options do we have?

Your option to the profitable path in financial trading is either you become great applied statistician (i.e. mathematical trader) or great trader (i.e. manual trader knowing how to apply fundamental and technical analysis).

Question is which professional trader would choose to become ?

If you are unfamiliar with numbers and quantitative theory like mean variance, capital market line , error correction model, integrated moving average, cointegration, ADF test, Phillips–Perron test , two-way handshake, three way handshake tcp/ip, REST api, etc,

I think I will recommend to become manual trader.

Do not forget that we always have an option for not trading. :)


Summary

EAs and Trading robots are a highly specialized and sophisticated statistical product but they are often treated like piece of shampoo bottle sold for $99.

Before using them, user must understand how simulation technique, data, strategy and real world network configuration contributes towards the profitability.

Otherwise, you still have an option to trade manually with fundamental and visual aid of technical tools like indicators and patterns.

I think that manual trading is much more friendly for all level of traders because you trade as you see and as you feel.

Often staying too long with black box trading system like EAs and Trading Robots will not give you any education or any transferable knowledge you can use for future.


We will not discuss all these in this post because this is such a long story.


Plus

You stated success rate 50%. it is good but you forgot to specifiy reward/risk ratio along. 50% success rate can be profitable only if you are providing right reward/risk ratio.

two-way handshake and three-way handshake
two-way handshake and three-way handshake
  • 2014.05.21
  • Faris NasutionFaris Nasution 1,19521020
  • stackoverflow.com
I was reading a book about computer network written by Tanenbaum specifically about handshaking. In there he explains two-way handshake is not enough, considering this case: A wants to transfer money to B, so A sends a SYN to B, and then B sends an ACK to A. Connection is established and then A can send his money and then drop the connection...
james-smith
131
james-smith  
Keith Watford:

You are opening yourself to all manner of spam with posts such as yours.

Recommendations of commercial products are not allowed in the forum, so anybody posting such recommendations will be banned.

I have been in forex since 2012 so i better know what's spam or scam :D

Felipe Ponce Aragon
1121
Felipe Ponce Aragon  
james-smith:

I have been in forex since 2012 so i better know what's spam or sc

I wouldn't mind to see some spam here.


Better spam and maybe some profit, than respect and no profit, which is how we are (most of us, maybe some of you guys are really making a profit for more than 3 years but you guys know that most of you don't). So I think we do need some spam. Please, someone come and spam us!

james-smith
131
james-smith  
Flavio Jarabeck:

If you do not know how to trade manually, you will never get an automated trading solution... just because yo do not know how and why the market moves...

;)

do you trade forex?

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