AUDUSD Technical Analysis 23.03 - 30.03: Correction within Bullish Ranging
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2014.03.21 18:42
Forex Weekly Outlook Mar. 24-28The US dollar had a successful week, rising against most currencies thanks to a hawkish move from the Federal Reserve. German Ifo Business Climate, Inflation data in the UK, US consumer sentiment and housing data as well as jobless claims are the highlight events . Here is an outlook on the main market-movers this week.
- German Ifo Business Climate: Tuesday, 9:00. German business sentiment edged up in February to 111.3 from 110.6 in January. The release was better than the 110.7 predicted by analysts. The rise suggests that economic recovery is continuing to improve despite some weak figures in exports and industrial output. The survey shows retailers are more satisfied with current economic conditions and consumer spending is rising. A small decline to 110.9 is predicted this time.
- UK inflation data: Tuesday, 9:30. Inflation in the UK fell in January to 1.9% from 2.0% in the previous month due to lower tobacco prices. The rate declined below the Bank of England's 2% target for the first time in more than four years. In the first half of 2013 inflation nearly reached 3.0% but descended in the second half of the year. Prime minister David Cameron commented that this fall in inflation is further evidence that UK’s economic plan is working. Low inflation enables future planning without surprises. Another decline to 1.7% is anticipated now.
- US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. Americans were more pessimistic about the US economy in February according to the Conference Board survey. Consumer confidence declined to 78.1 from 79.4 in January, contrary to predictions for 80.2 points. The Expectations Index, fell to 75.7 points in February from 80.8 January's 80.8. Responders were concerned over the short-term outlook for business conditions, jobs, and earnings. Meanwhile, current conditions assessment has improved. Consumer confidence is expected to improve to 78.7.
- US New Home Sales: Tuesday, 14:00. New U.S. home acquisitions edged up to a 468,000 annualized pace in January, exceeding forecasts of a 406,000 reading. This five year high release was preceded by 427,000 in December, indicating the housing sector remains strong despite recent falls, even in the midst of unusually cold weather. If the job market continues to improve, the housing sector would return to solid growth. Home sales are expected to reach 447K this time.
- US Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 12:30. Orders for long-lasting U.S. goods excluding transportation unexpectedly climbed 1.1% in January following a 1.9% plunge in December, suggesting factory activity may yet improve despite recent falls. However, durable goods fell 1.0% in January after posting a 4.3% fall in the previous month. Nevertheless, the harsh weather conditions had a big role in the recent industrial decline. The manufacturing sector is expected to do better in the coming months. A small rise of 0.3% is anticipated this time.
- US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. US jobless claims rose less than expected last week, increasing 5,000 to 320,000 Analysts expected claims to reach 327,000. The four-week moving average declined by 3,500 to 327,000. Continuing claims increased to 2,889,000, compared to a downwardly revised 2,848,000 recorded a week earlier. The better than expected release suggests the weak Non-farm payrolls release was a onetime event affected by the cold weather. Jobless claims are expected to reach 326,000.
- US Pending Home Sales: Thursday, 14:00. Contracts to buy existing U.S. homes edged up 0.1% in January after a 5.8 drop caused by unusual winter storms, harsh weather and limited inventory. This small scale rise was less than the 2.9 climb anticipated by analysts. Nevertheless, conditions are expected to improve in the coming months despite tight credit conditions. A further rose of 0.2% is expected now.
Currently we are at 0.9096 after the bounce north of the trend line. We are looking for a bullish continuation to the R4 0.9144 Fibo area @0.9128 The average daily true range ATR(14) for the pair currently is 0.0014 (High Volatility)
Summary: STRONG BUY
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2014.03.23 07:38
AUDUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)
Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Neutral
- Australian Continues to Look at External Factors for Directional Guidance
US Economic Data, Fed-Speak Calendar at the Forefront for Price Action
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2014.03.24 07:22
2013-03-24 01:45 GMT (or 02:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Flash Manufacturing PMI]
- past data is 48.5
- forecast data is 48.7
- actual data is 48.1 according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
==========
China Manufacturing PMI Hits Eight-Month Low - HSBC
China's manufacturing sector fell deeper into contraction in March, the latest flash PMI from HSBC and Markit Economics revealed on Monday. The index came in with a seasonally adjusted score of 48.1, touching an eight-month low.
The headline figure is down from 48.5 in February, and it was well shy of forecasts for 48.7 - and it moves the index further below the mark of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.
Among the key components of the survey, the output index sank to 47.3 from 48.8 in the previous month - hitting an 18-month low.
Among other components, new orders, work backlogs, output prices, input prices and quantity of purchases all continued to contract at an accelerating rate.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
AUDUSD M5 : 32 pips price movement by CNY - Flash Manufacturing PMI news event
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2014.03.23 16:57
AUD/USD Fundamentals - weekly outlook: March 24 - 28The Australian dollar ended Friday’s session higher against its U.S. counterpart, but gains remained limited amid fresh tensions between the West and Russia over Ukraine.
Monday, March 24
- China is to release the preliminary estimate of the HSBC manufacturing index, a leading indicator of economic health.
- The U.S. is to release preliminary data on manufacturing activity.
- The U.S. is to release report on house price inflation and consumer confidence, as well as official data on new home sales.
- The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production.
- The U.S. is to publish final data on fourth quarter economic growth. The nation is also to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims and private sector data on pending home sales.
