Something Interesting in Financial Video April 2014 - page 4

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Sergey Golubev
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newdigital, 2014.04.12 18:30

DAX forecast for the week of April 14, 2014, Technical Analysis

The DAX as you can see fell hard during the week, closing near the €9300 level. This of course is a very bearish candle and we believe that the market may very well continue lower from here, especially considering that there was a gap on Friday. The €9000 level has been very supportive in the past, and because of that we think that a supportive candle in that general region would be perfect for a buy signal. It doesn’t have to be on the weekly chart, it can be on the daily chart as well, but either way we would be very interested in buying in that area.





Sergey Golubev
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newdigital, 2014.04.12 18:31

NASDAQ Forecast April 14, 2014, Technical Analysis

The NASDAQ as you can see initially try to rally during the week, but found enough resistance at the 4200 level, sending the market much lower. We found the 4000 level supportive though, as one would expect. The end of the day on Friday saw the market stopped, and as a result we think that this market will more than likely find a supportive candle in this region. We are more than willing to buy a supportive candle in this region, but recognize that closing at the bottom of the range suggests that we probably have a little bit of selling to do still.





Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2014.04.12 18:33

S&P 500 forecast for the week of April 14, 2014, Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 fell during the course of the week, breaking the bottom of the shooting star from the previous week. This of course is a very negative sign, but as you can see the market has plenty of support down near the 1780 area. Down in that general vicinity we would expect to see support, and then would start buying on that type of candle in that particular area. This signal could come on the daily chart though, but at the end of the day we believe that ultimately this market should continue to go higher






Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2014.04.12 18:35

Dow Jones 30 forecast for the week of April 14, 2014, Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones 30 as you can see fell hard during the week, slamming into the 16,000 region. We are still well within consolidation though, and as a result we think that there’s plenty of support just below in order to keep this market higher. We would not sell this market right now, and as a result we are looking for some type of supportive candle in order to start buying. Ultimately, we think that this market continues higher and breaking above the recent high would of course be given the next leg up.





Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2014.04.12 18:36

Silver forecast for the week of April 14, 2014, Technical Analysis

The silver markets as you can see went back and forth during the course of the week, essentially doing nothing. The $20 level just above is significant resistance, and as a result we feel that the market will probably still tread water in this general vicinity. However, we think that the market is essentially trying to form some type of a bottom now, and as a result we should go to the $22 level. A break of the top of the weekly range is reason enough to start buying in our opinion. We have no interest in selling until we get below the $19 level.





Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2014.04.12 18:38

Crude Oil forecast for the week of April 14, 2014, Technical Analysis

The light sweet crude markets rose during the week after initially falling down towards the $100 level. The $100 level of course offered enough support to cause the market to bounce and test the 104.50 level, an area that has been resistance previously. Because of this, we feel that the market will more than likely continue to have bullish momentum, and a pullback here should offer a nice buying opportunity. On the other hand, if we break above the 104.50 level right away, we feel that the market would the $105 level, and then ultimately the $110 level. We are bullish of this market longer term anyway, and believe that there is a significant amount of support down to the $100 level without a doubt. It is down in that area that we feel that the most buying pressure would reenter the market, as it would become more of a longer-term bullish move.



Brent

The Brent markets had a back and forth week as well, but testing the $105 level for support significantly, and thereby made a serious attempt to break down. The fact that we could not do so of course makes us more bullish, and we realize that the market heads to the $108 level and find resistance there as well. We need to get over the $108.50 level in order to get overly bullish, and at that point time we feel that the market would head to the $111 area. In that general vicinity, we expect to see a significant amount of resistance, but ultimately believe that the market will break through that barrier. Once that happens, all bets are off and we would suspect Brent would head to the $115 level as it is the next natural large, round, psychologically significant number on the chart. Don’t get us wrong, it’s not that we expect this market to be bullish in a straight line, just that overall and over time, the buyers should win out. Selling therefore isn’t something that we are interested in, at least until we get below the $104 level.






Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2014.04.12 18:40

Natural Gas forecast for the week of April 14, 2014, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets rose during the course of the week, breaking above the $4.60 handle. That being the case, the market looks as if it is ready to continue going higher, but the question then becomes whether or not we can make a fresh new high. If we can get above there, then the market should continue to go higher. However, if we fail to break above that you will see this market pulled back down. It is a bit disconcerting that the market has shot straight up and hasn’t pulled back significantly yet. Because of that we are suspicious.





Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2014.04.12 18:43

USD/JPY forecast for the week of April 14, 2014, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair fell hard enough during the week to break down below the bottom of the shooting star and test the 101.50 level. That is the bottom of the reason consolidation area that we’ve been stuck in, so quite frankly we don’t really see much in this chart at the moment. We don’t think any things change, and quite frankly feel that the market is simply biding its time if you will, in order to go higher. After all, when markets go higher, they will often pull back slightly in order to go higher after building momentum.

The uptrend line that strong on the chart shows that we are certainly still bullish, and as a result we feel that the market will continue to find buyers every time we dip. With that being said, we would like to see some type of supportive candle, even if it’s only on the four hour chart in order to continue to go higher in the uptrend. We feel that the market should continue to go to the 103 level again and again, eventually breaking higher to the 105 level.

The 105 level will continue to be resistive, but we feel that the market should find enough momentum to eventually break out above that area, which of course would be very bullish turn of events. We believe that the uptrend is the real deal, and that the interest-rate differential should continue to drive the markets higher given enough time. Ultimately, we think that this is the beginning of a longer-term buy-and-hold type of phase for the USD/JPY, something that we have seen over and over again through the decades. Granted, we always many should dip a little bit lower but it would not surprise us at all to see an uptrend form that last for 3 to 5 years, which is common for this pair as it tends to do well in “risk on” type of marketplaces as the Japanese yen it tends to be considered a safety currency. As long as the Bank of Japan continues to try and devalue the Yen, we’re still bullish.





Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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newdigital, 2014.04.12 18:44

USD/CAD forecast for the week of April 14, 2014, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair initially fell during the week, but found enough support to bounce and form a nice-looking hammer this hammer of course is a very bullish sign, and the fact that it is focused on the 1.09 area leads us to believe that the market should continue to go higher given enough time. That being the case, we are bullish of the USD/CAD pair given enough time, as the bullish momentum should continue based upon not only the hammer, but the fact that the hammer formed exactly where did leads us to believe that we are going to continue to consolidate in a market that has been very bullish to begin with. Typically, and these situations consolidation in some been continuation.

The recent action in this marketplace suggests to us that perhaps a rest was needed, and as a result we should continue to go higher, probably testing the 1.12 level which is the top of this rectangle. With that, if we break above the 1.12 level, this market should head to the 1.15 level given enough time. At the end of the day, we believe that the Canadian dollar is in trouble overall, and this hammer of course only suggests the same thing. After all, the Bank of Canada recently suggested that Ray cuts warrant necessarily out of the question, which is the complete opposite with going on in the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is trying to cut back on quantitative easing which of course is bullish for the US dollar.

It is not until we break down below this hammer that we would consider selling, but at the end of the day we believe that the support comes back into play at the 1.07 level, which extends all the way down to the 1.06 handle. With that, we would only be short-term bearish, and then start looking for the supportive candle in order to go higher as we would still be in an uptrend at that point as well. One thing to keep in mind though, you can draw an uptrend line that would touch the bottom of this hammer.





Sergey Golubev
Moderator
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Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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newdigital, 2014.04.12 18:46

NZD/USD forecast for the week of April 14, 2014, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair fell after initially rising during the week. However, you can see that we have broken out to the upside at least momentarily, and as a result we feel that the market will continue to go higher, probably aiming for the 0.90 handle given enough time. We do believe that the bullishness is warranted, and in fact will continue to go on as the market continues to build more of a “risk on” type of attitude. With that, we are bullish of the New Zealand dollar, and pullback should represent buying opportunities.





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