What will be the effect of AI? - page 2
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Well, you said once in another post that you were not a newbie in the trading arena but now you state that "you asked this because you don't know what could be the effect..etc"
You misunderstood me, I am not a newbie in technical analysis, but I know very few things about economy, markets and how they work deeply. However, I think that a holy grail could exist in the future, I don't find it funny, it's just my opinion and I can be right, because we cannot know what discovery in technology will be made in 100 or 300 years. What you call "magical A.I." could be something in the future like your computer now, which would have been called "magical" in Middle Ages.
You misunderstood me, I am not a newbie in technical analysis, but I know very few things about economy, markets and how they work deeply. However, I think that a holy grail could exist in the future, I don't find it funny, it's just my opinion and I can be right, because we cannot know what discovery in technology will be made in 100 or 300 years. What you call "magical A.I." could be something in the future like your computer now, which would have been called "magical" in Middle Ages.
You are e entitled to express your own opinion of course, and we discussed something similar in the past as I remember but these discussions are kinda of sterile waste of time as I see this as a sort of sci-fiction scenario.
You are right that my computer and other advanced technologies today were not thinkable in the "middle ages" but these are improvements in regard to the calculations speed and other advanced tools which simplify the man's life but the fundamentals things are not changed at all, the same in trading.
Just to give a silly comparison: can you change the gravity force direction and reverse it in the future through technologies?
When you will understand the true nature of markets you will understand that they are a natural balance of capital forces and while you can improve your tools to limit losses and improve in your strategy camouflaging yourself, on the other hand retail masses can never lead on the "market owners"
You misunderstood me, I am not a newbie in technical analysis, but I know very few things about economy, markets and how they work deeply. However, I think that a holy grail could exist in the future, I don't find it funny, it's just my opinion and I can be right, because we cannot know what discovery in technology will be made in 100 or 300 years. What you call "magical A.I." could be something in the future like your computer now, which would have been called "magical" in Middle Ages.
Even without going 'til high frequency trading, there's already numberous very powerful EAs.
Oh you know the proverb... "Premier à l'école, dernier dans la vie" (<=> "Best in school, worst in life")
I can remember a time where they traded sea shells,
And those turned into gold coins,
And then into iron coins and paper,
And they turned into +5 Volt for 1 and -5 Volt or GND for 0.
Although the exchange mediums changed, the trades themselves stayed exactly the same.
Supply & demand,
Buy & Sell,
It won't be any AI, but think about a very few individuals that have enough to deflate and inflate at their own will.
These are able to create their future, and an AI is not.
I can remember a time where they traded sea shells,
And those turned into gold coins,
And then into iron coins and paper,
And they turned into +5 Volt for 1 and -5 Volt or GND for 0.
Although the exchange mediums changed, the trades themselves stayed exactly the same.
Supply & demand,
Buy & Sell,
It won't be any AI, but think about a very few individuals that have enough to deflate and inflate at their own will.
These are able to create their future, and an AI is not.
I understand, it is always a matter of buy and sell. But I think about this as a technical analyst, so I can say that the type of markets movement is changed, I mean the graph and how it moves is changed through the years: I don't have studied 20th century graphs, but I guess they were different (different volatility changes for example). So what I am wondering can be aligned with something written in many technical analysis books, that is "autoalimentation theory": traders behavior changes markets behaviour and features (ie: price movements). So I have a specific question: wonder about the same question but not thinking generally about financial world, where supply and demand rule, as you said, but about techical analysis which is specifically based on price, volume graph. If trading behaviour will change due to AI (or it could be another innovative technology), how would the graph look like? Would it change considerably?
I understand, it is always a matter of buy and sell. But I think about this as a technical analyst, so I can say that the type of markets movement is changed, I mean the graph and how it moves is changed through the years: I don't have studied 20th century graphs, but I guess they were different (different volatility changes for example). So what I am wondering can be aligned with something written in many technical analysis books, that is "autoalimentation theory": traders behavior changes markets behaviour and features (ie: price movements). So I have a specific question: wonder about the same question but not thinking generally about financial world, where supply and demand rule, as you said, but about techical analysis which is specifically based on price, volume graph. If trading behaviour will change due to AI (or it could be another innovative technology), how would the graph look like? Would it change considerably?
1) This last question is different from your initial question but it is as well a non-sense in fact:
2) Technical analysis track the past, fundamentals (or lack of them) lead the price's reasons to form trends, ranges or mixed situations based on capital flows.
3) Technical analysis is not the holy grail and it will never be so.
4) Charts are just charts and it is possible to find similar behaviors and patterns today just like in the 80's or 50's or 20's and even when japanese began to create japanese candle charts for rice trading. What can change is just cyclical volatility and other few aspects based on fundamental environments of the specific period of reference world configuration.
5) Think what you want but it is not some technology that can change the game (maybe the change can be just at some lower degree i.e. HFT make intraday trading harder because of price slippages etc..). I just repeat that technology is a tool to help human lighten up their work and it is not a "fundamental-rule changer".
6) Even if we want to give some credit at this sci-fiction scenario in a very distant future, I don't see where it would be useful to know at these days; for example we know for sure (?) that the sun will implode and burn within 5 billion years; how much important is to know this today for you? Probably it's not important at all.
I understand, it is always a matter of buy and sell. But I think about this as a technical analyst, so I can say that the type of markets movement is changed, I mean the graph and how it moves is changed through the years: I don't have studied 20th century graphs, but I guess they were different (different volatility changes for example). So what I am wondering can be aligned with something written in many technical analysis books, that is "autoalimentation theory": traders behavior changes markets behaviour and features (ie: price movements). So I have a specific question: wonder about the same question but not thinking generally about financial world, where supply and demand rule, as you said, but about techical analysis which is specifically based on price, volume graph. If trading behaviour will change due to AI (or it could be another innovative technology), how would the graph look like? Would it change considerably?
I have been trading this one strategy that has been working since the 80's, now although i agree that the amount of ticks and the ease of trading has become much faster and better, the strategy still works.
I can compare this to a black&white television set in comparison to a 4K Ultra HD set , the picture still resembles the same thing, although the quality differs.
I do not believe that AI systems will break the market, but if the strategy stops working i will let you know.