- The U.S. is to round up the week with a report on personal spending and revised data on consumer sentiment.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2014.03.25 07:03
Fundamental indicators explained (based on dailyfx article)
- News events can help us decipher an economy’s strength
- GDP, CPI and Employment figures can change the demand of a currency
- Fundamental traders look to pair currencies from a strong economy to a weaker one
GDP
First we have the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The GDP growth rate looks specifically at changes in growth patterns of an economy by tabulating household consumption, government spending, domestic investment’s, and net exports for a country. As growth increases it means an economy is expanding and can cause a high demand for a nation’s currency as that currency is needed to make new purchases. As well, a contraction or slowdown in growth can have the opposite effect.
Ultimately this growth (or lack of it) causes inflationary pressures in the market place. With central banks looking to potentially change monetary policy due to these results GDP announcements can become volatile events.
CPI
Next, we will look at the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI is another
economic indicator that is released on a monthly basis by most major
economies. It is designed to give a timely glimpse into current
inflation levels in an economy. Inflation tracked through CPI looks
specifically at purchasing power and the rise of prices of goods and
services. If prices are rising drastically this can be signs of growth
as well as rising inflation.
In most scenarios, if CPI is released lower than expected, normally this would influence Reserve Banksto consider stimulating the economy by opting for lower interest rates or commit to new open market operations to increase the money supply. Conversely a higher CPI reading suggests an inflating economy. This would give cause for increasing current interest rates and thus affect demand for a currency.
Employment Figures
Lastly fundamental traders should monitor employment figures to get a
bearing on the strength or weakness of an underlying economy. A booming
economy will offer many employment opportunities and drive down
unemployment figures. As business contracts, the opposite is true. As
unemployment rises, it can have a devastating effect on an underlying
economy.
While there are a variety of employment statistics that can be tracked
one of the most watched is the Non Farm Payroll (NFP) figure released in
the United States. This event shows new jobs added to the workforce
outside of the agricultural sector and shows the strength of the US
economy. As this number is released fundamental traders will watch for
opportunities to buy or sell currencies coupled with the dollar.
D1 price is in bullish ranging between 0.9138 resistance and 0.8923 support levels since 12th of March this year.
H4 timeframe - market rally is finishing with the correction to be started with 0.9100 resistance level; Chinkou Span line is crossing historical price on open bar from above to below for possible breakdown.
If Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator will cross H4 price on close bar from above to below, and if D1 price will break 0.8994 support level so we may see breakdown with good correction within primary H4 bullish.
If not so the ranging market will be continuing on D1.
- Recommendation for long: n/a
- Recommendation to go short: watch the price for breaking 0.8994 support level on D1 timeframe for possible sell trade
- Trading Summary: bullish
0.9138 resistance was broker on D1 timeframe and D1 price is going to continuing the primary bullish but on open bar only sorry. W1 price did not break 0.9138 resistance yet so I am expecting the ranging market condition will be continuing.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2014.03.26 08:00
2013-03-26 03:30 GMT (or 04:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Gov Stevens Speech]
- past data is n/a
- forecast data is n/a
- actual data is n/a according to the latest press release
Speech at the 17th Annual Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference, in Hong Kong
==========
RBA Chief Sees Encouraging Signs Of Broader Private Demand Growth
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said there is encouraging early evidence that the so-called 'handover' from mining-led demand growth to broader private demand growth is beginning.
He expects economic growth to continue and to strengthen a little later this year and pick up further during 2015.
"This outlook is, obviously, a balance between the large negative force of declining mining investment and, working the other way, the likely pick up in some other areas of demand helped by very low interest rates, improved confidence and so on, as well as higher resource shipments," central banker said.
RBA, in its biannual Financial Stability Report, cautioned that a cyclical upswing in housing prices when interest rates are low cannot continue indefinitely.
Although present conditions in the housing market are not assessed as posing a near-term risk to financial stability, the recent pick-up in momentum warrants close monitoring.
The bank advised investors and owner-occupiers not to base their decisions on an extrapolation of recent outcomes.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
AUDUSD M5 : 48 pips price movement by AUD - RBA Gov Stevens Speech news event
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
newdigital, 2014.03.27 06:35
AUDUSD Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)
Talking Points:
- AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support: 0.9177 (38.2% Fib exp.), 0.9132 (Mar 7 high)
- Resistance: 0.9233 (50% Fib exp.), 0.9290 (61.8% Fib exp.)
Prices are too close to relevant resistance to justify a long position from a risk/reward perspective. On the other hand, entering a short trade looks premature absent a new bearish reversal signal. We will continue to stand aside for now, waiting for a more attractive setup to present itself.
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
You agree to website policy and terms of use
D1 price is in bullish ranging between 0.9138 resistance and 0.8923 support levels since 12th of March this year.
H4 timeframe - market rally is finishing with the correction to be started with 0.9100 resistance level; Chinkou Span line is crossing historical price on open bar from above to below for possible breakdown.
If Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator will cross H4 price on close bar from above to below, and if D1 price will break 0.8994 support level so we may see breakdown with good correction within primary H4 bullish.
If not so the ranging market will be continuing on D1.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on AUDUSD price movement for this coming week)
2013-03-24 01:45 GMT (or 02:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Flash Manufacturing PMI]
2013-03-25 02:00 GMT (or 03:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - CB Leading Index]
2013-03-25 04:45 GMT (or 05:45 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Deputy Gov Speech]
2013-03-25 22:30 GMT (or 23:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Deputy Gov Speech]
2013-03-26 03:30 GMT (or 04:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Gov Stevens Speech]
2013-03-26 12:30 GMT (or 13:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]
Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on AUDUSD price movement
SUMMARY : bullish
TREND : correction
Intraday Chart