New article Studying candlestick analysis techniques (part I): Checking existing patterns has been published:
In this article, we will consider popular candlestick patterns and will try to find out if they are still relevant and effective in today's markets. Candlestick analysis appeared more than 20 years ago and has since become quite popular. Many traders consider Japanese candlesticks the most convenient and easily understandable asset price visualization form.
In order to evaluate the efficiency of a pattern, let us develop a
universal algorithm for evaluating its performance. Figure 1 shows the
general scheme of action. Let us take a closer look at it.
Author: Alexander Fedosov
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thx for posting this interesting article!
I think you draw your conclusions bit too quickly - you can do much more! :)
It's outright correct to first compute probabilities based on counting the occurrences of certain patterns. However, you could preprocess / filter out the detected bars before crunching the odds.
For example, if you look at the doji patterns you could run an additional analysis for each occurring doji if it has been found at prominent places like resistance or support bands, which effectively generates a "higher quality" subset of dojis.
Additionally, this gentleman has some decent analysis ideas at the end of his video which you could integrate as well: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djj1Qbp-xv0
If you like some support or exchange ideas, feel free to contact me per PM.